Australia’s RBA rate decision, Markit PMIs and the non-farm payroll publication, are this week’s key high impact events
The week begins with various Tankan surveys from Japan and the Caixan metrics from China. The Tankan surveys cover many aspects of manufacturing in Japan, and depending on the positive figures, can provide a boost to yen. Investors will also be looking towards China’s Caixan metrics to gauge the strength of the Chinese economy, with persistent fears remaining that the combined: personal, government and commercial debts being a continual drag on economic growth, that can’t be overcome. Dairy figures (its biggest export) will be produced by New Zealand on Monday, whilst YoY building approvals for Australia will also be released.
Swiss retail sales and the purchasing manager’s index will be published, which could effect the value of CHF versus its major peers, thereafter several European manufacturing Markit PMIs will be published, for France, Italy, Germany and the overall Eurozone composite PMI, which is expected to remain unchanged at 57.3. The Eurozone’s unemployment rate is predicted to remain constant at 9.3%. The UK’s Markit PMI is forecast to fall to 56.3 from 56.7, at noon the BoE’s Governor Mark Carney will provide an update on the FSB work.
From the USA various ISM metrics will be released, with the manufacturing reading expected to rise to 55, from 54.9. Construction spending in the USA for May is forecast to show a 0.2% rise.
Tuesday morning the RBA central bank of Australia releases its interest rate decision; forecast to remain unchanged at 1.5%, Australian retail sales are released previously. From the UK we receive the latest Markit construction PMI, predicted to come in down a point at 55. The UK BoE will publish its record for the meeting held on June 21st. Eurozone producer prices are forecast to fall by -0.2% in May, but remain up 3.5% YoY. From Canada we’ll receive the latest manufacturing PMI, expected to come in similar to the reading in May of 55.1.
Wednesday’s medium to high impact news events begins with China’s Caixan readings on services and the overall composite. Thereafter there’s a raft of Eurozone PMIs published for France, Italy and Germany, the key figures will be the composites for Germany and the Eurozone both expected to remain unchanged. Both the UK’s services and composite PMI are forecast to fall moderately, whilst labour costs are forecast to remain constant at 2.1%. Retail sales in the Eurozone are expected to fall to 2.3% YoY, but show improvements in May; up 0.3%.
From the USA durable goods orders are forecast to reveal a fall, similarly factory orders are predicted to fall by -0.5% in May. The minutes of the FOMC meeting held on June 14th will be revealed, with analysts quickly scanning the content for dovish, or hawkish statements.
Thursday sees Germany’s factory orders published, forecast at 4.5% YoY growth. Germany’s Markit construction PMI will also be released. Retail PMIs will be released for Germany, France and Italy. Weekly USA mortgage applications will be released, the ADP employment change, forecast to be 180k for June, would represent a significant reduction of the 253k jobs created in May. Initial jobless claims are forecast to come in at 243k. May’s trade balance for May is forecast to shrink marginally to -$46.3b.
Friday the Swiss unemployment rate is revealed, expected to fall to 3.0%. Germany’s industrial production is forecast to show a growth of 4.0% in May. Industrial production in the UK is predicted to come in at 0.2% YoY, with YoY manufacturing predicted to rise to 0.9%. Construction in the UK is expected to have risen to 1.1% in May. Various UK trade balances and the gross domestic product estimate from the UK’s NIESR, will be published, with little change expected across this full range of data.
From the USA we receive June’s NFP data, the anticipation is for a rise to 173k jobs created in June, with the overall unemployment rate forecast to remain static at 4.3%. Canada’s unemployment rate is predicted to come in unchanged at 6.6%. Hourly earnings in the USA are expected to rise by 2.6% YoY.
Monday, 3 July
US markets close early
00:50 – Japan Tankan manufacturing & non-manufacturing indices
01:30 – Japan final manufacturing PMI
02:30 – Australia building approvals
02:45 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI
09:00 – Eurozone final manufacturing PMI June, Italy unemployment
09:30 – UK manufacturing PMI
15:00 – US ISM manufacturing PMI
23:00 – New Zealand NZIER business confidence
Tuesday, 4 July
All day – US markets shut for Independence Day holiday
02:30 – Australia retail sales
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate & statement
06:00 – Bank of Japan core CPI
08:00 – Spain unemployment rate
09:30 – UK construction PMI
Wednesday, 5 July
09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI
09:30 – UK services PMI
15:00 – US factory orders
19:00 – FOMC meeting minutes
Thursday, 6 July
02:30 – Australia trade balance
08:15 – Swiss CPI inflation
12:30 – ECB monetary policy accounts
13:15 – US ADP non-farm employment change
13:30 – Canada trade balance, building permits
13:30 – US trade balance, weekly unemployment claims
15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI
16:30 – US crude oil inventories
Friday, 7 July
All day – G20 meetings kick off
08:30 – Halifax UK house price index
09:30 – UK manufacturing production
13:30 – Canada unemployment rate, employment change
13:30 – US non-farm payrolls, average earnings