According to the Ifo Institute (Munich), KOF (Zurich) and Istat (Rome), robust economic growth of 0.6% can be expected in the first and second quarters of 2018 with marginal slowdown of growth to 0.5% in the third quarter. The key drivers of growth are investments, which will benefit from low interest rates, and rising capacity […]
Forex today was mainly driven by risk flows, with a major turnaround in the risk condition experienced amid ebbing fears over the US-China trade war. The WSJ reported that the US and China are quietly seeking trade solutions after last week’s war of words. Subsequently, the demand for the safe-havens such as the Yen, gold
In its latest monetary policy meeting, held yesterday, the BoE MPC voted 7-2 in favour of leaving benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. Meanwhile, it was a unanimous vote to keep asset purchase facility at £435 billion and corporate bond target at £10 billion. All in all, the statement from the Bank of England’s latest
Alongside positive steps made in Brexit talks this week, the UK wage data may give BoE a green light on rate hike to happen in May. At 2.6%, growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses suggests that wages are gathering momentum. Admittedly, the current year-on-year rate of growth says almost as much about the weakness
In the G20 meeting that concluded yesterday, analysts at Deutsche Bank have noticed that most global finance chiefs warned against protectionism with BOJ Governor Kuroda noting “the G20 will continue to emphasize the importance of free trade” while France’s Finance Minister Le Maire reiterated that there will only be losers in a trade war and
The markets were feeling a little indecisive last week given the unpredictable spate of headlines which seemed to come from the White House on an almost daily basis then there’s good news as we have the welcome distraction of a Fed meeting this week. Financial markets are pricing in a greater than 90% probability that
According to the German centre0-right, liberal-conservative newspaper, Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung, the European Commission is preparing member states for a trade war with the US over Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. It has obtained an internal memo from the European Commission that tells member states not to be ‘too optimistic” about obtaining steel and aluminum tariffs
The negative view persists and a probable lack of overtly hawkish Fed signals in the US. FOMC is to hike +25bp next week and retain an optimistic outlook but risks of a strong hawkish signal have eased following benign Feb earnings and CPI, weaker Q1 tracking estimates (Atlanta Fed now cast trimmed to 1.9% from
According to the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech yesterday, during the ECB conference, the monetary policy will remain patient and prudent with sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards target is the condition for net asset purchases to end. He has also mentioned that there is still a need to see further evidence that
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in January,” the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food
