MORNING ROLL CALL
Eurozone inflation, the politics and GDPs of the USA and U.K. and Japanese hard data will dominate this week’s news
The politics of the U.K. will be in focus throughout the week as the minority Tory government have to gain a majority vote in the House of Commons, in order to govern. Whilst the progress of Brexit, or more likely the lack of progress, will continue to come under scrutiny. It’s a busy week for the USA politically as a health care vote comes up and may paralyse the govt, leading to the belief that Donald Trump is Donald lame Duck when it comes to passing his domestic policy agenda.
GDPs and CPIs are published for many countries this coming week, and it’s an extremely busy week for Japanese data, therefore the yen could come under pressure on the markets.
Monday begins with Mario Draghi president of the ECB meeting in a forum with Carney of the BoE, Kuroda of the BOJ and later Bernanke, the former chairman of the Fed. There’s also IFO sentiment data published for Germany. From the USA we receive durable goods orders for May; the forecast is for a -0.6% reading; a slight improvement from the -0.8% reading published for April. Late evening various New Zealand govt data will be published on: exports, imports and balance of trade.
Tuesday witnesses the UK’s governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney delivering a financial stability report. Later the U.K. will welcome Janet Yellen to London as she speaks on global economics. The UK’s CBI will publish its reported sales. From the USA we’ll receive the latest Case Shiller house price reports, the forecast is for the year on year house price inflation to remain constant at 5.9%. USA confidence is expected to slip to a reading of 116 for June, from 117.9 in May. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for June is expected to improve to 7 from 1.
Wednesday witnesses the publication of Germany’s latest import and export price growth, import prices are forecast to come in at 4.6%, with export prices predicted to have fallen to a -0.6% reading in May. Weekly mortgage applications are expected to beat the -0.6% growth reported last week, advanced goods trade balance is forecast to report at -$66b, a marginal improvement in one of the many deficits the USA economy perpetually runs. Wholesale and retail inventory data is also published for the USA, as are pending home sales, expected to come in at 0.8% growth in May, but the -5.8% fall in year on year sales is forecast to remain relatively unchanged. Several Japanese metrics are published late evening, such as; retail trade and retailers sales which late night/early morning yen traders should monitor carefully.
Thursday Germany’s GfK consumer confidence survey is released, from the UK we receive: net consumer credit data for May, mortgage approvals and lending secured on dwellings data. Various Eurozone sentiment and confidence readings are reported, thereafter Germany’s CPI figure is published, for the month and annually. A reading of zero is expected for June and an annual figure of 1.4%. From the USA we’ll receive the latest GDP figure, it’s expected to come in at 1.4% annualised and 1.2% quarterly annualised. Personal consumption data for the first quarter in the USA will be published, as will be weekly jobless claims. Late evening it’s another key period for yen traders as Japan publishes several government metrics; unemployment, household spending, industrial production and critically the latest CPI reading. CPI is expected to come in at 0.5% YoY.
Friday begins with China publishing their manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI data, housing starts and production data is published for Japan. European news concerns Germany’s retail sales, expected to come in at 2.8% growth YoY, whilst German unemployment is forecast to remain at 5.7%. Euro CPI is expected to come in at 1.2% YoY. The UK’s final GDP figure is expected to come in 0.2% for Q1 2017 and 2% YoY. Attention then turns to North America, Canada’s GDP is published expected to come in at 3.3% and at 0.2% for April. The week ends with a raft of USA official data such as; personal spending and consumption, with core expenditure being the key reading investors will be concentrating on, forecast to come in at 1.4% annual growth. Chicago’s purchasing manager’s index for June will be published, forecast to slip to 58, as will the university of Michigan’s confidence survey, expected to come in unchanged at 94.5.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR (all times are London time)
Monday, 26 June
09:00 – German IFO business climate
09:30 – BBA mortgage approvals
13:30 – US core durable goods orders
Tuesday, 27 June
07:45 – French preliminary CPI
15:00 – US CB consumer confidence
Wednesday, 28 June
07:00 – UK Nationwide house price index
10:00 – Italian preliminary CPI
15:00 – US pending home sales
15:30 – US crude oil inventories
Thursday, 29 June
All day – Italy bank holiday
00:50 – Japan retail sales
02:00 – ANZ business confidence
07:00 – German preliminary CPI
08:00 – Spanish flash CPI
09:30 – UK net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals
13:30 – US final Q1 GDP reading, weekly unemployment claims
Friday, 30 June
00:01 – UK GfK consumer confidence
00:30 – Japan household spending, national core CPI, Tokyo core CPI, unemployment rates
00:50 – Japan preliminary industrial production
02:00 – China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs
09:30 – UK current account, final Q1 GDP reading
10:00 – Eurozone CPI and core CPI flash estimates
13:30 – Canada GDP, core PCE price index
14:45 – US Chicago PMI
15:00 – Revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment
