USA equities close flat, European markets improve marginally, sterling, euro and U.S. dollar stay stuck in ranges
Despite the UK enduring recent disappointing ‘hard data’ publications, the UK’s influential CBI delivered some cheer for pessimistic UK business leaders on Thursday, by publishing an optimistic trends survey for both selling prices and orders; orders came in at a reading of 7, beating expectations of 16, whilst selling prices came in at 23 ahead of the forecast of 20. However, increased selling prices are not necessarily a positive outcome, as it could be indicative of inflationary price pressure building up in the supply chain. The UK’s FTSE closed down 0.11%, its third day of losses. Sterling closed the day out flat versus the majority of its currency peers, cable (GBP/USD) ending the day at circa 1.2685, up approx. 0.1%.
Elsewhere in Europe the key economic news concerned the EU 28 meeting, soon to be 27 as the UK is in the process of beginning its Brexit. The UK’s prime minister was welcomed, she had a brief chat, then she was ostracised, as the 27 met separately to discuss excluding the UK from the European Union. Eurozone confidence has fallen in June, to -1.3, but it beat the forecast of -3.0 and was significantly ahead of the -3.3 registered in May. European indices experienced mixed fortunes on Thursday; STOXX 50 up 0.04%, CAC up 0.15%, DAX up 0.15%. The euro fell versus the Swissie and Loonie, EUR/CHF breaching S2 late in the New York session, to close out at circa 1.0837, with EUR/CAD at 1.4757, breaching S1.
USA weekly initial jobless claims came in at 431k, just missing the forecast, house prices increased by 0.8% in April, whilst the leading indicators reading came in as forecast at 0.3% for May. U.S. equities experienced mixed fortunes; DJIA closed down 0.06%, SPX down 0.05% and NASDAQ closed up 0.04%. The Dollar Spot Index fell by circa 0.1%, experiencing losses mainly versus the Canadian dollar, which bounced back due to improved retail sales from Canada (up 1.5% in April) and due to crude’s modest daily rally.
USD/JPY was close to flat on the day at 111.27. West Texas oil rose 0.6% to $42.77 a barrel, improving after entering into a technical bear market earlier on Wednesday; a 20% fall from the recent yearly high. Investors remain focused on the supply glut, which is countering any sustained OPEC efforts to reduce stockpiles. Gold rose by 0.3% to $1,250 an ounce, extending gains after finally arresting a five day slump on Wednesday.
Economic calendar events for June 23rd, all times quoted are London GMT time
06:45, currency impacted EUR. French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F). France’s GDP is expected in at 0.4% for Q1 2016, matching Q4 2016.
06:45, currency impacted EUR. French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q F). The annual GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 1.0%.
07:30, currency impacted EUR. Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jun P). A reading of 59.5 is expected, ahead of 59 in May.
07:30, currency impacted EUR. Markit Germany Services PMI (Jun P). The anticipated reading of 55.4, would match May’s reading.
07:30, currency impacted EUR. Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (Jun P). A reading of 57.2 would be a slight fall, on the 57.4 experienced in May.
08:00, currency impacted EUR. Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun P). A slight fall is predicted to 56.8, from 57.0 in May.
08:00, currency impacted EUR. Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Jun P). Again another modest fall is expected, to 56.1 from 56.3.
08:00, currency impacted EUR. Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun P). A slight fall is forecast, to 56.6 from 56.8.
12:30, currency impacted CAD. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May). CPI in Canada is predicted to fall to 1.5%, from 1.6%.
13:45, currency impacted USD. Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Jun P). An improvement to 52.9, from 52.7 is expected.
13:45, currency impacted USD. Markit US Services PMI (Jun P). A rise to 53.9, from 53.6 is forecast.
13:45, currency impacted USD. Markit US Composite PMI (Jun P). The previous month’s reading of 53.6 is expected to improve.
14:00, currency impacted USD. New Home Sales (May). New home sales are forecast to rise to 593k in May, from 569k in April.