In terms of economic news it was an extremely slow calendar news day on Monday, with only the Italian industrial production, falling by -2.3% in the month of February, thereby missing expectations of a -0.8% fall, raising investors’ eyebrows. However, it was political issues in the U.K. which dominated the investment landscape.
The ‘lower’ House of Commons eventually voted against the House of Lords previous block, in order to push through the Tories’ Brexit agenda. The bill was then sent back to the Lords, where it then passed with little resistance late on Monday evening. But the overall lengthy process has experienced an interruption, due to the first minister of Scotland insisting on Monday that she’ll now attempt to gather support for a second Scottish independence referendum, in either 2018, or 2019. The words: Brexit, Article 50 and second Scottish referendum will be repeated ad nauseam over the coming years.
The overall effect on sterling’s value due to the ongoing Brexit issues was minimal; GBP/USD reducing from a circa 0.5% gain early in the European session, to a 0.3% gain towards the end of the day. Sterling rose by 0.5% percent versus the euro, EUR/GDP ending the day close to 87.19 pence per euro, improving from the eight week low of 87.86 pence, printed earlier in the European trading session.
In the USA the markets appeared to be subdued, both due to the lack of high impact news events on the daily calendar and the looming FOMC meeting on Wednesday, during which analysts and the economists polled are close on unanimous that the Fed will announce that they’ve raised the interest rate by 0.25%.
The DJIA closed down 0.10% on the day, SPX up 0.04%, NASDAQ up 0.24%. In Europe the STOXX 50 closed down 0.02%, DAX up 0.22%, CAC up 0.13% and the UK’s FTSE closed up 0.33%.
The Dollar Spot Index fell by less than 0.1%, following its 0.6% fall on Friday. EUR/USD traded little changed at $1.0658, after initially (in the early morning session), setting a one-month high at $1.0714. USD/JPY ended the day’s trading sessions close to flat, at 114.93.
WTI crude fell by circa 0.2% in New York, to end the day close to $48.20 per barrel, WTI fell by circa 9% last week, registering the biggest weekly loss since November, as U.S. miners continued to boost activity, whilst subdued USA and global industrial and manufacturing activity may also be offsetting OPEC’s continual efforts to reduce the global glut.
Gold moved higher during the day to $1,202 an ounce, recovering from experiencing its largest weekly loss last week since November. Silver closed the day out at circa $16.96 per ounce, a significant slip from its recent high of just over $18 per ounce.
Economic calendar events for March 14th, all times quoted are London (GMT) times.
07:00, currency impacted EUR. German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB). Germany’s CPI inflation is predicted to remain unchanged at 2.2%. Any significant rise above this estimate could suggest an interest rate rise by the ECB is more likely.
10:00, currency impacted EUR. Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN). Analysts are expecting to see a rebound into positive territory, to a reading of 1.4%, from the surprise -1.6% reading, which was registered last month.
10:00, currency impacted EUR. Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN). Due to the shrinkage registered in the previous month the annual data reading is anticipated to fall to 0.9%, from the previous reading of 2.0%.
10:00, currency impacted EUR. German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR). This is a critical sentiment indicator and report, both for Germany and the wider Euro-Zone region. The estimate is for an improved reading of 13 to be recorded, from the previous reading of 10.4.