Njengoba i-UK Bank yaseNgilandi imemezela isinqumo sezinga lesisekelo, yini esingayilindela ku-GBP ku-2018?
Umbono wokuvumelana okuvamile owethulwe abahlaziyi bemakethe ukuthi i-sterling yalulama ngo-2017, ngemuva kokudayiswa kanzima ngenxa yevoti lokushaqeka kwereferendamu ngo-2016, kufanele ibhekisiswe. Abahlaziyi bezimali abaningi abavamile bakhomba kukhebula (GBP/USD) ukuze bafakazele ithiyori yokutakula, bangalinaki ngokuphelele iqiniso lokuthi ukukhuphuka kwephawundi uma kuqhathaniswa nedola kwakukweleta ubuthakathaka obudlulele bedola, ngokuphambene namandla edola.
Kodwa-ke, iphawundi lase-UK lalulama ngo-2017 uma liqhathaniswa neningi lontanga yalo, naphezu kwalokho ukululama kubuthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa (ngokungangabazeki) intanga yayo eyinhloko, i-euro; I-EUR/GBP isephezulu ngo-18% cishe ngo-0.89, kunaku-0.76 ngaphambi nje kwesinqumo senhlolovo. Umthelela walokhu emnothweni wase-UK akuxoxiswana ngakho ngokwanele, i-trope ejwayelekile emaphephandabeni avamile ukuthi umthelela wenhlolovo ube mubi, kuze kube manje.
Ngokushesha ngemva kwesinqumo sereferendamu, iBhange LaseNgilandi labamba umhlangano ophuthumayo lapho lamemezela khona enye i-£70b ye-QE, i-£100b yemali mboleko emabhange (ukuze kugcinwe izinga lenzalo yabathengi liphansi), i-£10b yamabhondi futhi yehlise izinga lenzalo eyisisekelo. ngesigamu, sehlele ku-0.25%. Ngomhla zi-2 kuNovemba wezi-2017 i-MPC ye-BoE yenyuse izinga eliyisisekelo labuyela ku-0.5% futhi phakathi nokuphawula okuhambisana nomhlangano ngamunye kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, akukwazanga ukuphina uma i-BoE/MPC iyi-hawkish noma i-dovish.
I-BoE isesimweni esinzima ngendlela emangalisayo, ngokungangabazeki kakhulu kune-FOMC/Fed, njengoba i-USA kungadingeki ibhekane nokuwa kweBrexit okuzayo. Akukhona nje ukuthi umbusi weBhange LaseNgilandi uMark Carney kanye nozakwabo kufanele babhekane nezinkinga ezivamile mayelana nenqubomgomo yezimali yezwe, bane-ajenda yangaphandle ababengayilindele, ngokuqinisekile uCarney wayengakulindele ngesikhathi owayenguShansela we-Exchequer. (George Osborne), wamqinisekisa ukuthi athathe lo msebenzi.
I-BoE inomthwalo wemfanelo oqondile wokulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali, iphawundi eliphansi lenza ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubize kakhulu, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kungabizi kakhulu, kanti i-UK ingumnotho ochumayo/ophilayo ngenxa yenkonzo yawo kanye nomnotho wokudayisa, ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi cishe ku-75% umnotho. Njengoba ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubiza kakhulu, abasebenzi badinga/badinga amaholo aphezulu ukuze baphile, ukwehla kwamandla emali kokudla e-UK kucishe kube ngu-4% njengoba kunjalo namanani entengo entengo ye-RPI, iphawundi elibuthakathaka libangela ukuthi amanani okuthenga akhuphuke. Kwesinye isikhathi i-BoE kufanele idlulele phambili ejikeni futhi idale izimo zephawundi eliqinile ngokusebenzisa okuwukuphela kwendlela etholakalayo, amanani enzalo aphezulu. Kodwa banenye inkinga; ngokusho kokuhlolwa kwabo kokucindezeleka kwakamuva, ukukhuphuka kokujwayelekile kwe-3% njengenani lesisekelo, kungabangela ukuwa kwe-30% kumanani entengo yempahla ethile, njengeLondon kanye nemakethe yezakhiwo eseningizimu-mpumalanga ye-England, lapho amabhange ase-UK anamakhulu ezinkulungwane zezigidigidi. ukuchayeka. Ngaphandle kokungabaza inkathi yemali eshibhile idale ibhamuza kumanani ezakhiwo zaseLondon, ukushoda akuzange kubangele amanani entengo enyuke cishe ngo-60% kusukela ngo-2010, kuyilapho amaholo ngokwemibandela yangempela ahlala engashintshi kusukela cishe. 2003 kanye nemali ekhishwa yi-BoE akumele ihlanganise ukuvikelwa kwamanani ezimpahla.
Uma i-FOMC igcina ukuzibophezela kwayo ekukhuphuleni izikhathi ezintathu ngo-2018, ithatha isilinganiso senzalo esibalulekile sibe ngu-2.75% futhi i-ECB iqinisa inqubomgomo yayo yezimali ngokuhoxisa isikhuthazo se-APP, futhi mhlawumbe ikhuphule amanani, i-BoE ingase izizwe inamandla okuthi Yiba nesineke sokulandela amanani e-UK. Kodwa-ke, uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kungazelelwe kungadingeka ukuthi bakhuphule amanani ngendlela enolaka kunozakwabo ababili abahamba phambili. Izinga lezinga eliyisisekelo elingu-2% lase-UK ngalesi sikhathi ngonyaka ozayo?
Nakuba kungase kube isibikezelo esinesibindi, ngaphambi kokuba kuqubuke izinkinga zika-2007/2008, izinga elinjalo beliyothathwa njengeliphansi ngokomlando. Uma amanani anjalo ebekwa khona-ke i-GPB izokhuphuka, ikakhulukazi uma iqhathaniswa nemali yomlingani wayo oyinhloko wohwebo, i-euro. I-BoE izokhipha isitatimende ngesinqumo sayo sezinga lenzalo ngoLwesine ngoFebhuwari 8, abathengisi bamaphawundi kufanele banake ngokukhethekile lesi sitatimende kanye nokukhululwa kwezindaba zikaMark Carney, okuqinisekile ukuthi i-BoE iphelelwa yisikhathi kanye ne-latitude ukuze bahlale behlezi. ucingo nokunethezeka.
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