Being the “Glass Half Empty” kind of guy, the eternal pessimist, it is hard for me to get excited over things like FOMC minutes and Federal Reserve speechmakers. Month after month for too many years, politicians and economists have all staked their reputations on the end of the recession and the return of growth.
Every time a positive report was released, the headlines shouted, no recession, no depression, recovery on the way and within days, the news turned negative. Budget cuts, legislative actions, new initiatives, monetary policy came with lots of promises that never seemed to come true.
Earlier this week, I read the FOMC minutes as they expressed a more positive view of the economy, followed by the Fed Chairman, assuring the public that recovery was here, slow but here. I still did not believe and I still did not get excited. I watched Gold do exactly what Gold should do it we are entering a true recovery phase, but I was still not a believer.
Today, I sat down to read the financial news and item after item, report after report jumped off the computer screen. Each piece of news more positive and each piece of news each line of data, filled in the puzzle pieces of the economy.
Everything seemed to come together at one time, as if the moon and stars were talking to me.
I was sure the jobless claims this week would not substantiate last week’s NFP report, but the report said:
the number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week to 351,000, matching a four-year low, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 365,000 from 362,000.
Ok, next article, it was only the Empire State manufacturing report, I never pay attention to these regional reports anyway, but what did it say:
The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 20.2 in March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. This is the fourth straight increase after the index had sunk below zero from June through October.
Report after report, they were flying off the screen at me, like some nightmare or dream.. yelling “Recovery, Recovery. Good News, Good News”
U.S. wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in February, the fastest increase in five months, sparked by higher petroleum costs, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Foreign investors were buyers in January of a net $94.7 billion of long-term U.S. securities, Treasury Department data released Thursday showed. This is much stronger than the revised $19.4 billion of net sales in December.
Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region edged higher in March to its highest reading since last April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported Thursday. The bank’s business condition index rose to 12.5 in March from 10.2 in February.
Foreclosure activity fell 8% nationally, compared with a year ago according to RealtyTrac’s latest report.
Ok, I give up.. so recovery is here.. What should I do, sell gold and buy dollars.. Dang.. I already did that.. I guess recovery is here. I bet President Obama sleeps well tonight.