Forex Technical & Market Analysis: April 30 2013

Apr 30 • Market Analysis • 2125 Views • Comments Off on Forex Technical & Market Analysis: April 30 2013

2013-04-30 09:00 GMT

The Fed will most likely keep its policy unchanged

On Monday, global core bonds easily recouped an early session dip triggered by the formation of an Italian government, which received the confidence of parliament yesterday. Furthermore, equities kept a positive tone and closed with moderate gains. However, core bonds ignored equities and traded sideways in a tight range, once initial losses were recouped. By the end of trading, German yields were less than 1 bp from Friday’s close. US yields were virtually unchanged too, with the exception of the 30-yr (+ 1.7 bps).

In other news, inflation figures of Germany, Belgium and Spain showed a sharp slowing, while the EU confidence data were a bit weaker than expected. They were bond supportive, but we didn’t see a reaction upon publication. US eco data (see news section) were largely ignored. Bond auctions in Italy and Belgium went well (see below). –


2013-04-30 12:30 GMT

CAD.Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Feb)

2013-04-30 13:45 GMT

USA.Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Apr)

2013-04-30 14:00 GMT

USA.Consumer Confidence (Apr)

2013-04-30 22:30 GMT

AUS.AiG Performance of Mfg Index (Apr)


2013-04-30 07:09 GMT

EUR/USD dips to 1.3075/80 on Spanish GDP

2013-04-30 07:01 GMT

USD/CHF erases losses after German retail sales

2013-04-30 06:45 GMT

USD/JPY at lows of 97.70 after jump to 98.13 high

2013-04-30 06:31 GMT

GBP/USD below 1.5500 ahead of UK data

Forex Technical Analysis  EURUSD

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3076 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would suggest next targets at 1.3094 (R2) and 1.3111 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 1.3037 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 1.3026 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 1.3014 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3076, 1.3094, 1.3111

Support Levels: 1.3037, 1.3026, 1.3014

Forex Technical Analysis  GBPUSDUpwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5525 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5546 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5571 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to 1.5481 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5454 (S2) and 1.5426 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5525, 1.5546, 1.5571

Support Levels: 1.5481, 1.5454, 1.5426

Forex Technical Analysis  USDJPY

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 92.02 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 98.16 (R2) and 98.30 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 97.59 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 97.42 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 97.27 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.02, 98.16, 98.30

Support Levels: 97.59, 97.42, 97.27



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