The European trading time started with disappointing data from France, Spain and Germany, where the consumer spending, flash CPI and unemployment change have showed worse than expected results. The French economic growth slowed more than expected at the start of the year. According to INSEE statistics agency, the economy grew 0.3% in the first 3 months and slower business investments and exports due to a stronger euro are to blame for a weaker economy in the first quarter. The French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire commented “I think growth is solid in Europe and sustainable but we all know there are some clouds on the horizon”.
The German unemployment numbers came with a lower change than expected, with -7K, as opposed to expected -15k. However, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3%, showing evidence of a strong labor market. As per the Chief Economist at ING, Carsten Brzeski, the unemployment report was the weakest April improvement in the labor market since 2012, however the nominal wages should continue to increase at higher rates than the rest of the Eurozone, but the recent wage settlements are still moderate as opposed to the economic situation.
Regarding the UK, the GDP reading was the weakest in 5 years, showing a severe slowdown of the economy in the first quarter. The ONS report has showed that the GDO expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, below the forecasted growth of 0.3%. It has been noted however, that the snow has an impact on the economy, in some retail areas and has greatly impacted the construction. The publication is expected to lower the chances of a May rate hike in the next meeting of BoE.
In addition, the US GDP grew by 2.3%, more than the 2.0% expected, however it was down from the 2.9% in the previous quarter. The drop in real consumer spending to 1.1% from the prior 4.0% had an effect on the slowdown. Nevertheless, analysts believe that these readings will not have a high impact on FED’s plans for gradual tightening taking into consideration the Trump administration tax cuts expected over the following months.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR EVENTS FOR APRIL 30th
EUR German Retail Sales m/m
EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
CHF KOF Economic Barometer
CAD RMPI m/m
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
USD Personal Spending m/m
USD Chicago PMI
USD Pending Home Sales m/m
