All eyes are on the FOMC this week, will they rise the interest rate to protect the dollar? Or keep to the plan to raise again in the last quarter of 2017?

Jul 24 • Morning Roll Call • 1306 Views • Comments Off on All eyes are on the FOMC this week, will they rise the interest rate to protect the dollar? Or keep to the plan to raise again in the last quarter of 2017?

The most prominent high impact news events this week concerns the USA’s FOMC revealing its interest rate decision, whilst Canada will reveal its latest GDP figure, as will the USA, France and the U.K. There’s a raft of Japanese data, including CPI, inflation data this week will also be released by: Australia and Germany.

On Monday the week begins with various European Markit PMIs, from France, Germany and the Eurozone. Both services and manufacturing, combined with composites, will be published. There is very little change anticipated from the previous month’s readings. In the afternoon attention turns to the Markit PMIs for the USA, once again very little change is forecast, from June’s readings. Existing home sales are published for the USA, and then late evening the BOJ publishes its minutes from its June 15-16 meeting.

Tuesday starts with various data concerning Germany; import prices are predicted to fall to 2.9% in June, from 4.1% in May. Various IFO readings for Germany will be published, with all three anticipated to fall marginally. From the USA we receive various house price reports, the expectation is for a rise of 0.5% for May. The various Case Shiller house price data has (at its core), the YoY inflation figure, forecast to come in at 5.8%. Focus stays on the USA with the conference board consumer confidence reading, predicted to fall to 116, from 118.9. Later in the evening a Bank of England official, chief economist Andy Haldene, will give a speech in London. Thereafter focus turns to New Zealand, with data on the trade balance and the YTD balance being the most prominent publications.

Wednesday starts early for high impact news events, with the publication of Australia’s Q2 CPI figure, forecast to come in at 2.2% YoY, up from 2.1%. This will be followed by the RBA’s Lowe giving a speech in Sydney, in which the subjects for discussion will presumably be inflation and the recent hold of interest rates. Attention will turn in the morning to the UK’s GDP, the shock of Q1 coming in at 0.2% is expected to be marginally alleviated by a rise to 0.3%. However, the annual GDP will then fall to 1.7% and on a projected basis (if growth comes in at 0.3%), then the projected growth for 2017 will only be 1%, one of the lowest projections of the current E.U. 28 countries. In the USA new home sales are published on Wednesday, as are crude oil and gas inventories. Then we receive the latest FOMC interest rate decision, the current rate is 1.25% and there is little anticipation for any rise beyond this level, given the two rises the Feds have made in 2017 so far.

Thursday begins with Germany’s retail sales data, a YoY fall from 4.8% to 2.7% for June is forecast. Germany’s GfK consumer confidence is expected to remain unchanged at 10.6% for August. From Australia export prices are forecast to fall to -5.5% in Q2, from 9.4% in Q1. From the USA, the June durable goods order data is published, expected to make an improvement to 3.5%, from the -0.8% previously recorded in May. Jobless claims (weekly) in the USA are predicted to come in at 237k from 240k, with continuous claims expected to fall marginally. The evening is dominated by a raft of information from Japan, the most prominent data is the annual CPI reading for June, expected to come in at 0.4%. Retail trade in Japan is forecast to show annual growth of 2.3%.

Friday’s prominent economic calendar news begins with France’s GDP, forecast to come in at 0.5% for Q2, with an annual growth rate of 1.6%. Various confidence readings for Europe are published, whilst focus will turn to Germany’s CPI figure, predicted to come in at 1.5% YoY in July, a fall from 1.6% in June. Canada’s GDP is published, expected in at 4.2% for May, a rise from 3.3% in April. The USA annual GDP figure is also published on Friday, the forecast is for a rise to 2.5%, from the 1.4% reading revealed in Q1. Various university of Michigan data are released late afternoon, the most prominent is the confidence reading, expected to come in unchanged at 93.1.

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