Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 14 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

2013-01-14 06:11 GMT

Focus on Bernanke speech; revenge of the doves?

With the European debt crisis temporarily buried underground, and the US debt ceiling still too many weeks far down the road to become a pressing issue, most of the weekend headlines were stolen by Japan and its quest to set a highly ambitious 2% inflation. However, on the horizon the sound of helicopter helices loom, as Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke prepares to give a speech at the University of Michigan at 21GMT, NY close time, following the latest controversial FOMC minutes.

NAB notes: “This is his first public address since the December FOMC minutes that sparked so much chatter and market volatility surrounding the possibility that the Fed could mark time on the current phase of its QE programme by year end.” NAB expects Bernanke’s comments “to be directed at disabusing his audience that stropping balance sheet expansion as a prelude to commencing to take back policy stimulus are events that could be separated by years not months” the bank says. “If so, expect the USD to be subject to some fresh downward pressure…” NAB concludes.-FXstreet.com

Forex Economic Calendar

2013-01-14 07:00 GMT | Germany. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
2013-01-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-14 15:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
2013-01-14 21:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke Speech

Forex News

2013-01-14 04:49 GMT | USD/JPY, watch the 20EMA for clues
2013-01-14 04:43 GMT | GBP/JPY climbing toward 145.00
2013-01-14 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD reverses course, back to fresh session highs
2013-01-14 03:27 GMT | EUR/USD prints fresh 10-month high at 1.3404

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34036 | LOW: 1.33497 | BID: 1.33882 | ASK: 1.33890 | CHANGE: 0.35% | TIME: 08:02:49

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURJPY gained momentum on the upside and formed local high at 1.3404 (R1). In a thin market and economic calendar like today we are not expecting significant volatility increase, though a break here would suggest next targets at 1.3434 (R2) and 1.3463 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possibility of consolidation formation is high today. Decline below the support level at 1.3364 (S1) might initiate protective orders execution and drive market price towards to next support levels at 1.3336 (S2) and 1.3307 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3404, 1.3434, 1.3463
Support Levels: 1.3364, 1.3336, 1.3307

GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.61544 | LOW: 1.61168 | BID: 1.61397 | ASK: 1.61409 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08:02:50

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: The GBPUSD is now losing upside momentum after the former strength. Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.6158 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6180 (R2) and 1.6200 (R3) in potential Downwards scenario: If instrument gains momentum on the downside, we expect to see penetration below the next support at 1.6127 (S1). In such scenario we suggest next targets at 1.6106 (S2) and 1.6083 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6158, 1.6180, 1.6200
Support Levels: 1.6127, 1.6106, 1.6083

USDJPY

HIGH: 89.667 | LOW: 89.249 | BID: 89.613 | ASK: 89.618 | CHANGE: 0.49% | TIME: 08:02:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 89.70 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 89.93 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect final target at 90.17 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our 20 Simple Moving Average at 89.34 (S1) acts as next support level. Below here opens the way for a return to 89.09 (S2) price level. Potential is seen to reach final target for today at 88.85 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 89.70, 89.93, 90.17
Support Levels: 89.34, 89.09, 88.85

Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.