Njengoko i-CPI (inflation) yamva nje ikhutshwa, ngaba iBhanki yaseNgilani iya kubonisa ukuba ilungile ekugcineni isiseko senzala kwi-0.5%?
Ngomhla we-13 kaFebruwari kwi-9.30AM i-arhente yezibalo zase-UK i-ONS, iya kupapasha amanani akutshanje okunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqoqosho lwase-UK. Amanani okunyuka kwamaxabiso aquka: iCPI, iRPI, i-core inflation, igalelo, imveliso kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu. Ngamanani aphambili e-CPI, zombini inyanga ngenyanga kunye nonyaka ngonyaka, eya kujongwa ngokusondeleyo ngabahlalutyi kunye nabatyali-mali kwaye idatha inokuvelisa ukusabela kweemarike kwiponti yase-UK ekukhululweni, ukuba uqikelelo luhlangatyeziwe.
Inyanga kwinani lokunyuka kwamaxabiso enyangeni liqikelelwa ukuba lihle liye kwi-0.6% ngoJanuwari, ukusuka kwinqanaba le-0.4% ngoDisemba. Inani lonyaka ngonyaka liqikelelwa ukuba liza kuhla liye kutsho kwi-2.9% ngoJanuwari, ukusuka kwi-3% kweyoMnga. Ukuwa kwindawo engalunganga yenyanga kaJanuwari, emele i-1% epheleleyo ukusuka kushicilelo olulungileyo lwe-0.4% ngoDisemba, kunokuthatha abatyali-mali abaninzi (abasilelayo ukuhlala phezulu kuhlahlelo oluzayo olukhutshwayo) ngokumangazayo inikwe iBhanki yaseNgilani. iinkxalabo malunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, abasasaze ngexesha lenkomfa yabo yoonondaba kutsha nje kwiveki ephelileyo.
I-BoE ichaze uloyiko olufutshane ukuya kwixesha eliphakathi lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, njengezizathu zengxelo yabo ye-hawkish enikezelwe kwiveki ephelileyo, ngexesha labo kungekho sigqibo sotshintsho ngokubhekiselele kwizinga lenzala yase-UK. UMark Carney unikezele ngesikhokelo esicebisa ukuba abatyali-mali kufuneka balungiselele umgaqo-nkqubo wezinga lenzala elibukhali kwiminyaka ezayo; ukunyuka kuya kuba phezulu kwaye ngokukhawuleza. Uyekile ukuhambisa itheyibhile yexesha, nangona kunjalo, ukuvumelana ngokubanzi kubonakale kukunyuka okuthathu kwe-0.25% ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2019, kuthatha inqanaba lesiseko ukuya kwi-1.25%. Nangona kunjalo, isilumkiso kunye nokulungiswa okungaphezulu kwayo nayiphi na ikamva elizayo, kunokuba yimpembelelo yeengxoxo zeBrexit kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezizayo, impembelelo ye-Brexit ukususela ngo-Matshi 2019 ukuya phambili kunye nokusebenza ngokubanzi koqoqosho lwase-UK ngexesha lexesha.
I-pound yase-UK yenyuka kakhulu emva kwesigqibo se-BoE yesiseko kunye nenkomfa yenkomfa elandelayo; ikhebula (GBP / USD) yenyuka kwaye i-EUR / GBP yawa. Nangona kunjalo, iinzuzo bezihlala ixesha elifutshane njengoko uloyiko lwe-Brexit lwaphinda lwavela, i-sterling ibuyele kumanqanaba okubhengezwa kwangaphambili kwe-BoE, ngokuchasene neemali zayo ezimbini eziphambili. Ukuba uqikelelo lwe-MoM lokuwa ukuya kwi--0.6% luba yinyani, okanye ukufundwa okungalunganga kufutshane neli nani kurekhodwa, ke i-BoE ibikezela kunye noloyiko malunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye noloyiko olumalunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso lunokubonakala ngathi luphambi kwexesha, njengoko loo phawundi inokuza phantsi koxinzelelo lokuthengisa, kunye abatyali-mali bafumanisa ukuba iinkxalabo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso ziye zabaxwa.
IIMETRIKSI ZOQOQOSHO EZINGUNDOQO ZOKUXHUMANA NE-UK YOKUXHAPHAZELA UKUKHUTSHWA.
• IGDP YoY 1.5%.
• I-GDP QoQ 0.5%.
Umyinge wenzala 0.5%.
• Ixabiso lentengo ngu-3.0%.
Umyinge ongenamisebenzi 4.3%.
• Ityala likarhulumente v GDP 89.3%.
• Iinkonzo PMI 53.
« Ngaba uLwesihlanu ophelileyo uya kubuyela umva kwiimarike ze-equity kuqhubeka kwangoko kule veki kwaye yintoni impembelelo eya kuba nayo i-selloff kwi-USD? Amanani e-inflation ase-US akhululwa ngolwe-Lwesithathu, ukuba i-YoY yexabiso lentengo yehlile, ke abatyali zimali zentengiso banokubuyisa ukuzithemba »
