Jul 14 • Morning Roll Call • 1632 Views • Comments Off on MORNING ROLL CALL

DJIA prints a new record high, oil rises, U.S. Dollar slips versus peers, as does the euro

A raft of official Chinese data was published early Thursday morning, all beating the consensus forecasts made by the panels of economic experts who Reuters and Bloomberg poll; imports have risen by 23.1% YoY whilst exports have risen by 17.3%, China’s trade balance came in at $42.8b for June. Whilst Chinese data doesn’t directly move the Western Hemisphere FX markets upon release, analysts and investors very quickly join the dots to establish if the Chinese economy is powering ahead which, based on these latest set of figures, it obviously is. China’s economy directly effects the value of the Aussie and Kiwi dollar and yen. New Zealand’s farming industry is heavily reliant on exports to China and Australia’s mineral exports are essential to China’s seemingly infinite construction drive.

European economic calendar news concerned Germany’s CPI, coming in as forecast at 1.6% YoY, whilst Swiss import prices came in at -0.1% YoY. From the UK, the office of budget responsibility published findings on the impact the UK’s Brexit would have on the UK’s economy, in short; they suggested that a deep recession would probably be induced and that the UK could enter into negative growth, as early as 2018. The Bank of England also published their concerns regarding escalating consumer credit, suggesting that the U.K. could experience a mild credit crunch in order to reduce personal credit appetite. Their concerns are heightened by credit card defaults rising sharply and court action versus creditors increasing by 35% YoY in Q1 2017. The main European markets closed up with the exception of the UK’s FTSE, which closed down marginally by 0.05%. STOXX 50 closed up 0.36%, DAX up 0.12% and CAC up 0.25%.

Canada’s new house prices continue to rise, up 3.8% YoY. Various PPI data was published for the USA on Thursday; the “final demand” metric came in ahead of forecast, at 2% YoY. USA weekly job claims missed the prediction, coming in at 247k, although continuing claims beat forecast. Deep into the New York session, the monthly budget deficit came in at -$90.2b, missing the forecast of -$38b by a considerable distance. Janet Yellen testified before the Senate banking committee on Thursday, her non contentious views and overall satisfaction with the USA economy, appeared to satisfy markets. The DJIA closed up 0.01%, SPX up 0.19% and Nasdaq up 0.21%.

USD/CAD continued its momentum move as a consequence of yesterday’s central bank interest rate rise, ending the day up circa 0.2% at 1.2725. EUR/USD rose by approx. 0.1% at 1.3989, GBP/USD rose by circa 0.4% to 1.2940. USD/JPY ended the day at approx. 113.28, the U.S. Dollar index reached its lowest level since September 22nd.

WTI oil added circa 1.4% to end the day up at 46.18%, reports that global demand is predicted to increase, despite the glut of oil taking time to reduce, helped propel oil to rise for its fourth day in series. Gold’s lack of safe haven appeal caused it to slip by circa 0.3% to $1216 per ounce.

Economic calendar events for July 14th, all times quoted are London GMT time

09:00, currency impacted EUR. Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAY). The forecast is for an increase to 20.2b, from 19.6b in April.

12:30, currency impacted USD. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN). The main inflation figure is predicted to fall to 1.7%, from 1.9%.

12:30, currency impacted USD. Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN). The expectation is an improvement to 0.1%, from -0.3% recorded in May.

13:15, currency impacted USD. Industrial Production (JUN). The forecast is for an improvement to 0.3%, from 0.0% in May.

13:15, currency impacted USD. Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN). The prediction is for a rise of 0.2%, from -0.4% registered in May.

14:00, currency impacted USD. U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P). The expectation is for a figure of 95.0, from 95.1 in June.

14:00, currency impacted USD. Business Inventories (MAY). The forecast is for a rise to 0.3%, from the -0.2% recorded in April.


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