Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 06 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

2013-02-06 06:11 GMT

Hollande: The Eurozone crisis is now largely behind us

Eurozone political group leaders, together with French President François Hollande and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso gathered at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday to discuss the future of the European Union and the Eurozone, the economic crisis and the EU budget for 2014 to 2020. President Hollande spoke about the necessity of creating an exchange rate policy for the Eurozone in order to prevent “irrational movements” of the single currency. He warned that otherwise the euro area might be “subjected to an exchange rate that does not match the true state of its economy." Hollande also said that the Eurozone debt crisis has been largely overcome, but that nevertheless the Member States should do their utmost to bring down the excessively elevated unemployment in the area. He also pointed out the dangers connected with too much austerity: "The threat we face now is no longer the mistrust of the markets but that of the people."

For the London session ahead there will only be UK Halifax HPI data at 08:00 GMT before BoE meeting tomorrow, and crude oil inventories at 15:30 GMT coming from the US. Since year started, Cable has lost -3.5% in value against the USD. Since mid January, Pound is weakest currency among majors, only above the Yen, while against Euro, EUR/GBP is back again to recent highs area, last at 0.8674, near 15-month highs level.

Forex Economic Calendar

2013-02-06 11:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan)
2013-02-06 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. NZ Unemployment Rate (Q4)
2013-02-06 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Dec)

Forex News

2013-02-06 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD quiet above fresh 5-month lows 1.5630
2013-02-06 03:48 GMT | EUR/USD inside its thin trading range 1.3572/96
2013-02-06 02:27 GMT | USD/JPY has a final capitulation feel to it now – RBS
2013-02-06 01:27 GMT | AUD/NZD prints fresh 29-month lows on poor Aus retail sales data

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD

HIGH: 1.35959 | LOW: 1.35609 | BID: 1.35631 | ASK: 1.35637 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08:03:04

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: An hourly chart retracement development continues to pressure the pair towards to next resistance level at 1.3599 (R1). Break above it is required to open way towards to next targets at 1.3619 (R2) and 1.3638 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3555 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3) in case of positive retest here.

Resistance Levels: 1.3599, 1.3619, 1.3638
Support Levels: 1.3555, 1.3536, 1.3517

GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56656 | LOW: 1.56502 | BID: 1.56525 | ASK: 1.56536 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 08:03:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear downtrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Possibility of correction is seen above the high of the day at 1.5668 (R1). Only clearance here would open route towards to next recovery targets at 1.5683 (R2) and 1.5699 (R3). Downwards scenario: It is undeniable that further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the next support level at 1.5642 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5627 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5611 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5668, 1.5683, 1.5699
Support Levels: 1.5642, 1.5627, 1.5611

USDJPY

HIGH: 94.055 | LOW: 93.455 | BID: 93.783 | ASK: 93.788 | CHANGE: 0.16% | TIME: 08:03:06

OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Instrument showed excessive strength yesterday and we expect some stabilization ahead. However appreciation above the next resistance at 94.06 (R1) might provide a catalyst for profit taking And expose intraday targets 94.35 (R2) and 94.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: Important support level locates right at 93.54 (S1). Successful retest here would open route towards to next target at 93.24 (S2) and any further decline would then be limited to final support for today at 92.95 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.35, 94.63
Support Levels: 93.54, 93.24, 92.95

Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.