WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 9/10-13/10|Could the FOMC minutes reveal the timing of the next interest rate rise and the velocity of the Fed’s intended quantitative tightening?
This coming week has a wide variety of calendar news to keep us occupied and on alert. The highlights and the highest impact events, will include the FOMC minutes, concerning the discussions held during their September meeting, the minutes will be published on Wednesday. There’s a raft of monetary data on the U.K. published on Tuesday, as well as official ONS metrics on: construction, manufacturing and production. Thursday witnesses the ECB’s Draghi and the Fed’s Brainard meeting for a monetary policy committee event. There’s also a publication delivered by the BoE on U.K. bank liabilities and credit controls, arguably a stress test by any other name. Friday is a busy day for USA data, with the: latest inflation data published, advanced retail sales and the latest university of Michigan consumer survey revealed.
Monday’s economic calendar events begins shortly after Chinese data concerning foreign investment into China (expected to maintain growth of 9.1% YoY) and the data on China’s reserves, are released late on Sunday evening. Early Monday morning China’s Caixan composite and services PMIs are released. An Australian central bank official gives a speech in Hong Kong, before the latest foreign reserves figure for Australia are revealed. New Zealand’s September house sales data will be carefully monitored, given that August witnessed a sharp fall of -20% YoY. As attention shifts to the European markets’ open, Germany’s YoY industrial production figure will be revealed, currently running at 4%, analysts will be expecting this figure to be maintained. The weekly sight deposits detail from the Swiss central bank will be declared, a figure that can impact on the value of the Swiss franc. The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence reading for September completes the calendar data for Europe. On Monday evening focus returns to Australasian figures; New Zealand’s credit card spending and an Australian consumer confidence reading is published. Finally Japan’s trade balance figure is revealed, expected to improve from the ¥566.6b registered in July.
On Tuesday morning we receive a raft of detail from China, including the latest new loans granted in yuan for September. Japan’s ECO watchers surveys are published, as are bond purchase results and the latest bankruptcy figures. Australia’s NAB business confidence and conditions detail is also revealed. As Europe opens for business, Germany’s import and export figures are declared, thereafter a significant series of ONS figures relating to the U.K. economy are released, the most prominent of which are the manufacturing and public borrowing figures. The U.K. NIESR release an estimate for the UK’s GDP growth. Housing starts and building permits for Canada are the only significant events for North America on Tuesday. Westpac consumer confidence readings for Australia and Japan’s machine orders data, closes off Tuesday’s data releases.
Wednesday continues with Japan’s machine tool orders, combined with Tuesday’s machine orders, both figures provide an insight into Japan’s future manufacturing and production performance. Significant USA data concerns the weekly mortgage applications, JOLTS job openings and then the Fed’s Mr. Evans speaks on the USA’s monetary policy and the economy. The FOMC minutes, relating to the meeting held on September 20th, will be closely observed when published. Late evening the latest RICS U.K. house price balance is published, as is specific Japanese bank lending data.
Thursday’s key calendar events begins with The USA’s monthly budget statement, in the modern era it’s always in deficit and analysts will be looking for any signs of significant deterioration beyond the -$107.7b registered in August. Australasian data contains; Australian home loans and other credit detail and New Zealand’s consumer confidence readings. Japan’s tertiary index is published, before attention then turns to Europe markets opening, with the first calendar event of note being the U.K. BoE’s credit and banking liabilities surveys. The latest Eurozone industrial production figures will be published, before investors’ attention turns to a busy session for North American data. Canada reveals figures on house price rises, both monthly and annualised. The USA provides various PPI data and the traditional weekly job claims and continuing claims numbers. The Fed’s Brainard and the ECBs Draghi get together to deliver their thoughts whilst appearing on a monetary policy committee. Late evening U.K. time, New Zealand’s latest performance manufacturing index will be published, thereafter a raft of Japanese data concerning: buying foreign bonds, stocks and the money supply is revealed.
Friday starts with Chinese data on: exports, imports and the trade balance. European calendar news begins with Germany’s wholesale prices and then Germany’s CPI figure is revealed, expected to come in close to the current 1.8% YoY level. Before U.S. markets open a series of USA inflation related data is published, the key CPI measure is expected to rise to 2.2% YoY and up 0.5% in September, whilst weekly wage inflation (YoY) is predicted to rise above the current 0.9% growth figure. Advanced retail sales in the USA are forecast to recover to 1.1% growth in September, from the shock -0.2% fall in August. The university of Michigan publishes its latest consumer confidence reading, shortly after the latest USA business inventories figure is delivered, expected to rebound to 0.4% growth in August, from the 0.2% figure recorded in July.
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