Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 18 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

2013-02-18 06:15 GMT
G20 statement settles on generalities; approval to keep selling the Yen?
The G20 weekend meeting and its final statement settled again on generalities, with key passages posing little risk to neither discredit nor criticize ongoing Japanese polices, where no specific mention was noticed. As Sean Callow, Westpac FX strategist, notes: "G20 statements always reflect the difficulty in reaching agreement among nations with often quite diverse policy approaches, settling on generalities with little risk of shaking up markets. Once again, for FX markets, the Moscow statement offered only a modest tweak compared to the Nov 2012 Mexico City statement"

Some key FX-related passages obtained from the statement can be found below: – “We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes”. – "We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility…" – "We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. In brief, as Forexlive editor Eamonn Sheridan, notes: "If policy is aimed at achieving results in the domestic economy then its OK. Of course, it is difficult to gauge whether domestic policies are, or are not, aimed at weakening the currency." -FXstreet.com

Forex Economic Calendar

N/A | China. FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD)(YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-18 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Current Account s.a (Dec)
2013-02-18 14:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-02-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News

2013-02-18 05:37 GMT | EUR/USD faces worsening technicals/fundametals
2013-02-18 04:25 GMT | GBP/USD deepens below 1.5500
2013-02-18 03:20 GMT | Next RBA move likely coming in May – NAB
2013-02-18 02:42 GMT | USD/JPY stalls below 94.20 stops

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33585 | LOW: 1.33254 | BID: 1.33447 | ASK: 1.33453 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08:02:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Positive tone establishment is limited to the next resistive means at 1.3357 (R1). Break here is required to allow further strengthening towards to our immediate targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3325 (S1). Medium-term downside expansion would then be targeting marks at 1.3303 (S2) and 1.3282 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.3357, 1.3379, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3325, 1.3303, 1.3282

GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.5508 | LOW: 1.54713 | BID: 1.54926 | ASK: 1.54934 | CHANGE: -0.12% | TIME: 08:02:25
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Price action looks mainly consolidative, though violation of our resistance at 1.5512 (R1) would be a signal of possible uptrend formation with next expected targets ahead at 1.5536 (R2) and 1.5559 (R3). Downwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation on the downside today though break of next support level at 1.5471 (S1) might extend easing towards to expected targets at 1.5449 (S2) and 1.5425 (S3) levels.

Resistance Levels: 1.5512, 1.5536, 1.5559
Support Levels: 1.5471, 1.5449, 1.5425

USDJPY

HIGH: 94.216 | LOW: 93.708 | BID: 93.990 | ASK: 93.998 | CHANGE: 0.58% | TIME: 08:02:26 OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at the fresh high – 94.21 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gain would then be targeting last resistance at 94.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 93.83 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.68 (S2) and 93.51 (S3) later on.

Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.38, 94.54
Support Levels: 93.83, 93.68, 93.51

Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.