WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 25/9-29/9|Japan delivers a torrent of economic data, as does the USA. Canada’s GDP comes into sharp focus, whilst N.Z. is expected to keep key interest rate at 1.75%
Japan publishes a vast amount of economic data on Thursday evening and Friday morning, which should be closely monitored by traders who specialise in (or who favour) trading yen. In terms of its safe haven appeal to position traders, or as a major currency pair versus the U.S. dollar, the Asian currency can react to this traditional and significant monthly data provision. The bank of Japan’s governor Kuroda will be delivering a speech in Osaka on Monday, Janet Yellen also delivers a speech on Tuesday, both are listed as high impact events.
There’s focus on both hard and soft data relating to the USA this coming week; consumer confidence, house sale data, durable goods orders, trade balance, personal expenditure and consumption form the key USA metrics for analysis, during an extremely busy week for USA data. Focus will be on the RBNZ latest decision regarding N.Z.’s interest rate, whilst Canada is in the spotlight, due to the Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz, holding a conference and delivering a speech during the same week that Canada’s impressive GDP growth of 4.3% YoY, is expected to maintain its momentum.
Early Monday morning begins the week’s economic calendar with Germany’s import prices, both MoM and YoY, Japan’s Nikkei manufacturing PMI will be published for September, as will the leading index and coincident index for Japan. The country’s economic data concludes for the morning, with governor Kuroda giving a speech in Osaka, and late evening the BOJ minutes of its July meeting are revealed. Shortly after the Vice President of the ECB will deliver a speech in Frankfurt. Swiss domestic and total sight deposits are then revealed by the SNB, thereafter the various German IFO readings are published. Late evening a raft of data regarding New Zealand is delivered; exports, imports and the trade balance figure for August and annually.
Tuesday continues with N.Z. delivering the business confidence reading, activity outlook and the acting governor of the RBNZ beginning to officially adopt the role. We then wait until early afternoon for the next key data releases, with the release of the various Case Schiller readings for home prices. The key reading for prices in the twenty key cities is currently at 5.65%, nationally it’s at 5.77%. New home sales will be published for the USA, both MoM and annually, then the key consumer confidence reading for September will be revealed by the conference board, forecast to fall to 119, from 122.9. Early afternoon/midday USA time, Janet Yellen delivers a keynote speech, at the NABE conference.
Wednesday Germany publishes its retail figures, both MoM and YoY, after the surprise fall registered for August by -1.2%, an improvement is sought for both calendar metrics. The Japanese small business confidence reading for September is published, as is the Swiss consumption indicator for September. As attention turns to the USA, the latest durable goods orders data is revealed, after a dramatic fall by -6.8% in August, a recovery to 1.5% is predicted. Pending home sales data for the USA is predicted to rise above the negative metrics delivered last month. Crude oil inventories for the USA will be carefully monitored, given the continued disruption caused by the tropical storm Harvey in and offshore Texas. The Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz delivers a speech and holds a press conference, at which he’s expected to discuss the outlook of the economy, after the recent interest rate rise. Late evening European time, New Zealand’s central bank will reveal its latest interest rate decision, the overwhelming forecast is for the rate to remain unchanged, at 1.75%.
Thursday we receive the latest nationwide house price data from the UK’s Nationwide Bank, prices fell by -0.1% in August, a September improvement is expected. Various confidence readings for Germany and the Eurozone will be published; the economic and business confidence readings are regarded as the most relevant. Shortly after we receive the latest information concerning Germany’s CPI inflation, the prediction is for both the monthly (0.1%) and YoY (1.8%) metrics to remain unchanged. As New York begins to ready itself for the market open, the latest Q2 GDP figures for the globe’s largest economy are revealed, the USA growth is currently 3.0% calculated on an annual basis, an improvement to 3.2% is predicted. There’s a plethora of other data published at the same time for the USA economy, including wholesale inventories and the advanced goods trade balance, predicted to come in at -$65b for August. Late evening New Zealand publishes its latest building permits data and the polling and data firm GfK reveals the latest consumer confidence survey for the U.K. Later that evening there’s a huge data dump of key economic information from Japan, the most relevant are; the jobless rate, CPI, the BOJ summary of opinions from their last meeting, retail trade figures, large retailer sales, industrial production and the loans and discount detail. Given the rapid fire delivery of this data, it’s a reasonable assumption to suggest that the value of yen will come under close scrutiny.
Friday continues with Japanese data, in terms of outright bond purchases. Private sector credit detail is provided for Australia’s economy. The key Caixan manufacturing PMI for China is published. The 24 hour torrent of Japanese data continues with revelations regarding: vehicle production, construction orders and housing starts. As European equity markets prepare to open, Germany’s latest unemployment figures will be revealed; the current rate of 5.7% is forecast to remain unchanged. Various U.K. data; consumer credit, current account, mortgage approvals, secured lending on dwellings, money supply, business investment and finally the latest GDP figure will be published, forecast to remain at circa 1.7% annualised. Europe’s YoY CPI is expected to remain close to the current rate of 1.5%. North America then takes over the mantle for economic calendar news; Canada’s latest GDP data is forecast to remain close to the current impressive 4.3% growth rate. The economic calendar week finishes with a bang, as the USA provides a huge raft of data, ensuring that traders need to be on their game right up to the end of the week. Personal expenditure and consumption growth data is published, whilst the Michigan confidence reading is the highlight contained in a comprehensive list of Michigan UNI intel. Finally the traditional Baker Hughes rig count brings the week’s key data to a close. However, the weekly data doesn’t officially end until China publishes its latest non manufacturing and manufacturing PMIs on Saturday.