Mar 29 • Morning Roll Call • 1718 Views • Comments Off on MORNING ROLL CALL

U.S. equity markets rebound, oil rises, as the dollar claws back some of its recent lossesbetween-the-lines1

The USA equity markets arrested their recent slump and bounced back into positive territory on Tuesday. A Conference Board survey recorded a reading of 125.6, ahead of the 116 predicted, which indicated that USA consumers are now more confident, with regards to their personal economic security, than at any time since 2000.

Janet Yellen, suggesting that the Fed still had concerns with regards to stubborn pockets of unemployment, implied to investors that the interest rate rises (supposedly pencilled in for 2017), may be delayed and that the Fed hasn’t taken its eye off the ball.

There was other positive news concerning the USA economy, namely: house prices rising by circa 5.73% annually, according to the Case Shiller index. The monthly advanced goods trade balance deficit coming in better than forecast at -$64.8b, wholesale inventories rising by 0.4% and The Richmond Fed manufacturing index, coming in ahead of forecast at 22. The DJIA closed up 0.73%, the SPX up 0.73% and the NASDAQ up 0.60%.

European markets also enjoyed bullish sessions; Euro STOXX 50 closing up 0.81%, UK’s FTSE up 0.68%, DAX up 1.28% and France’s CAC closed up 0.57%.

Gold rose to the highest level in approx a month at $1,258.80 in New York, before slipping back sharply to $1250 per ounce towards the close of the day. Crude oil rose due to reports that Libya curbed shipments from its biggest oil field, cooling fears with regards to the global oil glut. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) added circa 1% to reach up to $48.37 per barrel at one stage during the New York session, before slipping back to $47.99, this advance followed the 0.5% fall witnessed the previous day.

The Dollar Spot Index, a basket of the U.S. dollar’s most traded peers, added circa 0.5%, stopping its two-day slide. EUR/USD weakened by circa 0.4% to 1.0813, USD/JPY rose by approx. 0.6% to 111.61. GBP/USD fell by circa 0.5% to 1.245. Whilst dollar strength returning to the market was responsible for the dollar’s gain versus the UK’s pound, sterling also experienced a sell off versus all of its peers, as a consequence of investors focusing on the Article 50 invocation, to be executed on Wednesday.

Economic calendar events for March 29th, all times quoted are London (GMT) time.

00:00, currency impacted GBP. UK PM May Triggers Article 50, Starting Brexit Process.

06:00, currency impacted EUR. German Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB). German import prices are rising sharply, the forecast is for an annual rise to 7.0%, from 6.0% previously.

08:30, currency impacted GBP. Net Consumer Credit (FEB). The prediction is that UK borrowers have racked up 1.3b of extra credit in Feb., from 1.4b in Jan.

08:30, currency impacted GBP. Mortgage Approvals (FEB). The approval rate is estimated to have remained unchanged at 69.5.

11:00, currency impacted USD. MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 24). Mortgage approvals fell by -2.7% according to the previous week’s data, markets will be looking for a potential rebound into positive territory.

14:00, currency impacted USD. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB). Investors and analysts will be anticipating an improvement on the 2.7% annual rise previously and a bounce back from the -2.8% monthly (seasonal) fall experienced in January.

14:30, currency impacted USD. DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories. With the price of oil being quite sensitive to current market conditions, the last week’s recorded inventory of 4954k, will be monitored carefully, in order to establish if the recently built up stockpiles of oil are finally diminishing.

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