2013-02-25 06:36 GMT
Italy at the crossroads ahead of weekend elections
On 24 and 25 February Italy heads to the polls to vote in the general election, called two months before of the end of the statutory five-year term. The outcome is rather uncertain as many voters remain undecided as to who to choose. Before the opinion polls blackout on 8 February, surveys showed that the center-left party had the most support.
The frontrunners in the election are the head of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi Bersani and center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party's leader Silvio Berlusconi. Third in the opinion polls comes the comedian turned populist politician Beppe Grillo an his 5-Star movement (5SM). The current Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti leading the Civic Choice coalition party also takes part in the elections, but is not expected to claim victory, but rather be a “kingmaker”. The outcome of the election is crucial as the new government will have to make head against the fiscal crisis consuming the country and implement reforms in order to prop up the ailing economy. A failure to do so would have dire implications for Italy and consequently the entire Eurozone as providing a bailout for such a large economy might prove to be impossible. As chief economist at Maverick Intelligence Megan Green suggests in an article for Bloomberg: “The next government in Rome may be stable or reformist by Italian standards, but it will not be both.”-FXstreet.com
2013-02-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan)
2013-02-25 13:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan)
2013-02-25 17:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2013-02-25 21:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
2013-02-25 05:46 GMT | GBP/USD sinks beneath 1.5100
2013-02-25 05:22 GMT | Euro traders shift gaze to Rome
2013-02-25 05:02 GMT | USD/JPY recovers again above 94.00
2013-02-25 04:23 GMT | NZD/USD expected at 0.87 by year end – NAB
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3220 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3244 (R2) and 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the 1.3179 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.3156 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.3130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3220, 1.3244, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3179, 1.3156, 1.3130
HIGH: 1.51368 | LOW: 1.50734 | BID: 1.51297 | ASK: 1.51309 | CHANGE: -0.25% | TIME: 08:02:50
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is pointing to a negative market sentiment by losing -0.25% today. Though clearance of our resistance at 1.5167 (R1) might trigger recovery action towards to our initial targets at 1.5214 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen below the local low at 1.5075 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 1.5030 (S2) and 1.4984 (S3) marks.
Resistance Levels: 1.5167, 1.5214, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5075, 1.5030, 1.4984
Upwards scenario: Market maintains a positive medium-term tone and currently is limited to our next resistive barrier at 94.36 (R1). If it manages to break it we would suggest next intraday targets at 94.50 (R2) and 94.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 93.96 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 93.80 (S2) and 93.65 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.36, 94.50, 94.65
Support Levels: 93.96, 93.80, 93.65
Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.