Forex Technical & Market Analysis: April 18 2013

Apr 18 • Market Analysis • 4038 Views • 4 Comments on Forex Technical & Market Analysis: April 18 2013

2013-04-18 05:50 GMT

Weidmann opens the door to an ECB rate cut and foresees a lost decade in Europe

Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank’s president, has affirmed that the European Central Bank could cut its interest rates if economic data continues worsening, according to an interview published by WSJ. Market has been speculating about the possibilities of the ECB cutting rates and now with inflation below the 2.0% it seems more than likely in May or June. However, Weidmann said the ECB “might adjust in response to new information," but he doesn’t “think that the monetary policy stance is the key issue."

"A point that I think is important to make, perhaps less for my central bank colleagues than for finance ministers,” Weidmann pointed, “is that the medication monetary policy makers administer only cures the symptoms and that it comes with side-effects and risks." In Weidmann's words, the important thing is the development of the reforms at the national and European level. The Bundesbank president also stated that the European recovery will take as much as a decade. The opinion is contrary to other European leaders who said that the worst of the crisis is over. "Overcoming the crisis and the crisis effects will remain a challenge over the next decade,” Weidmann



G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

2013-04-18 08:30 GMT

UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)

2013-04-18 12:30 GMT

USA. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 13)

2013-04-18 14:00 GMT

USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)


2013-04-18 05:58 GMT

EUR/USD flat-lining around 1.3040/45

2013-04-18 03:58 GMT

BoC unlikely to hike rates until H2 2014 – Nomura

2013-04-18 03:17 GMT

Australia activity will soften into the June quarter – NAB

2013-04-18 01:59 GMT

China house prices continue to rise

Forex Technical Analysis  EURUSD

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price consolidates after the initial downtrend development yesterday. Price appreciation is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3061 (R1). Break here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.3081 (R2) and 1.3102 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, technically important supportive structure lies at 1.3001 (S1). If the price manages to overcome it, we would suggest next initial targets at 1.2979 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3081, 1.3102

Support Levels: 1.3001, 1.2979, 1.2957

Forex Technical Analysis  GBPUSD

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.5270 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.5287 (R2) and 1.5304 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5216 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5199 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5182 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5270, 1.5287, 1.5304

Support Levels: 1.5216, 1.5199, 1.5182

Forex Technical Analysis  USDJPYUpwards scenario: Next visible fractal level locates at 98.44 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend formation. In such case, resistances at 98.70 (R2) and 98.96 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.81 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 97.56 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 97.29 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 98.44, 98.70, 98.96

Support Levels: 97.81, 97.56, 97.29

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