November 2013

How China's Mineral Export Ban Could Derail Europe's Green Ambitions

Trend analysis for the week beginning November 10th

We begin our analysis with a detailed analysis of the upcoming fundamental policy and high impact news events that will affect the coming week’s trading sessions. Thereafter we’ll move onto technical analysis using the most commonly favoured trend/swing indicators.   Monday sees several bank holidays that will affect the volume of trading activity during the

Trend analysis for the week beginning November 10th Read More »

Investors’ attention switches to the USA NFP print, whilst France’s credit rating is lowered by Standard & Poor’s

The USA non farm payroll (NFP) print will take centre stage in terms of high impact news events this afternoon. The expectation is for a print of circa 121K for the month of October. Various talking heads in the mainstream financial press will look to place the ‘blame’ for the poor print (if it does

Investors’ attention switches to the USA NFP print, whilst France’s credit rating is lowered by Standard & Poor’s Read More »

ECB rate cut takes the market by surprise, Twitter IPO flies, USA unemployment falls, GDP rises, yet the main USA markets fall…

It’s not often we enjoy (or endure) trading sessions so high on drama from all angles, but Thursday was one such day. And for the most part the news was all positive. We had falling unemployment claims in the USA (falling by circa 9K to 336K) whilst USA GDP rose further than expected, up by

ECB rate cut takes the market by surprise, Twitter IPO flies, USA unemployment falls, GDP rises, yet the main USA markets fall… Read More »

Interest rate settings in Europe, GDP and unemployment numbers from the USA set today’s agenda

The major high impact news events and policy decisions in today’s trading sessions concern the interest rate setting in the UK and by the ECB for Europe. Both rates expected to remain static at 0.5%. The notes and speeches accompanying each rate setting decision will be more eagerly awaited than the decisions, given the potential

Interest rate settings in Europe, GDP and unemployment numbers from the USA set today’s agenda Read More »

Is price random? The random walk hypothesis, the Philadelphia 76ers basketball team and our debt to Eugene Fama…

If we were to indulge in a sweeping generalization and select a group of people as being totally unsuited to retail trading, then those with a scientific background, or quantitative mathematics background, would probably come closest. These groups could be best described as refusing to accept that price is random. Many become fixated on finding

Is price random? The random walk hypothesis, the Philadelphia 76ers basketball team and our debt to Eugene Fama… Read More »

The DJIA closes at record high on Wednesday due to speculation over Fed monetary easing policy as Global output reaches its fastest pace since February 2011.

The ECB will leave its main refinancing rate at a record low of 0.5 percent on Thursday, according to 67 of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Bank of America, Royal Bank of Scotland Group and UBS predict that the ECB will reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.25%.

The DJIA closes at record high on Wednesday due to speculation over Fed monetary easing policy as Global output reaches its fastest pace since February 2011. Read More »

As Greeks strike Markit PMIs reveal that Spanish and Italian business activities are still weak, whilst Eurozone expands for fourth month running in October…

The eurozone private sector maintained its fragile and modest economic recovery at the start of the final quarter of 2013. October PMI data from Markit signalled that business activity in the currency union expanded for the fourth successive month. Although a slight dip in the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index to 51.9 in

As Greeks strike Markit PMIs reveal that Spanish and Italian business activities are still weak, whilst Eurozone expands for fourth month running in October… Read More »