The UK’s Spring Budget, the ECB’s and RBA’s interest rate decisions and NFP day form the basis of the key fundamental economic releases for the week
Early Monday morning sees the release of the latest Australian retail figures; forecast to have risen to 0.4% in February, from the surprise fall of -0.1% in January. From 9am there is a raft of European PMIs released, most prominently Germany’s construction PMI and the Eurozone’s retail PMI.
USA factory orders are expected to show a fall to a small 1.0% rise in January, from 1.3% in December. The forecast, for USA durable goods orders, is a fall to a 1.0% rise, from 1.8% previously.
Tuesday witnesses the Royal Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision, the prediction is for no change, from the current rate of 1.5%. Germany’s factory orders metric (year on year) is expected to show a ‘seasonal’ fall, from 8.1% to 4.3%. The UK’s Halifax house price index is forecast to come in at 5.3% year on year, down from 5.9% in January. Europe’s GDP (YoY) is anticipated to come in at 1.7%.
The USA’s trade balance is estimated at -$48b for January, worsening by $5b since December. Consumer credit in the USA is forecast to rise to $17.2b in Feb, up $3b in a month. Adding more curiosity to the economic reality/optimism dislocation and distortion ‘puzzle’ in the USA.
Japan’s latest GDP reading is published late Tuesday evening, with the prediction of a rise from 1.0% to 1.7%, the data will be regarded as another test for Abenomics, prime minister Abe’s QE + ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) monetarist policies.
Wednesday morning witnesses a raft of Asian data published, the stand out readings being China’s direct foreign investment, predicted to have improved to -4.2%. The leading index for Japan is expected to come in at 105.4. Germany’s industrial production is forecast to have fallen to -0.6% annually.
The UK’s chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget on Wednesday, forward guidance suggests there’ll be little in the way of surprises and that Philip Hammond will refuse to increase public spending, instead preferring to continue with austerity measures, due to the looming negative impact of Brexit.
The USA, ADP jobs number for February is published, the prediction is for a fall to 185k jobs created, from the 246k previously in January. USA wholesale inventories are published, which are predicted to come in at -0.1%.
Thursday sees the publication of China’s latest consumer inflation figure, predicted to show a 7.5% annual rise. The OECD will publish its latest prediction for Europe. The ECB reveals its interest rate decisions, predicted to remain at: 0.00%, 0.25% for marginal lending and -0.4% for deposits. The asset purchase scheme (QE by any other definition) is predicted to remain steady, at €80b per month.
In the USA import prices are forecast to have risen by 4.3% year on year, weekly jobless claims are estimated to come in at 237k, with continual claims at 2060k.
Friday’s first major economic calendar news event releases come from Germany. A raft of German data includes: trade balance; forecast to fall marginally to €18b for the month of Jan., exports to have risen by 2% in Jan., imports to have risen by 0.5% and the current account balance for January to have fallen to €15.4b for the month.
Focus then moves to the UK’s economy, with the publication of year on year production, forecast to have fallen to 3.2%, annual manufacturing to have shrunk to 2.9%, construction to have shrunk to 0.2% year on year and the trade balance data forecast to have deteriorated. The BoE will broadcast its prediction for UK inflation, previously at 2.8%. This could prove to be a volatile day for sterling coming close after the UK’s Spring Budget if the data is not received well by the investment community.
Canada’s unemployment rate is forecast to remain static at 6.8%, the USA NFP number is expected in at 190k jobs created in February. The unemployment rate is estimated to fall to 4.8%. Participation rate is predicted to come in at 62.9%, with the underemployment rate for the USA at 9.4%. The USA monthly budget statement for February is estimated to come in at -$152b, a significant deterioration from $51.3b in January.
Economic Calendar (all times quoted are London GMT time)
Monday, 6 March
00:30 – Australia retail sales
09:30 – Eurozone Sentix investor confidence
15:00 – US factory orders
Tuesday, 7 March
00:01: UK BRC retail sales monitor
03:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate & rate statement
05:00 – Bank of Japan core CPI
07:00 – German factory orders
08:30 – UK Halifax house price index
13:30 – Canada trade balance
15:00 – Canada Ivey PMI
23:50 – Japan final GDP reading (Q4, 2016)
Wednesday, 8 March
Tentative – China trade balance
12:30 – UK Spring Budget
13:15 – US ADP nonfarm employment change
15:30 – US crude oil inventories
Thursday, 9 March
01:30 – China CPI, PPI inflation
06:00 – Japan preliminary machine tool orders
09:00 – Italy industrial production
12:45 – ECB interest rate decision
13:30 – ECB press conference
13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims
Friday, 10 March
09:30 – UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance, industrial production, construction output
13:30 – US nonfarm payrolls
