Ngabe uLwesihlanu olwedlule luzobuyela emuva ezimakethe zezimali eziqhubekayo luzoqhubeka ekuqaleni kwaleli sonto futhi i-selloff izoba namuphi umthelela ku-USD?
Isonto elibi kakhulu cishe eminyakeni emibili yezimakethe zezimali zase-USA lavalwa ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule njengoba izinkomba zaqeda endaweni enhle; I-DJIA inyuke ngo-1.39%, i-SPX inyuke ngo-1.49% futhi i-NASDAQ inyuke ngo-1.44%. Ama-indices manje asephumile endaweni yokulungiswa (ebizwa ngokuthi iphansi ngo-10% kusuka esiqongweni sakamuva), kepha asabhalisa unyaka nonyaka ukuwa, i-DJIA phansi -2.14% ne-SPX phansi -2.04%. Isimo phakathi kwabatshalizimali sibonakala sinovalo, okungamangalisi ukuthi kunikezwe ukuthi inkomba enkulu ikhuphukile isuka ku-circa 12,000 ngonyaka ka-2012, yaphakama nge-approx yakamuva. 26,600, inzuzo emangalisayo engu-121% ngo-approx. Iminyaka emi-5. Ukukhuphuka okunjalo kubangele abatshalizimali abaningi ezimakethe zase-US ukuba bangazinaki futhi babheke izimakethe zezimali njengendlela yokubheja eyodwa, ngakho-ke abanalwazi ngokuphelele futhi abakulungele ukulungiswa, noma izimakethe zebhere.
Esimweni esiphansi senani lenzalo, lapho izimbuyiselo zokonga bezingekho, kubantu abaningi abazimele izimakethe zinikeze ukuphumula nesiphephelo sokubeka imali yabo. Ngokungazelelwe babhekene nokukhetha; bayakhipha bese beya kwezinye izimpahla, noma bahlale betshaliwe? Uma begudluza izimali zabo emakethe yiziphi izimali abazitshala kuzo; izinsimbi eziyigugu, izimali, amabhondi? Noma ingabe manje badinga ukufunda ikhono eliyinkimbinkimbi lokwenza amamaki amafushane? Ikhono iningi labathengisi abalwela ukulifeza.
Ukusebenza udlule emaphephandabeni wezezimali wangempelasonto, njengoba izimakethe zivaliwe ngemuva kwaleli sonto elixakile, umbono jikelele ubonakala sengathi izimakethe zingaba sezikhathini eziningi zokuhlolwa. Kunjengokungathi isibani sesibani sikhanyiswe kungazelelwe njengoba osomnotho, abatshalizimali nabahlaziyi, abasezingeni lokuhambisa izimakethe zethu, bakubone kungazelelwe lokho; ukuphindeka kabili kwezinga lenzalo yase-US kusuka ku-0.75% kuya ku-1.5% ngo-2017 kanti i-FOMC isongela ukukhuphuka amahlandla amathathu ngo-2018 phakathi nomhlangano wayo kaDisemba 2017, ingaba nomthelela omubi kumanani ezilinganiso, naphezu kokuncishiswa kwentela kukaTrump.
Kuthatha isikhathi ukuthi ukukhohlwa okunjalo kwezimakethe kungakhohlakala, abatshalizimali, abenzi bezimakethe kanye nabashukumisi bezimakethe bazosondela ezimakethe ngendlela engenzi lutho emasontweni azayo futhi ngaleyo ndlela mhlawumbe ukulungiswa kufanele kubhekwe kahle; idale ikholi yokuvuka. Ukulindela izimakethe ukuletha imbuyiselo ngokungapheli kungubuwula, kwesinye isikhathi imithetho yezomnotho, yezibalo futhi mhlawumbe ne-physics iyathatha izintambo. Isikhathi sokubolekwa / ukubolekwa okungabizi kakhulu sesiphelile, kunemikhawulo kuphela ekukhuleni komnotho kunoma imuphi umjikelezo onikeziwe, futhi ukubuyiselwa emuva kusho ukuthi izimakethe zihlala zibuyela emuva futhi zibuyela kwesinye isigaba, ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukene.
Sizokwazi okuningi, maqondana nezinga lomonakalo abatshalizimali ezimakethe zase-USA abahlupheke ngalo engqondweni yabo, uma izimakethe zivulwa eNew York ngoMsombuluko ntambama. Mancane amathuba okuthi sikwazi ukukala isimo ngemakethe yesikhathi esizayo ngeSonto kusihlwa ekuseni ngomsombuluko ekuseni endaweni enjalo ebucayi. NgoLwesithathu izibalo zakamuva ze-CPI zase-USA zizoba ukukhishwa okubhekwe kakhulu kwe-inflation eminyakeni eminingi, kususelwa ezinsolweni zokuthi ukwesaba kwe-inflation, okubangelwe ukukhuphuka kwamaholo, kudale i-selloff. Isibopho seminyaka eyishumi seMgcinimafa sifike ku-2.88% ngoLwesihlanu, okuyiminyaka emine ephakeme.
Kunendlela eyodwa kuphela evivinyiwe yokunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali- ukukhulisa amanani enzalo kuze kukhuphuke imali yasekhaya. Uhlobo lwemali olunamandla lubanga ukwehla kwamandla emali okungenisiwe. Kodwa-ke, abaphathi be-USA kanye ne-FOMC / Fed banesenzo esinzima kakhulu sokulinganisa; bafuna ukugqugquzela ukukhiqizwa okwandayo nokuthekelisa futhi idola eliphansi lifeza le nhloso, ngokomqondo. Kepha amanani wokungenisa ayakhuphuka futhi i-USA iyachuma ngenxa yomnotho wayo othembekile othembela ku-80%, futhi lezo zinto ezikhuphuka izindleko zempahla eluhlaza nazo zizothinta abakhiqizi. Ngabe idola laseMelika liwele kakhulu ku-2017, ingabe i-FOMC idinga ukukhuphuka ngamandla futhi kungani ukwesaba kwezimakethe kusanda kulandela, njengoba ku-2.1% i-CPI yeqe ngokweqile?
Lesi sibikezelo ngesesimemezelo ngoLwesithathu sokuthi i-CPI ibuyele emuva ku-1.9% YoY, uma lesi sibikezelo sifakazela ukuthi sinembile ngakho-ke umuzwa wokukhululeka ungadala ukuthi izimali ziqale ukukhuphuka, mhlawumbe zibuyise umhlaba wazo olahlekile. Uma amanani okulingana engabuyi ngokuya ngesibalo esincishisiwe se-CPI, abahlaziyi bangaqala ukubuza ukuthi kunezinye izinto eziningi ezixhasa isizathu sokudonswa emuva, umbono othole ukwethenjwa okuningi ngezikhathi zesonto eledlule.
NgoMsombuluko wusuku olunokuthula ngezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho, ukwehla kwamandla emali eSwitzerland CPI kulindeleke ukuthi kungene ngo -0.2% ngoJanuwari no-0.8% YoY. Isitatimende sesabelomali sanyanga zonke esivela e-USA ukukhishwa kwekhalenda elilandelayo ngalolo suku; okulindelwe ukuwa okuncane ngenyanga kaJanuwari kuya ku- $ 51.0b kusuka ku- $ 51.3b.
« Kukusiphi isikhathi lapho ukuphathwa kwe-USA Fed kanye ne-US kungabheka ukuthi i-USD iphansi kakhulu? Njengoba kukhishwa isibalo sakamuva se-CPI (inflation), ingabe iBhange laseNgilandi lizobonakala lilungile ekugcineni inani lenzalo elisezingeni elingu-0.5%? »
