Kukusiphi isikhathi lapho ukuphathwa kwe-USA Fed kanye ne-US kungabheka ukuthi i-USD iphansi kakhulu?
Ngenkathi abaphathi bakaTrump besanda kudideka futhi baziphikisa maqondana nokufaneleka kwenani eliphansi noma eliphakeme le-USD, abahlaziyi abaningi kanye nosomnotho abazosondela ekuphathweni kwe-USA, kanye namalungu ekomidi le-FOMC nethimba labo labeluleki, bazokwazi ukuthi I-USA kufanele ithole ibhalansi yedola uma iqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu. Ngaphandle kokungabaza izimakethe zethu ze-forex, imakethe enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, ithola ileveli yayo yangempela ngokusekelwe kuwo wonke umsebenzi nolwazi olutholakalayo. Lokhu kusiza (okufanele kube) ukuhwebelana nomnotho emhlabeni wonke okungenazimpikiswano okwenzekayo. Ingxenye yesinxephezelo esiqondile sikahulumeni kanye nokukhokhwa okungaqondile kwebhange elikhulu, ukukhuthaza izimo zemvelo enokuzwana ukuvumela ibhizinisi, kuwo wonke amazinga, ukuba achume. Izikhulu eziningi ezibambe iqhaza ekuzameni ukudala izimo ezinjalo ziyazi ukuthi ukugcina ibhalansi enjalo, kuwumsebenzi onzima wonjiniyela.
Kusolwe ukuthengiswa kwemakethe yamasheya muva nje e-USA ngokukhula kwemisebenzi ye-NFP nokwenyuka kwamaholo kushaya okulindelekile. Kodwa-ke, ukwehlukanisa lesi sizathu esisodwa esibandakanya ukuchuma kwemisebenzi ngokuwa okunjalo akunangqondo futhi kuyize. Idola eliphansi, elenza ukuthi intengo yokungenisa impahla inyuke kakhulu, ibangele ukwehla kwamandla emali, liphinde livimbele amandla okuvuselelwa kokukhiqiza kukaTrump afisa ukulenza, ngaphandle kokuthi i-USA ihlose ukusebenzisa izinto zayo zokukhiqiza kuphela nezokukhiqiza. Ukukhuphuka kwamanani wokungenisa, ezweni elinjalo elincike kakhulu emnothweni wezinsizakalo nakubathengi, kudale ukwenyuka okwenyuka kwamanani emali (2.9%) kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali kwe-CPI (2.1%). Abahlaziyi babala ngokushesha ukuthi ukuthambekela kokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kuphezulu; izimpahla ezibiza kakhulu ngenxa yedola elibuthakathaka, kuholela kulabo abahola imali abafuna imali ethe xaxa yomsebenzi wabo.
Umkhankaso wokhetho wamaRiphabhulikhi usukhohliwe, 'kwenza iMelika ibe nkulu futhi' ngomqondo wokuvuselela izigidi zemisebenzi kanye nezimali, ukuvula izimayini zamalahle ezingasasetshenzisiwe, ukuvuselela imboni yensimbi nezimoto njll, ngenkathi kusetshenziswa ingqalasizinda yezimali ayikaze ibonwe kusukela esikhathini sokuDangala Okukhulu, manje sekuyinkumbulo ekude. Amaqiniso uTrump umbono, ithemba elingamanga neqiniso. Ngaphandle kokuthi i-FOMC inyuse amanani kakhulu kulo lonke u-2018 khona-ke ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzokhuphuka, amaholo azodinga ukukhuphuka futhi isimo sedola sizokwehla.
Kumele kube khona imigqa ethile ebomvu i-FOMC okufanele idwebe futhi abaphathi base-USA kumele bazi ngayo maqondana nenani ledola, kungaba yi-USD / JPY ngo-100.00, i-EUR / USD ngo-1.2500 kanye ne-GPB / USD ngo-1.5000 no-USD / CNH ngo-6.0000?
Yize lawa mazinga engavumelani futhi engenakwenzeka ukuhlangana ngokulungiswa okuphelele, ngenxa yokuhlangana okuhlukahlukene okuqhubekayo, kungaba yizindawo zombili, abaphathi be-USA ngokwenqubomgomo yabo yezimali kanye ne-FOMC / Fed ngokwenqubomgomo yezimali, sibheka njengamazinga okuthi uma kuhlangatshezwana nawo, kuthathwe izinyathelo ezinqala, ukuvikela idola laseMelika nokuvikela ukwehla kwamandla emali ukuthi kukhuphuke kuye emazingeni azodala ukulimala komnotho kwesikhathi eside.
Njengabahwebi be-Forex singavamise ukuba necala lokulahlekelwa isithombe esikhulu maqondana nezimakethe zethu futhi ikakhulukazi amanani wesikhathi eside wezimali ezithile.
Abathengisi abaningi bezinga lesikhungo bazotshala imali ngokuya ngalokhu:
1. ukubonwa kobuchwepheshe kwamashadi masonto onke noma noma ngenyanga,
2. izindaba eziyisisekelo ezikhona nombiko we-COT;
3. ukuzibophezela kwamasonto onke kombiko wabathengisi, oveza izikhundla ezithathwe abatshalizimali bezinga lesikhungo, ama-hedge funds, amabhange nabanye abatshali zimali abenza imali enkulu.
Kungaleso sikhathi kuphela lapho sikala khona lapho singakwazi ukukala isithombe sangempela sokuhamba kwe-pair of currency, esikhathini eside.
« Njengoba i-UK Bank yaseNgilandi imemezela isinqumo sezinga lesisekelo, yini esingayilindela ku-GBP ku-2018? Ngabe uLwesihlanu olwedlule luzobuyela emuva ezimakethe zezimali eziqhubekayo luzoqhubeka ekuqaleni kwaleli sonto futhi i-selloff izoba namuphi umthelela ku-USD? »
