MORNING ROLL CALL

Jul 17 • Morning Roll Call • 189 Views • No Comments

The ECB interest rate decision, a raft of official UK data, inflation data for various countries forms this week’s highlights
Monday begins with Chinese retail sales data, which both on a YoY basis and YTD basis, is expected to remain constant; YoY 10.6% and YTD 10.3%. Industrial production at 6.5% YoY and YTD 6.8%, is also expected to remain unchanged. GDP for China is forecast to fall marginally YoY and YTD by 0.1% to 6.8%.

Once European markets open, Eurozone CPI monthly and yearly is published, YoY the figure is excepted to come in at 1.3%, down from a 1.4% reading for May.

From the USA we learn of the latest empire manufacturing data; predicted to come in at 14, a fall from 19.8. Canada’s existing home sales fell by -6.2% in May, therefore an improvement will be sought by analysts, given that HPI is such a hot topic in relation to the Canadian economy. Later in the evening New Zealand’s latest CPI metrics completes the day’s high impact news events, which is expected to come in at 1.9% YoY, a fall from the 2.2% registered in Q1 2017.

Tuesday’s medium to high impact calendar events begins with Australia’s central bank the RBA releasing its minutes from the July rate policy meeting, Japan’s latest condominium sales data will also be published, sales of which fell by -13.3% annually, when last reported for May.

Attention then moves to Europe; when the ECB published its banking survey, thereafter a raft of inflation data is published by the UK’s ONS, many of the United Kingdom’s individual metrics are forecast to remain unchanged YoY: CPIH at 2.9%, CPI at 2.9%, RPI at 3.7%, input price inflation is forecast to improve sharply to 9.3% from circa 19%, a level achieved when the pound was at its recent weakest level of circa 1.20 versus the U.S. dollar. House price inflation in the U.K. is forecast to fall to 3% YoY in May, from 5.6% in April. The German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment surveys will be published, Germany’s is forecast to slip to 18, from 18.6 for July.

From the USA import prices excluding petroleum goods), is forecast to come in at 0.1% for June, export prices are also predicted to have risen by 0.1%. The USA NAHB house price index is forecast to remain unchanged at 67.

Wednesday witnesses construction output published for the Eurozone, expected to remain constant at circa 3.2% growth YoY. Attention then switches to the USA for the latest weekly mortgage approval numbers; forecast to come in ahead of the -7.4% registered last week for the week ending July 7th. Housing starts MOM are predicted to have improved to 5.8% in June, from the -5.5% reading recorded in May. Building permits are also expected to improve to 3% in June, from -4.9% in May. The various USA weekly oil and gas inventories will be revealed, as always analysts will monitor this energy inventory data closely, given the rapid changes and volatility in the oil and gas market price over recent weeks.

Thursday’s major impact events begin with a raft of Japanese data, published by the central bank the BOJ. Principally the BOJ outlook report and the monetary policy statement. Japan’s all industry activity index is forecast to fall to -0.8% in May, from 2.1% in April. Staying in the Southern Hemisphere, Australian employment and unemployment data will be published on Thursday, unemployment is forecast to creep up by 0.1%, to 5.6%. The participation rate is forecast to remain unchanged, at 64.9%.

As attention turns to Europe the UK’s retail sales are published, expected to show a significant MoM rise to 0.5% in June, from the -1.6% fall recorded for May. Various deficit and current account figures are published for the Eurozone before the ECB announces its latest interest rate decision, the prediction from the economists polled, is for no change from the current zero rate. The asset purchase programme is also forecast to remain unchanged at €60b a year. July’s consumer confidence is predicted to improve to -1.1%.

From the USA weekly unemployment claims are expected to come in at 245k, with continuing claims at 1950k. The Philly Fed reading is forecast to fall to 23.7, from 27.6.

Friday ends the week with a raft of U.K. data, beginning with government borrowing figures and the public sector borrowing requirement. Most of these key readings are forecast to reveal modest improvements for the month of June. Canadian inflation data closes the week off; CPI forecast to deliver a reading of 1.1% YoY in June, with retail sales forecast to improve by 0.4% MoM for May.

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