MORNING ROLL CALL

Apr 3 • Morning Roll Call • 1550 Views • Comments Off on MORNING ROLL CALL

PMIs, FOMC minutes, political events and non-farm payroll data to dominate the week’s economic calendar landscapebetween-the-lines1

Sunday evening will witness the publication of the various Japanese Tankan surveys, these monthly metrics can have a significant effect on both Japan’s equity indices and the value of yen. Last week Japan published data revealing that, despite the trillions of yen pumped into the economy and interest rates languishing at close to zero for an historically low period, consumer spending is down -3.8% YoY and CPI is down to -0.4% year on year. Industrial production has risen, as has vehicle production; by 11.4% and 4.8% annually respectively.

Monday sees the publication of several Eurozone and UK PMIs, in Europe the most prominent are the manufacturing PMI, expected to remain unchanged at 56.2, whilst the UK’s manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55 in March, from 54.6 in February. Any fall in the UK’s reading may indicate Brexit jitters. The Eurozone’s annual producer prices are expected to have risen, from 3.5% to 4.3% in February. The USA’s Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to register a reading of 53.5, a 0.1 improvement, the more relevant reading for the USA is the ISM, the forecast is for a fall to 57.1, from 57.7 in March. Construction spending in the USA is expected to have risen by 1% in Feb, from a fall of -1% in Jan. The Fed’s Harker and Lacker both hold court at separate conferences.

Tuesday morning Aussie traders should remain vigilant as the RBA reveals its interest rate decision, currently at 1.5%, there is no expectation for any change. The decision will be released after the Australian trade balance figure is published, predictions are for a reading of A$1700m for the month of Feb, an improvement on the A$1302 in January. The UK’s Markit construction reading is published, the prediction is for no change, from the level of 52.5 in Feb. The Eurozone’s retail sales are predicted to have fallen to 1% YoY in Feb, from 1.2% in Jan. Later in the afternoon president Draghi will speak in Frankfurt, Europe’s financial capital, which could expand dramatically during and after the UK’s Brexit, a subject he’s sure to cover during his narrative. The USA trade balance is expected to have improved significantly in February, to -$44.7b from -$48.5. Factory orders are predicted to have fallen to 0.9% in Feb from 1.2%, whilst durable goods orders are predicted to remain unchanged at 1.7%.

Wednesday’s significant calendar events begins with Japan’s services and composite PMIs, expected to remain unchanged, from the previous readings of 51.3 and 52.2 respectively. Thereafter focus turns to a raft of Eurozone PMIs, the forecast is for Germany’s composite remaining unchanged at 57 and Europe’s composite to remain at 56.7. The service sector is the UK’s most dominant, the UK’s services PMI is anticipated to come in at 53.5 for March, from 53.2 previously in Feb. Composite PMI for the UK is forecast unchanged at 53.8. In the USA mortgage applications are expected to have improved, from the -0.8% drop registered in the previous week. ADP private jobs numbers are expected to have risen by 189k from February’s reading of 298k, a significant reduction in job creation, which could ominously foretell a weak non-farm payroll reading for Friday. The ISM non manufacturing composite is expected to come in at 57 for March, from 57.6. Later in the evening, the Fed publishes its minutes regarding the reasons supporting the March interest rate rise.

Thursday’s significant medium to high impact data begins with Germany’s yearly factory orders, expected to come in at 3.6%, a significant improvement from the -0.8% recorded for January. Mario Draghi will once again speak in Frankfurt. Thereafter there are a raft of Eurozone PMIs published; Germany’s construction PMI and the Eurozone, French and Italian retail PMI. Attention then turns to USA data; the Challenger job cuts, USA initial weekly unemployment claims and overall rolling claims numbers.

Friday witnesses Swiss unemployment data published; expectation of no change on a seasonally adjusted basis at 3.3%. Annual German industrial production is expected to have risen by 0.6% for Feb, up from zero in Jan. whilst Germany’s trade balance for the month of Feb is expected to have improved to €17.4b, from €14.8b in January. Exports for Feb in Germany are forecast to have contracted by -0.4% in Feb, from a 2.7% rise in Jan. Industrial production in the UK is expected to have risen to 3.7% annually for Feb, whilst manufacturing production is predicted to have risen by 3.9%, from Jan’s reading of 2.7%. Various figures regarding the UK’s trade balance will be published, whilst later on in the afternoon BoE governor Mark Carney will hold a conference in London. Canada will publish its unemployment data, forecast for a minor change, up 0.1% to 6.7%. Non farm payrolls in the USA are expected to have risen by 177k, versus 235k previously. Wholesale inventories in the USA are expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%, whilst consumer credit is expected to have risen by $12.5b in Feb, from an $8.754b rise in Jan.
Economic Calendar (all times are BST)

Monday, 3 April
All day – China bank holiday
00:50 – Japan Tankan manufacturing index, Tankan non-manufacturing index
02:30 – Australia retail sales, building approvals
02:45 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI
06:00 – Bank of Japan core CPI
08:15 – Spanish manufacturing PMI
08:50 – French final manufacturing PMI
08:55 – German final manufacturing PMI
09:00 – Eurozone final manufacturing PMI
09:30 – UK manufacturing PMI
15:00 – US ISM manufacturing PMI
15:30 – Bank of Canada business outlook survey
23:00 – New Zealand NZIER business confidence

Tuesday, 4 April
All day – China bank holiday
02:30 – Australia trade balance
05:30 – RBA cash rate and rate statement
08:00 – Spanish unemployment change
09:30 – UK construction PMI
10:00 – Eurozone retail sales, revised GDP
13:30 – Canada trade balance, US trade balance
15:00 – US factory orders

Wednesday, 5 April
00:01 – UK BRC shop price index
08:50 – French services PMI
08:55 – German services PMI
09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI
09:30 – UK services PMI
13:15 – US ADP non-farm employment change
15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI
15:30 – US crude oil inventories
19:00 – FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday, 6 April
02:45 – China Caixin services PMI
07:00 – German factory orders
08:15 – Swiss CPI inflation
12:30 – ECB monetary policy meeting accounts
13:30 – Canada building permits
13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims

Friday, 7 April
07:00 – German industrial production, trade balance
07:45 – French industrial production, trade balance, government budget balance
08:30 – UK Halifax house price index
09:30 – UK manufacturing production, industrial output, construction output, goods trade balance
13:00 – US NIESR GDP estimate
13:30 – Canada unemployment rate
13:30 – US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings

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