Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 15 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
2013-01-15 06:23 GMT
Bernanke provides no signs of QE expiration; raising debt ceiling crucial
Ben Bernanke is giving a speech at the University of Michigan, with the talk centered on two big issues. One is the long run sustainability of the US debt, while the other is the fragile recovery. Fed’s Bernanke said Federal budget must be brought under control, warning that plans to adjust the budget should be carefully well thought in order to avoid pushing the economy into recession He said that the economy “is not out of the woods”, and stressed the improved optimism after the fiscal cliff deal, which in Bernanke’s words, “eliminated a good bit of the restrictive components.”
Fed’s Bernanke noted ‘some modest improvement’ in jobs market, although he wants to see rosier numbers in the economy and the labour market. With regards to the number of tools available to stimulate the economy, Bernanke said “the Fed is not out of ammunition”, adding that judging by the reaction of markets since the establishments of the first QE program, “overall QE has succeeded in reducing long-term rates; we have found (QE) to be an effective tool.” Bernanke said is early to determine the effect of asset purchases, suggesting the extension of QE in the near term seems a done deal, while waiting further proves, especially in the labour market, to determine length of QE extension. While growth has been moderate, the housing sector, has shown positives signs, Bernanke said. “For the first time since 06/07 we have seen sustained increase in home prices, which should help us throughout the year…”-FXstreet.com
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-15 07:00 GMT | Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-15 08:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)
2013-01-15 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-15 13:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
Forex News
2013-01-15 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates below 1.61 ahead of UK data
2013-01-15 04:39 GMT | EUR/AUD capped below 1.2700
2013-01-15 04:05 GMT | EUR/JPY strong rejection from 120s breaks below 119
2013-01-15 03:14 GMT | USD/JPY longs run to the exits; 88.62 new weekly low
| AUDUSD | NZDUSD | USDCHF | USDCAD | GBPJPY | EURCHF | GOLD | SILVER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.05493/504 | 0.84061/076 | 0.92464/481 | 0.98414/428 | 143.036/054 | 1.23471/496 | 1672.44/.72 | 31.11/.14 |
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EURUSD
HIGH: 1.33935 | LOW: 1.33482 | BID: 1.33557 | ASK: 1.33566 | CHANGE: -0.2% | TIME: 07:56:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment looks balanced and false beak outs are possible. Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.3404 (R1) might establish new leg of uptrend formation and enable higher targets at 1.3434 (R2) and 1.346 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market structure remains consolidative and easing below the support level at 1.3336 (S1) is likely scenario for today. Our targets located at 1.3307 (S2) and 1.3280 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 1.3404, 1.3434, 1.3463
Support Levels: 1.3336, 1.3307, 1.3280
GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.60938 | LOW: 1.60674 | BID: 1.60713 | ASK: 1.60723 | CHANGE: -0.02% | TIME: 07:56:32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the range mode condition on the medium-term perspective. Risks of market strengthening are seen above the next resistance level at 1.6097 (R1). Our suggested targets locates at 1.6117 (R2) and 1.6138 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if it manages to surpass support level at 1.6064 (S1). Next support levels are seen at 1.6045 (S2) and 1.6026 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6097, 1.6117, 1.6138
Support Levels: 1.6064, 1.6045, 1.6026
USDJPY
HIGH: 89.629 | LOW: 88.618 | BID: 88.969 | ASK: 88.975 | CHANGE: -0.56% | TIME: 07:56:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation today, though risk of positive tone establishment is seen above the next resistance level at 89.30 (R1). Any penetration above this level would put in focus higher targets at 89.54 (R2) and 89.79 (R3). Downwards scenario: We suspect that the market might extend short term losses below the fresh low formed today. Easing below our support at 88.60 (S1) would suggest next targets at 88.36 (S3) and 88.10 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 89.30, 89.54, 89.79
Support Levels: 88.60, 88.36, 88.10
Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.
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