Germany and France post moderate GDP increases for the last quarter of 2013, whilst Italy GDP expands for first time since spring 2011

Feb 14 • Mind The Gap • 2032 Views • Comments Off on Germany and France post moderate GDP increases for the last quarter of 2013, whilst Italy GDP expands for first time since spring 2011

shutterstock_70331923Construction output in the UK has risen. According to the latest data available from the ONS output in the last quarter of 2013 rose by 0.2%. New work increased by 0.7%. Quarterly the increase in construction output rose by an impressive 3.4%.

France has published its latest unemployment data this morning, it’s a flash estimate that shows that France has added 14,700 jobs over the last month, however, circa 24,000 of these jobs are of a temporary nature therefore the devil is in the detail.

France’s and Germany’s latest GDP figures have been published this morning. Germany’s is up 0.4%, consistent with the moderate improvement the economy has made in recent months. French GDP has increased by 0.3% taking the French economy out of negative growth, now posting a 0.3% rise for the year.

Italy’s GDP finally improved expanding for the first time since spring 2011. Only by 0.1%, however, it represented the first quarter’s growth after ten notes in series of falls.

Euro GDP rose by 0.3%, in the EA17 and by 0.4% in the wider EA28 during the last quarter of 2013 according to Eurostat the official European stats agency.

Chinese inflation has remained stable in January, reversing a long-established pattern of a spike in prices ahead of the country’s New Year holiday. Consumer prices rose 2.5 per cent from a year earlier, the same as in December. The reason for the more moderate inflation pressure, compared with the normal seasonal rhythm, were subdued food prices in the lead-up to New Year.

Chinese banks’ bad loans increased for the ninth straight quarter to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting pressures on asset quality and profit growth as the world’s second-largest economy treads water.

Asian stocks outside Japan rose and silver headed for its longest streak of gains since March 2008. The yen climbed against most major peers, Indonesia’s rupiah led emerging-market currencies higher.

George Osborne dismissed Scottish National party calls for a post-independence currency union, warning Scotland’s voters they can’t keep the pound if they choose to end the three-century old union with England.

Output in the UK Construction Industry

The seasonally adjusted estimate of construction output in Q4 2013 is estimated to have risen by 0.2% when compared with Q3 2013. During this period there was an increase in the volume of construction new work of 0.7% but a decrease in the output of repair & maintenance of 0.5%. The monthly output of construction in December 2013 is estimated to be 2.0% higher when compared with November 2013. The pattern seen in the quarterly data is repeated in the monthly data, with new work showing growth (3.4%) alongside a slight fall in the output of repair & maintenance (0.2%).

French Flash estimate – Job creation in competitive sectors – 4th Quarter 2013

In Q4 2013, payroll employment in principally market sectors recovered q-o-q (+14,700 jobs), after a drop in the previous quarter (-15,600). Industry and construction drifted this quarter, whereas services revived. Excluding temporary work, employment fell again in Q4 2013 (-9,200 jobs). Strong increase in temporary employment Temporary employment rose sharply this quarter (+23,900 jobs), after a stabilization over 2013.

Euro area GDP up by 0.3%

GDP rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.4% in the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2013, GDP grew by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.5% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2013, after -0.3% and +0.2% respectively in the previous quarter.

German Gross domestic product up 0.4% in 4th quarter of 2013

The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.4% on the third quarter of 2013 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. In the two previous quarters, too, the German economy had grown (by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively), following stagnation at the beginning of the year. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this results in a 0.4% increase for the whole year of 2013 (calendar-adjusted: + 0.5%).

French GDP increased by 0.3% in Q4 and over the year

In Q4 2013, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a stability in Q3. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.3% after a stagnation in 2012. Household consumption expenditure accelerated by the end of the year (+0.5% after +0.1%). Furthermore, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rose for the first time since the end of 2011 (+0.6% after –0.3%). Thus, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) accelerated significantly and contributed for +0.5 points to GDP after a neutral contribution in Q3. In Q4 2013, exports bounced back (+1.2% after –1.6%) while imports decelerated slightly (+0.5% after +0.8%).

French Flash estimate – Job creation in competitive sectors – 4th Quarter 2013

In Q4 2013, payroll employment in principally market sectors recovered q-o-q (+14,700 jobs), after a drop in the previous quarter (-15,600). Industry and construction drifted this quarter, whereas services revived. Excluding temporary work, employment fell again in Q4 2013 (-9,200 jobs). Strong increase in temporary employment Temporary employment rose sharply this quarter (+23,900 jobs), after a stabilization over 2013.

Italy GDP expands for first time since spring 2011

Italy’s economy grew in the final three months of 2013 for the first time in 10 quarters, expanding 0.1% in inflation-adjusted terms from the previous quarter, national statistics institute Istat said Friday, citing preliminary data. Italy’s gross domestic product declined 1.8% in real terms from the final quarter of 2012, Istat said. Both figures were in line with the average forecast of 14 economists polled earlier.

Market snapshot at 10:00 am UK time

The ASX 200 closed up 0.91% on the day, the CSI 300 up 0.70%, Hang Seng up 0.60% as the Nikkei sold off sharply by 1.53%. European bourses have opened up; euro STOXX is up 0.65%, CAC up 0.44%, DAX up 0.64% whilst the FTSE is up by 0.10%.

Looking towards the New York open the DJI equity index future is up 0.06%, SPX up 0.05% and the NASDAQ up 0.15%.

NYMEX WTI oil has slipped below the crucial handle of $100 a barrel, down 0.50% at $98.85 per barrel. NYMEX nat gas is up 0.69% at $5.27 per therm. COMEX gold is up 0.69% at $1309.10 per ounce with silver on COMEX up 2.55% at $20.86 per ounce.

Forex focus

The yen climbed 0.4 percent to 101.81 per dollar early in London, extending its advance to 0.5 percent this week. Japan’s currency bought 139.29 per euro, 0.3 percent stronger than yesterday and up 0.2 percent since Feb. 7th. The dollar was little changed at $1.3679 per euro after touching $1.3692 yesterday, the weakest since Jan. 27th. The yen rose versus the dollar for a third-straight day, the longest stretch in more than three weeks, before U.S. data today that may show industrial production gains moderated, while consumer sentiment declined.

Australia’s dollar rallied following a two-day decline after consumer prices increased in China, the nation’s biggest trading partner. The Aussie added 0.2 percent to 89.96 U.S. cents, extending its advance this week to 0.4 percent, the third-straight period of gains.

The pound gained 0.1 percent to $1.6683 early London time, having rallied 1.7 percent this week, the biggest advance since the period ended June 7th. The currency climbed to $1.6673 yesterday, the strongest since May 2011. The U.K. currency dropped 0.1 percent to 82.21 pence per euro.

Sterling has appreciated 12 percent in the past year, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, amid speculation an improving economy will bring forward interest-rate increases. The euro rose 5.9 percent and the dollar gained 3 percent. The pound headed for its biggest weekly gain versus the dollar since June before a government report that economists said will show construction output rose, adding to signs the recovery is gaining pace.

Bonds briefing

The benchmark 10-year yield was little changed at 2.74 percent early in London. The price of the 2.75 percent note maturing in February 2024 was 100 3/32. Treasury market volatility fell to the lowest level in almost nine months after the U.S. Congress approved a 13-month suspension in the federal borrowing limit.


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