Ilan Solot, EM Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman believes that USD/BRL may be positioned to test the March 2009 high around 2.45.
He begins by noting that Brazil May trade data will be reported Monday, with exports expected at -5% y/y and imports basically flat. He adds that external accounts have been worsening recently, not yet to alarming levels but worth keeping an eye on. Further, COPOM minutes from the May 28/29 meeting are due out Thursday, which will be followed by May IPCA inflation report on Friday, and is expected to remain steady at 6.5% y/y. He writes, “With inflation remaining at the top of the 2.5-6.5% target range, we think the tightening will continue at the next meeting July 9/10.” Additionally, he adds that the central bank finally intervened Friday with swaps as USD/BRL tested 2.15, but the effect was fleeting as the pair continues to trade near that high from Friday. He comments, “Long-term charts point to a test of the March 2009 high near 2.45, though resistance seen near 2.20. Support seen near 2.10 and then 2.00.” – FXstreet.com (Barcelona)