Ngaba uLwesihlanu ophelileyo uya kubuyela umva kwiimarike ze-equity kuqhubeka kwangoko kule veki kwaye yintoni impembelelo eya kuba nayo i-selloff kwi-USD?
Eyona veki imbi kakhulu malunga neminyaka emibini kwiimarike zezabelo zaseMelika zivale ngolwesiHlanu odlulileyo njengoko i-indices igqityiwe kwindawo entle; I-DJIA inyuke nge-1.39%, i-SPX inyuke nge-1.49% kunye ne-NASDAQ inyuke nge-1.44%. I-indices ngoku iphumile kwindawo yokulungiswa (ebizwa ngokuba yi-10% ukusuka kwincopho yamva nje), kodwa zisabhalisa unyaka ukuya kutsho ngokuwa, i-DJIA ihla -2.14% kunye ne-SPX phantsi -2.04%. Umoya phakathi kwabatyali-zimali ubonakala ngathi wothukile, nto leyo engothusiyo xa kujongwa ukuba isalathiso esingundoqo sinyukile ukusuka kwi-12,000 ngo-2012, ukuya kutsho kumphakamo wakutsha nje. 26,600, eyothusayo 121% inzuzo malunga. Iminyaka emi-5. Ukonyuka okunjalo kubangele abatyali-mali abaninzi kwiimarike zase-US ukuba bangakhathali kwaye bajonge kwiimarike zezabelo njengenye indlela yokubheja, ngenxa yoko abanamava ngokupheleleyo kwaye abakulungelanga ukulungiswa, okanye iimarike zeebhere.
Kwimeko yezinga eliphantsi lenzala, apho imbuyekezo kugcino ibingekho, kubantu abaninzi babucala iimarike zinike ikhefu kunye nekhusi ukubeka ulondolozo lwabo. Ngequbuliso bajamelene nokhetho; Ngaba bakhupha imali baze bafudukele kwezinye ii-asethi, okanye bahlale betyala imali? Ukuba bayayisusa imali yabo kwimarike yeyiphi impahla abatyala kuyo; iintsimbi ezixabisekileyo, iimali, iibhondi? Okanye ngaba ngoku kufuneka bafunde isakhono esiphucukileyo sendlela yokumakisha amafutshane? Isakhono apho uninzi lwabarhwebi luzama ukugqibelela.
Ukusebenza ngendlela yakho kushicilelo lwezemali lwempelaveki, njengoko iimarike zivaliwe emva kweveki enesiphithiphithi, uluvo lulonke lubonakala ngathi iimarike zinokuba ngamaxesha ovavanyo ngakumbi. Kufana nokuba ibhalbhu yesibane ilayitwe ngesiquphe njengoko oosoqoqosho, abatyali-mali kunye nabahlalutyi, kwinqanaba lokuhambisa iimarike zethu, baye baqaphela ngokukhawuleza ukuba; Ukuphindaphinda kwamazinga enzala e-US ukusuka kwi-0.75% ukuya kwi-1.5% kwi-2017 kunye ne-FOMC esongela ukuphakamisa kathathu kwi-2018 ngexesha lentlanganiso yabo kaDisemba 2017, ingaba nefuthe elibi kwimilinganiselo ye-equity, nangona i-Trump yerhafu iyancipha.
Kuthatha ixesha ukuba izothuso zemarike ezinjalo zilityalwe, abatyali-zimali, abenzi beemarike kunye nabashukumisi beemarike baya kusondela kwiimarike ngendlela enokucutha ngakumbi kwiiveki ezizayo kwaye ngaloo ndlela mhlawumbi ulungiso kufuneka lujongwe ngokufanelekileyo; yenziwe umnxeba wokuvuka. Ukulindela ukuba iimarike zinike imbuyekezo ngokungenasiphelo bubudenge, kwinqanaba elithile imithetho yezoqoqosho, imathematika kunye mhlawumbi nefiziksi ithatha indawo. Ixesha lokuboleka / ukuboleka okuxabisa kakhulu liphelile, kukho umda kuphela ekukhuleni koqoqosho kuwo nawuphi na umjikelo onikiweyo, kwaye kuthetha ukubuyisela umva kuya kubangela ukuba iimarike zihlale zirhola kwaye zibuyise umva kwinqanaba elithile, ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukeneyo.
Siza kwazi ngakumbi, malunga nenqanaba lomonakalo owenziwe ngabatyali-mali kwiimarike zase-USA abaye bachaphazeleka kwiingqondo zabo, nje ukuba iimarike zivulwe eNew York emva kwemini ngoMvulo. Akufane kwenzeke ukuba sibenakho ukulinganisa isimo sengqondo kwimarike yexesha elizayo ngeCawa ngokuhlwa kwakusasa ngoMvulo kwindawo exinene ngolo hlobo. NgoLwesithathu amanani e-CPI amva nje e-USA aya kuba yeyona nto ijongwe kakhulu kwi-inflation kwiminyaka emininzi, ngokusekelwe kumabango okuba uloyiko lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, olubangelwa kukunyuka kwemivuzo, lubangele i-selloff. I-Treasury bond yeminyaka elishumi ifikelele kwi-2.88% ngoLwesihlanu, iminyaka emine ephezulu.
Inye kuphela indlela evavanyiweyo yokuthintela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso- ukunyusa izinga lenzala de imali yangaphakathi inyuke. Imali eyomeleleyo yenza ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso avela kumazwe angaphandle kwehle. Nangona kunjalo, ulawulo lwase-USA kunye ne-FOMC/Fed banomsebenzi wokulinganisa onzima kakhulu wokuqhuba; bafuna ukukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwemveliso kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwaye idola ephantsi ifezekisa le njongo, ngokwethiyori. Kodwa amaxabiso avela kumazwe angaphandle ayenyuka kwaye i-USA iyaphumelela ngenxa ye-80% yoqoqosho oluqhutywa ngabathengi kunye noluxhomekeke kuqoqosho, kwaye ezo zinyukayo iindleko zemathiriyeli ekrwada ephuma kumazwe angaphandle nazo ziyakubetha abavelisi. Ngaba i-dollar yase-US yawela kakhulu kwi-2017, ngaba i-FOMC idinga ukuphakamisa ngokugqithiseleyo kwaye kutheni i-panic market isandul 'ukwenzeka, ngenxa yokuba kwi-2.1% ye-CPI ayinzima kakhulu?
Isibhengezo seso sibhengezo ngoLwesithathu ukuba i-CPI ibuyele kwi-1.9% YoY, ukuba le nkcazo ibonisa ukuba ichanekile ngoko ukukhululeka kunokubangela ukuba izabelo ziqale ukunyuka, mhlawumbi zibuyisele umhlaba wazo olahlekileyo. Ukuba amaxabiso e-equity awabuyiseli ngokusekwe kumanani ancitshisiweyo e-CPI, ngoko abahlalutyi banokuqala ukubuza ukuba kukho ezinye izinto ezininzi ezixhasa isizathu sokutsala umva, ithiyori ethe yafumana intembeko eninzi ngexesha leeseshoni zeveki ephelileyo.
NgoMvulo lusuku oluzolileyo lweendaba zekhalenda yezoqoqosho, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-Swiss CPI kuqikelelwa ukuba kuza kwi--0.2% ngoJanuwari kunye ne-0.8% YoY. Ingxelo yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali yenyanga evela e-USA lusuku olulandelayo olubalulekileyo lwekhalenda; ukulindela kukuwa okuthobekileyo kwenyanga kaJanuwari ukuya kwi-$ 51.0b ukusuka kwi-$ 51.3b.
« Ngeliphi ixesha apho i-USA Fed kunye nolawulo lwase-US luthathela ingqalelo i-USD ukuba iphantsi kakhulu? Njengoko i-CPI (inflation) yamva nje ikhutshwa, ngaba iBhanki yaseNgilani iya kubonisa ukuba ilungile ekugcineni isiseko senzala kwi-0.5%? »
