Market Review April 13 2012

Apr 13 • Market Reviews • 2979 Views • 1 Comment on Market Review April 13 2012

Economic events scheduled for today

03:00 – CNY – Chinese Fixed Asset Investment

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment measures the change in the total spending on non-rural capital investments such as factories, roads, power grids, and property.

03:00 – CNY – Chinese GDP (YoY)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

03:00 – CNY – Chinese Industrial Production

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

03:00 – CNY – Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

07:00 – EUR – German CPI (MoM)

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

07:00 – EUR – Finnish CPI (YoY)

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed bask of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys. From 1995 the weight structure is based on the European National Accounting System Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP).The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change over a specified period of time in the general level of prices of goods and services that a given population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. It compares a household’s cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period.

09:30 – GBP – PPI Input (MoM)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

13:30 – USD – Core CPI (MoM)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:55 – USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.  

18:00 – USD – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy

Just Released

China’s economic growth fell to its lowest level in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2012 amid weak trade and lending controls. The government reported on Friday the world’s second-largest economy grew by 8.1 per cent in the three months ending in March, its weakest expansion since the second quarter of 2009. China’s growth has slowed steadily since mid-2010 as global demand for its exports weakened and the Beijing government tightened lending and investment curbs to cool an overheated economy and politically dangerous inflation.

 

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Euro Dollar

The euro is trading at 1.3168 levels. Risk appetite gain momentum and the common currency is seen trading with a slight intraday positive bias as Spain bond yields fell after a board member of the European Central Bank indicated it may buy the nation’s debt. Support is seen at 1.3000 levels while strong resistance is seen at 1.3193 levels (21 and 55 days daily EMA).

The Sterling Pound

GBPUSD is trading at 1.59.53. The cable is trading strong vs. the greenback on the back of slight risk sentiment and positive BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y data yesterday. Support is seen at 1.5882 levels (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is at around 1.5965 levels. Exporters cover GBP/USD pair on upticks. GBP/INR is at 81.83 levels. Maintain Medium term Bearishness. Target 1.55 levels again. Exporters cover GBP/USD pair at current levels..

Asian –Pacific Currency

The Australian dollar is currently trading at 1.0369 levels. Risk sentiment and Unemployment Rate data in the morning boosted investors confidence and the currency rallied, increasing demand for higher yielding currencies like AUD. Support is seen at around 1.0229 levels and resistance is seen at 1.0436 levels (100 days daily EMA). USD/JPY is currently trading at 81.03 levels. CGPI y/y and M2 Money Stock y/y data came out better this morning leading to strength in Yen. Support is seen at 80.09 levels (50% retracement on the daily chart) while Resistance is at 81.81 levels (21 days daily EMA). Short Term maintain Bullish for the pair Target 85 levels.

Gold

Gold is currently trading at 1674.85 levels, trading in a steady range since yesterday after rising in trade for the past few days. Yields have risen tremendously for Spanish bonds in the past week alone. There has been great demand for physical gold from Asian giants like China and India. Also, on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya which falls on 24th of April jewelers see robust demand, especially post the 3 weeks strike against duties levied on the metal. Near term support is seen close to 1649.98 (21 days 8 hourly EMA) while the immediate resistance is seen near 1677.26 (55 days Daily EMA). Overall trend is still bearish sell on rallies around 1670-80 dollars.

Crude Oil

Oil is currently trading at 103.18 levels, bouncing back in trade after a fall for the past few days. The EIA said crude supplies rose 2.8 million barrels on the week ended April 6. Support comes at 98.395 levels (200days daily EMA) and resistance is seen near 103.57 levels (55 days daily EMA). Overall range bound between 100-105.

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