May 8 • Morning Roll Call • 2117 Views • 1 Comment on MORNING ROLL CALL

Euro rises in early trade as Macron elected French president, UK BoE reveals its interest rate decision on Thursday, European news set to dominate the economic calendar this coming weekbetween-the-lines1

Monday begins the economic calendar week when a raft of Chinese economic data is published on Monday morning in the Asian trading session, with analysts looking for evidence supporting theories that the Chinese economy is stalling. The headline high impact releases will be: the YoY direct foreign investment numbers, scheduled to come in unchanged at circa 6.9% annual growth, whilst exports are forecast to fall to 16.8% in April, from a 22.2% annual rise in March. The April trade balance is predicted to rise to $35.2b, from $23.9b.

In Australia building approval metrics will be monitored carefully, they’re forecast to have fallen by -10% year on year and by -4% during the month of April. The business confidence metric is published for Australia, whilst consumer confidence numbers are released by the relevant Japanese authorities.

In Europe Germany’s factory orders are estimated to have fallen to 0.7% growth in March and 2.1% annually, down from 4.6% YoY, a potentially worrying development, due to Germany’s position as the engine of economic manufacturing growth for Europe. Sentix investor confidence in Europe is predicted to rise to 25.2, from 23.9.

Canada will publish housing start numbers; predicted to come in at 220k, from the previous annual reading of 253k. From the USA the labour market conditions index will be published, whilst two Fed officials will give speeches.

Tuesday witnesses Japanese data published; both labour cash earnings and real cash earnings. Labour cash is predicted to remain unchanged at 0.4% YoY. Australian retail sales are forecast to have grown by 0.4%, in Q1 2017.

In Europe Swiss unemployment is predicted to remain unchanged at 3.3%, German industrial production is forecast to register a 2.6% annual rise in March, whilst the German trade balance is predicted to come in at €21.5b for March, from €19.9b in Feb. German exports are predicted to have fallen to 0.2% growth in March, from 0.8% in Feb.

Canada’s building permits are forecast to have improved from the -2.5% fall registered in Feb. In the USA wholesale inventories are predicted to have remained down by -0.1%, repeating February’s print. Late evening Japan’s BOJ summary of the opinions collated during the meeting of April 26-27th, will be published.

Wednesday begins the economic releases with finance and money supply data from China and the volume of new loans created; new loans are predicted to have shrunk to CNY800b, from CNY1020b. China’s CPI is forecast to come in at 1.1% YoY. with PPI forecast to register a 6.7% increase. Japan’s leading index is expected to rise to 105.5, from 104.8.

European news mainly concerns a Brexit meeting for the remaining 27 members (minus the UK), taking place in Brussels, whilst later in the morning ECB president Draghi gives a speech in the Dutch Parliament.

USA weekly mortgage applications are expected to languish in the -0.1% region, import prices for April are forecast to reveal a 0.2% rise, with export prices remaining unchanged, at 0.2% in April. Crude oil inventory data will be carefully monitored, due to the recent collapse in the price of crude oil. The monthly budget statement for March from the USA will be released; expected to come in above the -$176.2 reported in March.

Later in the evening the New Zealand central bank will reveal their interest rate decision; forecast to remain unchanged at 1.75%, shortly after the decision governor Wheeler will hold a press conference to discuss the announcement. Later in the Asian session there’s a raft of Japanese data released, the trade balance being the highlight; scheduled to come in at 798Yen for March, a fall from the 1076Yen printed in Feb.

Thursday witnesses the publication of German wholesale prices, expected to show little growth from the 0.00% registered in March. Swiss consumer price inflation is predicted to fall, from 0.6% to 0.5% annually. The ECB will publish its economic bulletin, whilst the ECB’s supervisory board hold a meeting in Helsinki and G7 ministers meet in Bari.

A busy day for the UK in terms of economic calendar news, begins with industrial production, which is forecast to fall to 1.9% YoY. Manufacturing production is estimated to have fallen to 3% YoY. Construction output is predicted to have risen to 2.9% YoY. The UK’s total trade balance is predicted to come in at -£3000 for March, versus -£3663 in February. Thereafter, the UK’s BoE will reveal its interest rate decisions; with the base rate forecast to remain at 0.25% and the asset purchase scheme at £435b, the central bank will also publish its inflation report. The NIESR will publish its estimate for the UK’s GDP, expected to be 0.4%.

Canada’s new house prices are predicted to reveal a similar level of growth to the 0.4% revealed in Feb, from the USA a raft of PPI data metrics is published, as are the weekly jobless claims, forecast to come in at 245k, up from 238k.

Friday sees Germany’s GDP published, forecast to rise to 2.8% annually in the first Q of 2017, from the 1.2% previously reported. YoY CPI is predicted to have remained unchanged at 2%. Eurozone industrial production is forecast to come in at 2.3% in March, up from the 1.2% registered in Feb.

The USA publishes CPI data, forecast in at 2.3% annually, a fall from 2.4% previously. Average yearly wage earnings remained flat in March, there is little expectation for a dramatic rise. Retail sales are predicted to have risen by 0.6% in April, from a -0.2% fall in March. The university of Michigan confidence reading for May is forecast to come in unchanged at 97. Business inventories for March are expected to fall to 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.3%.

Sunday, 7 May
All day – French presidential election

Monday, 8 May
All day – French bank holiday (stock market open)
Tentative – China trade balance
02:30 – Australia building approvals, NAB business confidence
07:00 – German factory orders
08:30 – UK Halifax house price index

Tuesday, 9 May
00:01 – UK BRC retail sales monitor
02:30 – Australia retail sales
07:00 – German industrial production, trade balance
07:45 – French final CPI, government budget balance
10:30 – Australia annual budget release
13:30 – Canada building permits
15:00 – US JOLTS job openings

Wednesday, 10 May
02:30 – China PPI and CPI inflation
07:45 – French industrial production, trade balance
09:00 – Italian industrial production
13:30 – US import prices
15:30 – US crude oil inventories
22:00 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand official cash rate & statement
23:00 – RBNZ press conference

Thursday, 11 May
08:15 – Swiss CPI inflation
09:30 – UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance
10:00 – EU economic forecasts
12:00 – Bank of England interest rate decision, inflation report, monetary policy summary
13:30 – US PPI inflation, weekly unemployment claims
Tentative – US mortgage delinquencies

Friday, 12 May
07:00 – German preliminary GDP, final CPI
07:45 – French preliminary nonfarm payrolls
10:00 – Eurozone industrial production
13:30 – US CPI inflation, retail sales
15:00 – US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment

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