Markets start November nursing a hangover. A group of 47 AI and chip stocks has lost about $5 trillion in market value since October 6, even as much of the broader US market has held up. That split sets up a packed forex week ahead: Apple reports tonight, Americans vote tomorrow, and two central banks meet before Friday’s October jobs report.
US stock futures opened higher on Sunday evening, led by the Nasdaq. But whether that bounce has legs will depend on a calendar that’s packed from Monday to Friday.
A selloff, not a crash
The damage is concentrated. By Yahoo Finance’s count, those 47 AI and chip stocks lost roughly $5 trillion between October 6 and last Friday’s close, with Nvidia and Alphabet each down about $834 billion. By contrast, the other 625 large US stocks in its tally added about $1.3 trillion (Yahoo Finance).
Last week shows how unusual this is. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.6%, yet 9 of its 11 sectors rose 1% or more. Yahoo Finance found no other down week since at least 1999 where more than seven sectors gained that much.
The divergence suggests investors have been rotating away from AI names and into other parts of the market. That helps explain why both the bull and bear cases sound convincing right now. One camp says tech has further to fall. The other points to the midterm calendar: from the end of October in a midterm year, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months later in all 19 cases since 1950, based on price alone. It’s a striking historical pattern, though hardly a guarantee of what comes next.
Monday: Apple and Palantir after the bell
Apple goes into tonight’s results as the world’s biggest company by market value at Friday’s close, worth about $5.03 trillion against Nvidia’s $4.93 trillion. Apple was up about 27% year to date, against roughly 11% for the S&P 500, making it the only Magnificent Seven stock to outperform the index in 2026.
iPhone 18 sales are the key number, but guidance, margins and services revenue will shape the reaction just as much. That matters because a stock that has outrun the index this far has less room for a disappointing quarter.
Palantir reports after the close too. Management guided third-quarter revenue to between $2.160 billion and $2.164 billion, and traders will watch US commercial revenue most closely. That part of the business offers the clearest indication of how quickly companies are adopting Palantir’s software, including its AI platforms, at scale. It also keeps the company at the center of the AI debate behind last month’s selloff.
Tuesday: the RBA and the US midterms
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday. The cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes this year. Following the September inflation data released on October 28, all four of Australia’s big banks forecast a 25 basis point rise to 4.85% (Savings.com.au).
The data behind that shift: annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September, and annual trimmed mean inflation was 3.6%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. On a quarterly basis, the trimmed mean rose 1.0% in the September quarter, above the 0.8% the RBA had forecast in August.
A hike would take the cash rate to its highest since 2008. November is also a forecast meeting, so a new Statement on Monetary Policy comes with the decision. For AUD traders, guidance on whether 4.85% is the peak may matter more than the hike itself, since a fully expected hike can still disappoint if the RBA signals it’s done.
Later on Tuesday, US voters go to the polls. Control of the House and Senate will set the terms for tax, spending and trade legislation over the next two years, which is why currency and bond markets watch the counts closely. For traders in Europe and Asia, those results will come through overnight.
Thursday: the Bank of England
The Bank of England announces at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, along with a new Monetary Policy Report. Bank Rate is 3.75%, and the MPC has held it at every meeting this year. In September, the vote was 6-3, and all three dissenters wanted a hike to 4%.
That vote split means Thursday is a true double-edged risk for the pound. Higher interest rates may help the currency by raising rate expectations. Even a ‘hold’ stance, along with more hawkish votes and guidance, may strengthen the pound. On the other hand, a dovish ‘hold’ with fewer votes for an interest rate rise can hurt the currency. The next decision is on December 17.
Oil hangs over everything
WTI crude settled at $104.12 a barrel on Friday, up 2.1% on the day and 15.2% for October, and Brent’s expiring December contract settled at $117.64. Reuters reported both were their highest settlements since the end of April, after a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait remains open, but shipping activity is a trickle compared to the normal flows. According to UK Maritime Trade Operations, there were 122 departures and 155 arrivals during the week to October 28, around 70% below pre-war volumes. OPEC+ decided not to change its December production plans at Sunday’s meeting.
Energy prices are part of the reason rate setters are leaning hawkish. Higher fuel costs drove Australia’s September inflation jump. Any headline out of the Gulf this week can move crude, and that could complicate the inflation outlook for every central bank on this week’s calendar.
Friday: the jobs report
The October payrolls report is due at 13:30 GMT on Friday. September’s figure was weak: just 29,000 jobs added, well short of forecasts, with unemployment at 4.2%.
This one carries extra weight because of where the Fed sits. On October 28, it held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters (Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack) wanted a quarter-point hike. The CME FedWatch tool put the chance of a December hike at about 85% on the morning of October 29.
That’s the backdrop for the ‘is the Fed put back?’ question circulating on Wall Street. The Fed put is the idea that the central bank may ease monetary policy when a sharp market decline threatens broader economic or financial stability. Another soft payrolls print could make a December hike harder to justify, and that would ripple straight through the dollar and Treasury yields, with gold likely to feel it too.
The week at a glance
- Monday: Apple and Palantir earnings after the US market close.
- Tuesday: RBA rate decision (03:30 GMT); US midterm elections.
- Thursday: Bank of England rate decision and Monetary Policy Report (12:00 GMT).
- Friday: US October jobs report (13:30 GMT).
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