Forex Market Commentaries - Capital Flight Hurting Greece

All We Are Saying Is Give Greece A Chance

Feb 27 • Market Commentaries • 7920 Views • 3 Comments on All We Are Saying Is Give Greece A Chance

“All We Are Saying Is Give Greece A Chance.” Are Strawberry Fields Forever?

Oh no, not The Beatles. Apologies readers, but as a native of Liverpool it’s often stomach churning to witness them being used to promote movements or ideals. It’s beyond parody how much the iconoclasm of the group is maintained. By the way, anyone wanting a quick Beatles tour of Liverpool I’ve nailed it down to twenty minutes in the city centre, followed off by a drive to Penny Lane and Strawberry fields… job done inside two hours.

But wait a minute, that song wasn’t penned and performed by Lennon and McCartney, it was the Plastic Ono Band so ‘risk off’, the Greeks are welcome to it as a movement anthem..they can even adopt Ringo as their spokesman anytime.

It’s impossible to contemplate how Greece is supposed to dig itself out of the austerical (sic) nightmare it’s being wedged into and as many have predicted the real issues will begin in March and April, particularly when Greece goes to the country to elect a new government in April. Given the levels of trust many have for their leaders the social situation could escalate dramatically over coming weeks..

Capital Flight
News is now beginning to surface with regards to the capital flight that’s taken place out of Greece since various austerity measures were put in place from 2010 onwards. Most notably the flight from May 2011. It’s been revealed over the weekend that certain Greek ministers were the first to quietly and efficiently panic. Many ‘ordinary’ Greeks are now reeling from weekend revelations that several politicians added to the capital flight that has exacerbated the country’s fiscal woes by transferring substantial deposits abroad in the last two years.

One MP is believed to have moved €1m euros to the UK as the finance ministry was desperately trying to halt the flight in May last year. Of the €65bn euro moved out of banks since late 2009 circa €16bn ended up overseas, according to the Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos. None of the MPs have been identified, the Greek media is demanding they reveal themselves..

The IMF And Germany
There wasn’t the intense media reporting of the G20 meeting this past weekend that has accompanied the more recent meetings. The nuts and bolts of what was discussed, agreed or disagreed, can be best summed up as this;

The IMF, in the form of Christine Lagarde, want the members to ‘cough up’ an extra $650 billion, to add to their very impotent $350 billion, in order to create a firewall to protect European banks. Many in the G20 are suggesting they’re not opposed to the idea in principle if the Eurozone members and the wider European community get their own house in order first. The call is for (most notably) Germany to provide more funds in the pot. Now Germany, in the form of Ms Angela Merkel, has suggested that this could prove difficult. An opinion poll published yesterday found that 62% of Germans oppose the new Greek deal. Ms Merkel has to approach her parliament today to ask for approval of the bailout package that was agreed last week, presumably this will pass, however, more clarity may be required as to just how deep the rabbit hole is for the Germans.

Germany’s interior minister has become the first member of Angela Merkel’s cabinet to suggest Greece should leave the eurozone. Hans-Peter Friedrich broke ranks in an interview with Der Spiegel:

Greece’s chances of regenerating and becoming competitive are definitely greater outside the eurozone than in. I’m not talking about kicking Greece out, but to create incentives for a departure which the Greeks will find hard to pass up.

 

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Market Overview
Global equities have fallen from their highest levels in seven months as the Group of 20 nations initially rejected calls from the euro area representatives to boost international lending resources. As a consequence Brent crude arrested it’s five-day rally and the yen strengthened from it’s major fall last week.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.5 percent. Brent oil retreated from a nine-month high. The yen gained versus all 16 of its most-traded peers. The cost of insuring against default on European corporate debt rose for the first time in three days, according to traders of credit-default swaps.

Brent crude decreased 1.1 percent to $124.06 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, after gaining 4.9 percent last week. Copper for delivery in three months fell as much as 0.9 percent on the London Metal Exchange. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell for the first time in eight sessions, declining 0.7 percent, after touching a nine-month high on Feb. 24.

Forex Spot-Lite

Yen bounces off Friday’s lows..

Many currency traders were expecting a sharp pull back from the yen lows experienced last Friday given the major yen and cross currency pairs were deep into oversold territory (using both the RSI and stochastic indicators). The dollar erased a gain of as much as 0.6 percent versus the yen as the RSI suggested the recent major rise came too quickly. The greenback’s 14-day relative strength index versus Japan’s currency was at 78.8, above the 70 level that some traders see as a sign an asset may be about to reverse direction.

The yen has appreciated 1.03 percent versus the dollar in the Asia Pacific session and maintained this rise in the morning European session were it’s climbed 1.4 percent versus the euro. Versus GBP the yen has risen 1.25%. The 17 nation currency is down circa 0.4% against the dollar at $1.3403. The Dollar Index rose 0.1 percent.

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