From Wednesday through Friday (GMT), forex traders will come face-to-face with four central bank decisions, a first look at US third-quarter growth, and the Fed’s inflation measure. That’s 72 hours, and the order matters, because each announcement changes the context for the next one.
The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday evening. The latest US growth and inflation figures come out the next morning, about 45 minutes before the ECB announces its own decision. The Bank of Japan then decides on Friday, with the yen trading against a backdrop defined by everything that came before.
The four banks aren’t in the same position, either. The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ each raised rates in September and are expected to hold this week. The Bank of Canada hasn’t changed its rate in a year, and markets now lean toward a hike on Wednesday, though economists remain split.
Wednesday: Canada first, then the Fed
Bank of Canada (13:45 GMT)
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025. In a Reuters poll taken October 21 to 23, 19 of 34 economists said the bank will raise it to 2.50% on Wednesday.
Markets have moved further. Rate futures priced in about a 30% chance of a hike before Governor Tiff Macklem’s October 17 comments on the bank’s inflation outlook. By Friday, October 23, Reuters said the odds had risen to around three in four. RBC also switched to forecasting a hike last week.
The case for waiting is real too. Continuum Economics expects a hold, citing two straight months of major job losses and core inflation that has slipped just under the 2% target.
If the bank does hike, the market will look at how much further it signals. The median of the Reuters poll puts the overnight rate at 2.75% after one more increase by March. If it holds, the new Monetary Policy Report takes over. Continuum still forecasts a December hike in that case, but calls it data-dependent rather than settled.
Federal Reserve (18:00 GMT, press conference 18:30)
At its September meeting, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the Fed’s first increase since 2023 and its first rate change since Kevin Warsh became chair in late May. Of the 18 officials who submitted rate projections, 16 expected at least one more hike before year-end. Warsh did not submit a projection.
US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September, up from 3.4% in August, according to BLS data. That’s CPI, though, not the PCE measure the Fed targets, and the two can tell different stories (more on that below).
As of October 26, CME FedWatch put the odds of a hold this week at 90.6%, and the odds of a hike at the December 9 meeting at 79.4%. PIMCO expects a hold this week, with the Fed still biased toward tightening.
Don’t expect the statement to spell out what comes next. At his first press conference as chair in June, Warsh said the Fed had dropped forward guidance, and the September statement shows it: a short text that describes the economy and closes with “The Committee will deliver price stability,” with no line on the future path of rates.
A dissent in favor of hiking now would make December a near certainty. Warsh’s view on financial conditions also matters. PIMCO notes that higher long-term Treasury yields are already doing some of the Fed’s tightening for it, which is one argument not to rush in.
Thursday: US data, then the ECB
US Q3 GDP and September PCE (12:30 GMT)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its first estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September personal income and outlays report, which includes PCE inflation, Thursday morning. That’s less than a day after the Fed’s decision. The Fed decides without them. Markets don’t.
The economy has kept growing. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate had Q2 growing at 2.2%, and the latest forecast from Continuum Economics sees 2.8% growth for Q3.
CPI and PCE differ. Because PCE measures a wider basket of consumer spending than the CPI and uses different weights, a hot CPI month doesn’t necessarily lead to a hot PCE month. This week’s forecasts, for example, look at two different statistics. The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast for the Core PCE Price Index comes in at about 3.05% year-to-date for September.
An annual rate near 3% fits with the December hike already priced in. A slower quarterly pace would give the market a reason to revisit it.
European Central Bank Decisions (13:15 GMT, press conference 13:45)
The ECB raised rates in June and again in September, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. The consensus is a hold this time. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, according to Eurostat, but core inflation was a more modest 2.5%. An ECB preview published on FXStreet also notes that energy costs have done little to push up underlying inflation, and firms’ selling price expectations in services and retail have eased.
Tension remains between the ECB and the market. As of October 26, overnight index swaps priced only about a 3% chance of a hike this week, but around 66 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months, according to RateProbability data. The FXStreet preview argued the ECB will tighten less than markets price in, even if energy prices keep rising. If Lagarde leans against that pricing, the market may have to scale it back. If she stresses the risks from energy costs and low gas storage, the pricing looks better supported.
The ECB also won’t be the first thing EUR/USD reacts to that afternoon. The US data lands 45 minutes earlier, so the euro goes into the decision already carrying whatever the GDP and PCE numbers did to the dollar. With no new staff projections at this meeting, Lagarde’s press conference answers are the main new information on the European side.
Friday: the Bank of Japan
The BoJ will make an announcement regarding its decision on Friday, October 30, at the same time as its Quarterly Outlook Report. It has no specific release time; however, most announcements are made around midday in Tokyo.
The policy rate is 1.25% after a September 18 hike, passed by 7 votes to 2. That was the BoJ’s second increase in three months, the fastest pace of increases since 1990, according to Bloomberg. A Bloomberg survey of BoJ watchers found that none expected a move this week, and 83% expected the next hike in December. Swaps pricing cited by Brown Brothers Harriman puts the probability of a December hike at around 75% to 80%.
This is where movement toward the December meeting may occur. According to a Reuters report on October 26, the BoJ is expected to announce it has hit its 2% inflation target, pointing to the risk that prices may overshoot. According to Mace News analysis published through investingLive, the December meeting will be certain because of the board’s hawks, whether Takata or Tamura disagrees, or the message hints at the next meeting.
The yen can also force the issue. Reuters sources said earlier this month that the BoJ is expected to hold unless the yen resumes its slide and lifts import costs. Whatever happens to the dollar on Wednesday and Thursday will feed directly into that.
The week at a glance
All times are GMT. Europe switched to winter time on October 25, but the US doesn’t change its clocks until November 1, so US releases land an hour earlier than usual for European traders this week.
| DAY | TIME | EVENT | POLICY RATE GOING IN | EXPECTED |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | 1:45 PM | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report | Overnight rate 2.25% | Hike to 2.50% favoured. Market odds around 75% to 80% (LSEG and Reuters, Oct 23) |
| Wed 28 Oct | 6:00 PM | Fed decision, press conference 18:30 | Fed funds target range 3.75% to 4.00% | Hold, with CME FedWatch pricing at 90.6% as of October 26 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 12:30 PM | US Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE | Data release | Q3 GDP 2.8%, Continuum Economics forecast |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1:15 PM | ECB – European Central Bank decisions, press conference 13:45 | Deposit facility rate 2.50% | Hold |
| Fri 30 Oct | Asian session | BoJ decision and Outlook Report | Policy rate 1.25% | Hold |
Where the week could turn
The EUR/USD currency pair is busy with a central bank meeting, US GDP and PCE, and an ECB meeting, all spaced within less than 24 hours. USD/CAD is busy with two central banks within the same afternoon. USD/JPY takes everything to Friday.
Three of the four banks are expected to hold, and economists are split on Ottawa’s decision. For the dollar, the bigger test may come Thursday morning, when PCE data either backs the December hike markets already price in or gives them reason to doubt it. No single report decides the Fed’s next move, which also depends on jobs data and financial conditions. But this one arrives after the Fed has already spoken.
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