The RBA and BoE announce interest rate decisions, Markit PMIs and ISM data feature prominently, NFP jobs data released

Jul 31 • Morning Roll Call • 1667 Views • Comments Off on The RBA and BoE announce interest rate decisions, Markit PMIs and ISM data feature prominently, NFP jobs data released

Sunday evening we’ll learn the building permits figure from New Zealand and the latest (provisional) industrial production figures from Japan. YoY production in Japan is forecast to fall to 4.8% in June, from 6.5% in May. The shock -3.6% monthly contraction recorded in May is predicted to reverse back to a healthy growth figure of 1.5% in June.

Monday witnesses a raft of Australian and New Zealand data reported early morning, several releases are listed as medium impact events including: dairy exports metrics from NZ (a huge addition to its export driven economy), Aus new home sales, the TD Securities inflation figure and private sector credit in Aus, expected to rise by 5.2% YoY, up from 5% in the previous month. China’s July manufacturing PMI is published; forecast to come in at 51.5 in July, falling from 51.7.

As focus turns to Europe Germany’s retail figures will come under scrutiny; forecast in at 2.7% YoY growth in June. Various credit metrics relating to the UK’s economy will then be published; consumer credit is forecast to shrink to £1.5b growth in June, whilst both loans and mortgages secured on properties, are scheduled to fall.

Looking at the Eurozone in isolation, unemployment is expected to fall to 9.2% from 9.3%, whilst the YoY CPI figure for July is predicted to remain unchanged, at 1.1%. In the New York session July’s Chicago purchasing manager reading is published, as is the pending home sales metric and the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing reading.

Tuesday the Caixan manufacturing PMI is published; expected to remain unchanged at 50.4, just above the contraction/separation line of 50. Australia’s central bank the RBA announces the interest rate decision, predicted to remain at 1.5%. YoY U.K. house prices are expected to fall to 2.7%. German unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 5.7%, whilst Eurozone GDP is predicted to rise to 2.1% YoY, from 1.9% in Q1 2017. There are several PMIs published on Tuesday, the UK’s manufacturing will be closely watched, forecast to come in at 54.5 in July, from 54.3 in June, a rise would support the view that manufacturing has not suffered due to the UK’s imminent Brexit.

The various USA: spending, consumption and income inflation data is published, core PCE is the most prominent, forecast at 1.4% for June. Various Markit and ISM metrics for the USA are released, the most prominent are the ISM manufacturing (predicted to fall to 56.4) and employment (to remain unchanged at 57.2). New Zealand’s unemployment rate ends the high impact news events of the day, forecast to fall to 4.8%.

Wednesday begins with Australian building approvals, YoY June the expectation is for a fall to -11.0%, an improvement from the fall of -19.7% recorded in May. The BOJ official Funo will be giving a speech in Sapporo, a few hours later the Japanese consumer confidence figure is published. Swiss retail data is published, an improvement from the -0.3% fall in May is sought. The UK’s construction PMI is forecast to fall to 54, from 54.8. As attention turns to the USA, mortgage applications data will be published, as will the ADP employment change figure for July, which is expected to improve considerably to 190k in July, from 158k in June. The various DOE (department of energy) inventories are reported, the forecast for oil levels will be closely monitored, given the recent rise in WTI price.

Thursday sees many PMIs released for: Japan, China, Europe and the USA. Japan’s service and composite PMIs are released, and China Caixan service and composite PMIs. Australia’s trade balance is forecast to shrink to $1800m, from $2471 in May. Many European PMIs are published, together with the ECB’s Economic Bulletin. For the U.K. Markit also publishes services PMI, forecast to improve to 53.6, with the composite predicted to remain unchanged at 53.8. The UK’s BoE announces its base interest rate decision, forecast to stay at 0.25%, with the asset purchase scheme also expected to remain unchanged. The bank will also publish its inflation report shortly after the announcement. Retail sales for the Eurozone are expected to fall modestly, to 2.5% YoY growth.

Friday begins with Japan’s labour cash earnings YoY for June, expected to come in at 0.6% growth. Australian retail sales for Q2 are forecast to deliver growth of 1.2%. Shortly afterwards, the RBA delivers it monetary policy statement, coming after Tuesday’s interest rate announcement. As focus shifts to Europe, German factory orders are predicted to reveal a YoY rise, to 4.4% in June, Germany’s retail PMI is also published.

As attention turns to the USA, initial weekly jobless claims are predicted to fall to 240k, whilst continuous claims are forecast to fall to 1960k. Service PMI is predicted to remain at 54.2, the ISM services/non manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 56.9, a fall from 57.4. Factory orders are forecast to rise to 2.8% in June, from a -0.8% fall in May, whilst durable orders for June are forecast to fall to 6%, from a 6.5% increase in May.

Attention then moves to Canadian and USA calendar events; Canada’s July unemployment rate is scheduled to come in at 6.5%, no change from June. USA data centres on the July NFP data, the expectation is for a print of 180k new jobs created, a significant fall from the 222k registered in June. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall by 0.1%, to 4.3%. Hourly earnings in the USA are expected to reveal a 0.1% fall, to a 2.4% YoY increase. Finally the USA trade balance for June is anticipated to fall to $44.9b, from -$46.5b in May.

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