Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 21 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

2013-01-21 06:39 GMT

Merkel’s CDU loses Lower Saxony election; setback to her national campaign

Angela Merkel’s ruling centre-right coalition government suffered yet another defeat on this Sunday’s local elections, in what the Financial Times defines as a controversial election in the state of Lower Saxony, according to final forecasts of German television. After early speculation that the result would be a narrow win for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Social Democratic party (SDP) and its varies Green party ties managed to gather enough votes to reach a 1 seat majority.

Preliminary final results for Lower Saxony: CDU 36%, SPD 32,6%, FDP 9,9%, Grüne 13,7%, Linke 3,1%. SPD & Grüne coalition gets them a 1 seat majority. Other coalitions possible, yet bottom line is that CDU loses. FT: “A victory for the SPD and Greens could give a boost to their national campaign to replace Ms Merkel’s government in September. But the chancellor’s personal popularity has given the CDU a 17-point lead over the SPD in recent opinion polls.”-FXstreet.com

Forex Economic Calendar

N/A | E.M.U. Eurogrup meeting
2013-01-21 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-21 08:15 GMT | Switzerland. Industrial Production (YoY) (Q3)
2013-01-21 13:30 GMT | Canada. Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov)

Forex News

2013-01-21 06:38 GMT | EUR/USD steady in Asia
2013-01-21 05:54 GMT | EUR/GBP off 5-month highs; stalls below 0.8400
2013-01-21 05:24 GMT | FED to continue QE purchases thru 2014 – RBS
2013-01-21 04:02 GMT | GBP/AUD off fresh 5-month lows at 1.5060

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33301 | LOW: 1.3302 | BID: 1.33226 | ASK: 1.33235 | CHANGE: 0.07% | TIME: 08:30:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD established next resistance at 1.3334 (R1), above which is seen possibility of uptrend formation in near –term perspective. Our bullish targets appears at 1.3356 (R2) and 1.3378 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.3302 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.3282 (S2) and 1.3262 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3334, 1.3356, 1.3378
Support Levels: 1.3302, 1.3282, 1.3262

GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.58733 | LOW: 1.58446 | BID: 1.58718 | ASK: 1.58727 | CHANGE: -0.01% |TIME: 08:30:50

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Instrument lost downside momentum an currently moves in correction mode. Market appreciation is possible above the resistance at 1.5884 (R1). Any upside corrections above this point will then be targeting next resistances at 1.5908 (R2) and 1.5931 (R3). Downwards scenario: Short-term bears expected to be in play below the next support level at 1.5846 (S1). Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to next targets at 1.5825 (S2) and 1.5805 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5884, 1.5908, 1.5931
Support Levels: 1.5846, 1.5525, 1.5805

USDJPY

HIGH: 90.245 | LOW: 89.425 | BID: 89.591 | ASK: 89.596 | CHANGE: -0.53% | TIME: 08:30:55

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Currently price deviates from its high after the clear uptrend formation on the hourly chart. Buyers have their next challenge at 89.76 (R1). Break through here would suggest next initial targets at 89.98 (R2) and 90.18 (R3).Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 89.42 (S1), that buyers will try to defend. Any extension lower is being able to drive market price towards to our intraday targets at 89.24 (S2) and 89.05 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 89.76, 89.98, 90.18
Support Levels: 89.42, 89.24, 89.05

Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.