WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 4/9-8/9 |Interest rate decisions from the central banks of: Australia, Europe and Canada, are the outstanding high impact calendar events during the upcoming week
Australia’s GDP and the RBA’s interest rate decision will be carefully monitored this week, as will the Swiss GDP number. Various PMIs for: Europe, the Eurozone, Japan, China and the USA will provide leading indicators of where many sectors are headed. The bank of Canada’s interest rate decision and the unemployment rate in the country will be closely observed, whilst the ECB’s interest rate decision and accompanying narrative will be watched carefully, given Mario Draghi’s hawkish comments at the recent Jackson Hole symposium. This short list provides the highlights of an extremely active week for economic calendar events, for more detail, please continue reading.
The week begins on Monday with the Australian central bank governor Mr Lowe delivering his comments at the RBA board dinner. Analysts and investors will be looking for clues as to where forward guidance, in relation to interest rate developments, could take the economy. There’s a raft of Australian and New Zealand data published shortly after; New Zealand’s dairy average winning auction prices and the auction price of milk powder, a highly significant export product from N.Z. Inflation figures (unofficial) for Aus are also published by TD securities. As Europe opens the U.K. receives its latest Markit construction PMI, forecast to improve on the 51.9 printed in July. Eurozone soft data, in the form of a Sentix investor confidence reading and producer prices monthly and annually are published. Late evening PMIs for Australian services and composite are published, as is the performance of service index.
Tuesday starts with Japan’s services and composite PMIs from Nikkei, Australian current account balance and Q2 data on net exports is also published. China’s Caixan composite and services PMIs for August are published, later in early morning (4:30am GMT time) we receive notification of the RBA’s latest decision on Australian interest rates, forecast to remain unchanged at 1.5%. Before European markets open we’ll receive the figures on Swiss GDP for the second quarter and YoY, the latest CPI figure for the Swiss economy will also be published. A range of Markit PMIs are published for: Germany, France and Italy, as are the Eurozone services and composite PMIs, the UK’s services and composite PMIs are also published. From the Eurozone we also learn the latest GDP figure, forecast to remain unchanged at 2.2% annualised growth. Once attention turns to the USA we learn the latest Markit composite PMI, factory orders, and durable goods orders.
On Wednesday Japan’s real cash and labour cash earnings begins the economic calendar news for the week, then we move on to Australian GDP both for Q2 and annualised with the YoY figure forecast to remain unchanged at 1.7% growth. Before European markets open, Germany’s factory orders, both MoM and YoY are published, thereafter the Markit PMI for Germany’s construction is revealed, shortly after Germany, France’s and the Eurozone’s retail PMIs are printed. As attention shifts to the USA, the mortgage applications up to September 1st are revealed, as is the USA’s latest trade balance figure, forecast to rise to -$44b for the month of July and the ISM services/non manufacturing PMI. The stand out calendar event of the day is Canada’s central bank interest rate decision; the prediction is for no change on the current 0.75% rate. The Fed’s “beige book” is published; which is a commonly used name for the Fed report called the; “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve District”. It is published eight times a year and before each FOMC meeting.
Thursday begins with the trade balance from Australia, then we move on to Japan’s leading index and the coincident index. Germany’s latest industrial production data is revealed before markets open, as is the UK’s house price inflation data, according to the Halifax bank. Focus the turns to the key event of the day; the ECB’s latest interest rate/s decision and the asset purchase rate decision. Both key metrics are predicted to remain unchanged, the rate at zero percent and the asset purchase programme at €60b per month. As we turn our attention to North America Canada’s latest building permits for July are announced, as are the USA’s latest unemployment claims data and continual claims. The latest crude oil inventories for the USA may take on extra significance due to the tropical storm which hit the Texas offshore and onshore operations. Late evening, amongst a raft of Japanese data, Japan’s latest GDP figures are revealed; the expectation is for the current rate of 4.0% annualised to be maintained.
Friday witnesses the publication of a raft of data concerning the Chinese economy, most notably the: exports, imports and trade balance. The Japanese watchers survey (both current and outlook), are published, as are Japan’s latest bankruptcy details. European data begins with the Swiss unemployment rate, the anticipation is for the 3% level to remain unchanged, we receive the latest current account, trade balance, export and import figures from Germany, with only moderate change anticipated. The U.K.’s official stats body the ONS, will reveal its latest calculations on the country’s: construction, manufacturing and industrial production, together with various trade balance figures, whilst the BoE/TNS will deliver its latest inflation figure prediction and the NIESR will state its forecast/estimate for the UK’s August GDP, expected to be 0.2% for the Q3 (quarter three) of 2017. Canada produces key employment/unemployment data on Friday, most notably the unemployment rate, which is forecast to stay at a rate of circa 6.3%. From the USA we’ll learn the latest Baker Hughes rig count which will be carefully monitored as a consequence of the tropical storm hitting Texas, the key area for offshore energy production.
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