NFP jobs data, European, Asian and USA PMIs, and various GDP reports, will dominate the economic calendar this week
Monday is a bank holiday in the UK and with London still occupying top spot as the number one global forex trading venue, there’s likely to be a significant fall off in the level of FX trading volume routed through the capital during the day. Traders should bear this in mind if they observe markets locked in a range, during the two prominent trading sessions. High impact economic calendar events are also thin on the ground on Monday. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi will be speaking at the European Parliament Economic Committee at 13:00pm. Thereafter, the most prominent calendar events concern Japan in late evening when the jobless rate, household expenditure and retail trade data is published.
Tuesday witnesses the latest French Q1 GDP data release, the forecast is for the YoY figure to remain unchanged at 0.8%. There is a raft of Eurozone confidence data published at 9:00am, none of it ranking as high impact. German CPI data is published, with the economists’ forecast predicting a YoY fall, from 2.0% to 1.6%. From Canada we receive the latest industrial product price for April, expected to come in at a figure similar to the 0.8% growth published in March. In the USA personal income data is revealed, expected in at 0.4% growth for April, personal spending is forecast to fall to 0.2%, from 0.3% in the previous month. The personal core consumption expenditure reading is expected to fall, from 1.6% to 1.5% in April. The Case Shiller annual, composite, house price reading is expected to come in at 5.6%, a fall from the 5.9% figure previously recorded. The USA consumer confidence reading for May is expected to come in at 120, a modest fall from the 120.3 for April.
Wednesday begins with key Chinese data, the May manufacturing PMI is forecast to come in at 51, from 51.2 in April. In Japan the latest data concerning: vehicle production, housing starts, construction orders and business confidence is published. Germany reveals its April YoY retail sales growth, expected in at 2.2%, a fall from the 2.3% growth recorded in March. German unemployment is forecast to fall to 5.7%, to 5.8% of the available workforce. In the UK net consumer credit data, mortgage approvals, and money supply data is revealed. The Eurozone unemployment rate is published, expected to come in at 9.4%. The YoY consumer price index is predicted to come in at 1.5%, a fall from the previous reading of 1.9%.
As attention then shifts to North America, Canada publishes its YoY GDP data, forecast to come in at 3% YoY. USA pending home sales data is published, the reading is expected to come in at 0.6% growth in April, up from the -0.8% figure revealed in March. The USA Fed will publish its beige book; more formally called the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, it’s a report published by the United States Federal Reserve Board eight times a year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District, through various reports.
Thursday’s medium to high impact events begin with Australia’s private capital expenditure data for Q1, expected to rise to 0.5%, from the previous quarter’s fall of -2.1%. China’s Caixan manufacturing PMI is then released, forecast to reveal a slight fall for May, from 50.3 to 50.2. Swiss gross domestic product is predicted to reveal a YoY rise to 1.3% from 0.6% in Q1 2017. Retail sales in Switzerland for April (YoY) are expected to show little change, from the 2.1% growth revealed in March. Eurozone manufacturing PMIs for Germany and a composite reading for the Eurozone will be published on Thursday, whilst Italy is expected to publish a GDP reading of 0.8% YoY and 0.2% for Q1 2017. The UK’s manufacturing PMI is forecast at 56.5, a drop from 57.3.
From the USA we receive the ADP jobs report, economists polled expect to see reports of 180k jobs created, initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 238k for the previous week. Canada’s manufacturing PMI is forecast to remain similar to the previous reading of 55.9, the USA’s is forecast to remain unchanged at 52.5. The ISM manufacturing reading for the USA is expected to fall to 54.6, from 54.8. Construction spending in the USA is expected to show improvement, with a rise from -0.2% in March to 0.5% in April. As always the weekly crude oil inventories will be closely monitored.
Friday begins with Australian new home sales and Japan’s consumer confidence index, Japan’s consumers are predicted to have improved their mood with a reading of 43.5 suggested. Attention then turns to the USA for the traditional monthly NFP data, expected to show 185k jobs created in May, versus 211k in April, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Average hours per employee are expected to remain unchanged at 34.4, with average earnings inflation rising from 2.5% to 2.6% annually.