Forex Technical & Market Analysis: December 16 2012

MARKET OVERVIEW

2012-12-14 07:00 GMT

Leaders debate EMU consolidation after bank supervision deal
In order to achieve the completion of EMU, the 27-countries bloc made further progress on the roadmap to achieve such goals, after the agreement for a Euro bank supervisor by the ECB earlier on the week, which will police north of 200 flagship banks.Today’s European leaders meeting, which again concluded over 2 hours past midnight Brussels time, showed some understandable differences on how to go about the next critical steps, such as a banking resolution, measure to reduce country’s deficit and a budget for the whole bloc. One of the notorious opposed members to see mutualisation of the debts after the ECB bank’s oversight role, was German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who continues to play it safely against passing new liabilities for German taxpayers ahead of next year’s national elections.

As Reuters notes, “a German delegation source said that in the summit room, she opposed a joint resolution fund for banks at this stage and rejected any big “fiscal capacity” to help euro zone states cope with economic shocks or reward them for structural reforms. Instead, she said EU countries should concentrate on consolidating their own budgets, according to notes of the meeting and an account provided by one participant.” Merkel, once out of the official meeting, told reporters that the bank union deal was a ‘very important’ decision taken by the EZ leaders, and that such agreement paves the way for future positive developments of a currency union. On the transaction tax, she suspects a solidarity fund for Euro zone states with limits 10 to 20 billion Euros. – FXstreet.com

Forex Economic Calendar

2012-12-14 10:00 GMT | EU.Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Nov)
2012-12-14 10:00 GMT | EU.Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2012-12-14 13:30 GMT | USA.Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2012-12-14 13:30 GMT | USA.Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Nov)

Forex News

2012-12-14 05:51 GMT | GBP/USD rallies above 1.6120 resistance; scope for 50-pip run?
2012-12-14 04:50 GMT | AUD/JPY hits 9-month highs; eyes resistance at 88.60
2012-12-14 03:29 GMT | USD/JPY just spiked a bit; approaching 84.00
2012-12-14 00:53 GMT | EUR/USD still below 1.31; outlook remains bullish – V.Bednarik

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD

HIGH: 1.31 | LOW: 1.30662 | BID: 1.30890 | ASK: 1.30897 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08:09:37

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Medium term bias is positive for the pair. Risk of market appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3126 (R1). Loss here would suggest next target at 1.3139 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 1.3155 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3126, 1.3139, 1.3155
Support Levels: 1.3081, 1.3069, 1.3056

GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.61287 | LOW: 1.61035 | BID: 1.61238 | ASK: 1.61249 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08:09:38

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Price action looks mainly consolidative on the hourly chart. Our next resistance stays at 1.6152 (R1). Market expansion towards to next targets at 1.6163 (R2) and 1.6176 (R3) looks reasonable if the price manages to overcome it.

Resistance Levels: 1.6152, 1.6163, 1.6176
Support Levels: 1.6101, 1.6083, 1.6067

USDJPY

HIGH: 83.961 | LOW: 83.6 | BID: 83.894 | ASK: 83.897 | CHANGE: 0.3% | TIME: 08:09:39

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
While instrument trades below the resistance level at 83.97 (R1), market would try to form correction. Break above it is required to attack the upside target at 84.10 (R2) and 84.22 (R3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 83.97, 84.10, 84.22
Support Levels: 83.62, 83.51, 83.41

Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.