Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 19 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
2013-02-19 06:23 GMT
Draghi: Exchange rate is not a policy target
ECB head Mario Draghi visited the European Parliament on Monday to take part in two hearings before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, one on the central bank’s monetary policy and the second on systemic risk. He assured that the exchange rate is not the central bank’s policy target, but that it is important for the evaluation of price stability and growth. This way Mario Draghi referred to the G20 meeting held last weekend, which focused on the issue of currency manipulation and during which the participating nations pledged to refrain from resorting to competitive currency devaluation.
He also said that Europe "entered 2013 in a more stable financial environment than in recent years" but at the same time he warned that the risks to the European economy were still tilted to the downside. He listed the weakening of exports, the failure to timely implement structural reforms by EU governments and geopolitical issues as the three main threats. Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB’s monetary policy stance would remain accommodative.-FXstreet.com
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Feb)
2013-02-19 17:15 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
2013-02-19 23:00 GMT | Australia. CB Leading Indicator (Dec)
2013-02-19 23:50 GMT | Japan. Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Jan)
Forex News
2013-02-19 05:42 GMT | GBP/USD unable to close weekly opening gap below 1.55
2013-02-19 05:26 GMT | Yen recovers as Japan rhetoric eases
2013-02-19 04:48 GMT | Can the Euro suffer a butterfly-like effect?
2013-02-19 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD ready for a tactical rally towards 1.2470 – ANZ
| AUDUSD | NZDUSD | USDCHF | USDCAD | GBPJPY | EURCHF | GOLD | SILVER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03294/307 | 0.84403/420 | 0.92315/331 | 1.01051/059 | 144.888/909 | 1.23268/286 | 1613.77/.05 | 30.04/.06 |
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EURUSD
HIGH: 1.33648 | LOW: 1.33385 | BID: 1.33511 | ASK: 1.33517 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08:01:55 
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.3366 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the consolidation formation after its initial decline on the longer term perspective. Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3336 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3320 (S2) and 1.3302 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3366, 1.3384, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3336, 1.3320, 1.3302
GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.54797 | LOW: 1.54608 | BID: 1.54737 | ASK: 1.54748 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08:01:56 
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument trades under the descending channel formation, though market recovery is possible above the next resistance level at 1.5487 (R1). Break here is required for further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5536 (R3). Downwards scenario: Hourly indicators show negative readings, as both moving averages still pointing down. Immediate focus comes on the next support level at 1.5453 (S1). Any penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5428 (S2) and 1.5404 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5487, 1.5512, 1.5536
Support Levels: 1.5453, 1.5428, 1.5404
USDJPY
HIGH: 93.955 | LOW: 93.564 | BID: 93.626 | ASK: 93.630 | CHANGE: -0.35% | TIME: 08:01:57 
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Currently USDJPY is losing -0.35% however medium-term bias remains positive. Next on tap is resistance level at 93.76 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to the next target at 93.92 (R2). Final immediate resistance is seen at 94.08 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price regress below the support level at 93.55 (S1) the instrument has an increased likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 93.40 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to 93.25 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.76, 93.92, 94.08
Support Levels: 93.55, 93.40, 93.25
Prepared/Published By FXCC Forex Trading Blog.
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