Lichelete tsa Amerika li oa 'me USD ea phahama, ha batseteli ba fetolela bopaki ba Jerome Powell joalo ka hawkish
Khalendara ea litaba tsa moruo e ne e laoloa ke metheo ea Amerika ka Labobeli ka phatlalatso ea khalendara le liketsahalo tsa lipolotiki. Molula-setulo ea sa tsoa khethoa oa Fed Jerome Powell ha a senya nako, nakong ea bopaki ba hae ka pel'a komiti ea Ntlo, ha a fana ka maikutlo a hore eena le Fed ba nahana hore litheko tsa thepa li ka ba holimo haholo mme theko ea lichelete e kanna ea ba bothata hamorao selemong. O hlahile a ea pele, ka ho sotha mohopolo oa hore, ka lebaka la moruo o matla, Fed / FOMC e ka nahana ho nyolla sekhahla sa tsoala makhetlo a mane ho 2018, ho fapana le tse tharo tse neng li boletsoe nakong ea likopano tsa FOMC qetellong ea nako. 2017. Polelo ea hae ea hawkish e hlahile hang ho felisa lipelaelo tse sallang hore ke monna oa Trump - ka taelo e hlephileng ea ho boloka litheko tsa tekano li le maemong a holimo, nako e sa lekanyetsoang. Ho ipapisitsoe le teko ena ea pele o bonahala a khona ho sebetsa ebile a khothetse ho ea pele ho mothinya, ho etsa bonnete ba hore phokotso efe kapa efe ea bubble e phatlohileng, moea o tla tsoa butle butle, ho fapana le ho phatloha ho hoholo, ka selekane sohle tshenyo e joalo ea ho oa e ka baka.
Ntle le lipolelo tsa Monghali Powell, moruo oa USA o latela mokhoa o ts'oanang le o pakiloeng ka 2017, ka ho fana ka matšoao a fapaneng ho tsoa ho data e thata le e bonolo ea moruo. Litaelo tsa thepa e tšoarellang ka Pherekhong li hlolohetsoe se boletsoeng esale pele se oang ka -3.7%, ha thekiso ea thepa e tsoetseng pele e senyehile ho ea ho $ 74.4b ea Pherekhong, ha ho ntse ho thehoa thepa ea mabenkele le mabenkele. Tšepo ea bareki e ile ea hlasela ponelopele mme ea nyoloha haholo ka Hlakubele ho isa ho 130.8.
Limmaraka tsa tekano USA li ile tsa rekisoa hampe, ha USD e ile ea ipeha kotsing ea ho itsamaisa, ka ho phahama. Ho phahama ho totobetseng ke bahoebi ba FX ba nkang nako e telele ea ho becha hore likhahla tse 'ne tsa tsoala li tla etsa hore USD e nyolohe haholo nakong ea 2018, ho tloha lilemong tsa eona tsa morao-rao tse fapaneng, ho bapisoa le lithaka tsa eona tse ngata. USD e ile ea phahama hoo e ka bang ka 0.6% ha e bapisoa le EUR, 0.4% ha e bapisoa le GBP le 0.4% ha e bapisoa le JPY, index ea dolara e ile ea tsoela pele ho hlaphoheloa ho tloha ho romella lilemo tse tharo tse tlase mathoasong a Hlakola, ho nyoloha ka approx. 0.5% ka letsatsi. Khauta e ile ea hloleha ho sebetsa e le sebaka se sireletsehileng sa setso mebarakeng ea lichelete e rekisoang, e theohela libekeng tse peli tlase mme ka circa 1.2%. WTI le eona e ile ea oa, hoo e ka bang. Ho oa ha 1.5% ho emetse ho oa ho hoholo ka ho fetisisa ho bonoeng libeke tse peli. Sehlahisoa sa bonto ea Treasury ea lilemo tse leshome se nyolohetse ho 2.91%.
Yuro
EUR / USD e rekisitsoe ka mokhoa o pharalletseng oa letsatsi le letsatsi nakong ea likhoebo, e roba S1 qalong ea lenaneo la New York, theko e ile ea tsoela pele ka mokhoa oa eona oa letsatsi le letsatsi oa ho roba S2, ea koala circa 0.6% ho 1.223, circa 300 pip theoha ho tloha ha e fihla holimo selemo le selemo ka la 16 Hlakola. EUR / CHF e hlahisitse tloaelo ea letsatsi le letsatsi, e oela ka S1, theko e ts'osetsoa ho tlola S2, e koala circa 0.5% ho 1.148. E shebiloeng chate ea letsatsi le letsatsi EUR / CHF e ne e bonts'a litšobotsi tsa khale tsa dojo ha u sebelisa liluloana tsa mabone tsa HA. EUR / JPY e oele ka 200 DMA, leha e shebiloe chate ea letsatsi le letsatsi ts'ireletso e bonahala e nyoloha haholo ho feta likerese tse tharo tsa letsatsi le letsatsi tse fetileng, theko e ferekantsoeng nakong eohle ea mananeo; ha limmaraka tsa Europe li bula theko e nyoloha ka R1, hore e oele ka PP ea letsatsi le letsatsi, ho oela ho S1, ho koala letsatsi ho theosa le 0.2% ho 131.3.
HO SEBELISA
GBP / USD e rekisitsoe ka bongata bo batlang bo le thata le leeme ho ea tlase, qalong e nyoloha ka PP ea letsatsi le letsatsi ha London e bula, ts'ireletso e ile ea fana ka phaello ea eona ea ho oela ka S1, ea koala circa 0.4% ho 1.390. Ts'ireletso e file li-pips tse fetang 300 ho tloha ha e hatisa selemo le selemo ka la 25 Pherekhong. GBP / JPY e rekisitse ka lehlakoreng le batlang le le thata ho tloha ka la 14 Hlakola, joalo ka ha ho pakoa ke theko e ts'oaroang lipakeng tsa 200 DMA le 100 DMA. Ka Labobeli theko e bonts'itse boits'oaro ba khale ba ho shapa, bo phahama ka bongata le leeme la bearish; e nyoloha ka PP ea letsatsi le letsatsi, ebe e khutlela morao ntlheng ea pivot, ho roba S1, ho khutlisa boemo ba PP ba letsatsi le letsatsi, ho fana ka phaello hape ho koala circa 0.1% ho 149.2.
LOLOLO LA US
USD / JPY e ile ea tsoa maemong a thata lenaneong la New York, ea phatloha ka R1 ho fihlela ka R2, ea khutlisa mohele oa 107.00, ea koala letsatsi ho tsoa ho 0.4% ho 107.35. USD / CHF e rekisitsoe ka mekhahlelo e thata ea letsatsi le letsatsi ka leeme ho ea holimo, ho tloha ho PP ea letsatsi le letsatsi, theko e tlotsoeng ka R1, ho hana boemo ba pele ba ho hanyetsa, ho theoha morao ho tloha holimo ka letsatsi ho 0.939, ho koala letsatsi ho fihlela 0.2% ho 0.938. USD / CAD e nyolohile haholo moetlong o tsitsitseng ho tloha qalong ea Hlakola, theko e nyolohile ho tloha ho circa 1.2240 ho isa 1.2770, phahama ea liphaephe tse 430, ha e ntse e roba DMA ea 200 le 100 DMA bekeng e fetileng. Nakong ea liboka tsa Labobeli ba babeli ba lichelete ba ne ba rekisa ka mokhoa o pharaletseng oa letsatsi le letsatsi, ba roba R1, ho ntša R2, ho koala 0.6% ho 1.277.
Gold
XAU / USD e lahlile hoo e ka bang 1% nakong ea mekhahlelo ea Labobeli, e fihla tlase ho 1,318, mme e ts'osetsa ho nka 1,308 ea selemo le selemo. Theko e roba S2, e koala ka 1,318. DMA ea 100 hajoale e qotsitsoe ho 1,299 mme e tlameha ho nkuoa e le boemo ba sepheo se nepahetseng, haeba tšepe ea bohlokoa e ntse e tsoela pele ho oa ha eona haufinyane.
LITLHAKU TSE KHOLO TSE BOTSOANG KA LA 27 FEBRUARY.
• DJIA e koetse 1.16%
• SPX e koetse 1.27%.
• FTSE 100 e koetse 0.10%.
• DAX e koetse 0.29%.
• CAC e koetse 0.01%.
LITLHAKISO TSA SEHLOOHO TSA K'HALENDA EA MORUO KA LA FEBRUARY 28th.
• Tekanyetso ea likopo tsa tlhokeho ea mosebetsi ea EUR Jeremane sa (FEB).
• Khakanyo ea Index ea Theko ea Bareki ea Euro-Zone (YoY) (FEB).
• Tšebeliso ea Botho ea USD (4Q S)
• Likopo tsa kalimo ea ntlo ea MBA MBA (23 FEB).
• USD Gross Domestic Product selemo le selemo (QoQ) (4Q S).
• USD Kakaretso ea Theko ea Lihlahisoa tsa Lapeng (4Q S)
LIKETSAHALO TSA K'HALENDA TSE BATLANG HO BONOLOA KA LABORARO LA LA 28 FEBRUARY.
Le ha lipalo tsa ho hloka mosebetsi tsa Jeremane li lebelletsoe ho lula li sa fetohe ho 5.4% YoY ka Hlakubele, tsepamiso ea litaba tsa Europe e tla ba ho palo ea morao-rao ea EZ CPI, eo hona joale e leng ho 1.3% YoY ponelopele ke ea ho oela ho 1.2%. Phallo ena ea theko e ka ba le litlamorao tse tebileng ho boleng ba EUR le lithaka tsa eona, kaha ECB e amehile mabapi le boleng bo holimo ba chelete ea bloc e le 'ngoe.
Ho na le likhatiso tse ngata tsa khalendara ka Laboraro tse lokelang ho shebeloa ka hloko ke bahoebi ba FX, lipalo tsa ts'ebeliso ea motho ka mong li ka fana ka leseli mabapi le khatello ea theko ea kahare, ha likopo tsa ntlo tse oeleng haholo ka Pherekhong ka lebaka la mathata a linako tsa selemo. sesupo sa boits'epo ba bareki ba lokelang ho nka mokoloto o moholo. Leha ho le joalo, ke lipalo tsa GDP, tse etselitsoeng selemo le selemo le Q4, tseo barekisi le bahlahlobi ba tla tsepamisa maikutlo ho tsona ha ba lokolloa. Le ha tebello e le ho oela selemo le selemo ho 2.4% ho tloha 2.5%, barekisi ba FX ba tla lekola tokollo mabapi le boitlamo ba Fed ba ho nyolla sekhahla sa phaello, ho ipapisitsoe le tumelo ea molulasetulo e mocha oa Fed Jerome Powell; hore kholo ea moruo oa USA e matla ka ho lekana ho amohela kholo e ka bang 1% ea tsoala, ka mekhahlelo e mene ka 2018.
« Likhoebo tsa USA li ntse li tsoela pele ho khutla morao, USD e phahama, ha batseteli ba ntse ba emetse molulasetulo oa Fed Powell ponahalo ea pele ho phanele ea Ntlo Limmaraka tsa lichelete tsa Amerika li na le khoeli e mpe ka ho fetesisa ho tloha ka 2016, e putlame haholo, ha lipuisano tsa European Union li hlahisa mocheso morerong oa mmuso oa UK oa Brexit »
