The forex market operates according to the optimism or pessimism of market participants reflected on a currency pair at any given time. It is a collective emotion, also known as market sentiment. These collective sentiments determine whether the market should behave in a bullish or bearish manner.
Commercial players often prefer to move opposite the market sentiment, while individual traders usually move in the same direction. Players use sentiment indicators to determine market sentiment by drawing near-perfect market pictures. Among these sentiment indicators are:
- CBOE Volatility Index
- Put-Call Ratios
- Odd-Lot Trading Statistics
- Mutual Funds Statistics
- New York Stock Exchange High/Low Indicator
COT report:the ultimate sentiment indicator
The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is most commonly used and valuable as an indicator of sentiment. Every Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases a report that shows the average position of a group of traders in the futures market from the previous Tuesday.
Market participants submit their position data to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly.The following report clearly shows the positions of three different types of traders:
1. Hedgers
The majority of these are large multinational corporations with commercial hedging interests.
2. Large speculators
Commodity Trading Advisors is one example of a large institution that speculates in specific futures markets.
3. Small speculators
A leveraged player without a deep wallet falls into this category.
Why use the COT report?
Due to the COT reports’ links to futures markets, you can use them for Forex trading on currency pairs with future contracts. With COT reports, traders can trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and the like. Using a COT report is all about understanding the trend to make it your friend. Futures market operations are more transparent when COT reports are available. It simplifies futures market exchanges, which are often complex.\
In its weekly form, COT keeps traders informed of the latest developments in the futures market. By doing so, forex traders can make better decisions and execute their trades with less risk. The COT report is valuable not only for traders but also for researchers. It is common for academic researchers to use COT reports for their research.
How to use the COT report?
COT reports are the most effective trading tools in the long run. It is possible to make good use of COT reports in several ways. Here are a few of them:
1. COT as a reversal indicator
One method helps identify extreme positions – such as short or long ones. Due to these extreme positions, smart traders can identify when a trend reversal is imminent and take their trades accordingly.
2. COT as a trend finder
It indicates whether players are optimistic or pessimistic based on their collective sentiment. A trend indicator such as this gives a clear indication of the direction of the trend. Therefore, one of the most basic rules for analyzing a market is to befriend the trend. You can do this by using the COT report.
3. COT as a volume indicator
The COT report can serve as an essential volume indicator since it is released weekly. You should closely monitor an asset’s open interest numbers to do so. The more people who trade the futures contract of a particular asset, the greater the available interest number.
4. COT portfolio creation
COT reports can provide valuable insights into creating diversified currency portfolios. It is up to you whether you want an interest-neutral portfolio, one that is more volatile or one that is highly risky.
Bottom line
In recent years, COT reports have become an essential tool for all traders. A growing number of traders are using this valuable tool in reliable ways. Nevertheless, verifying these signals with data from other fundamental and technical analysis sources is always a good idea before making trading decisions.
