Limmaraka tsa lichelete tsa Amerika li na le khoeli e mpe ka ho fetesisa ho tloha ka 2016, e putlame haholo, ha lipuisano tsa European Union li hlahisa mocheso morerong oa mmuso oa UK oa Brexit
Hlakola 2018 e ipakile e le e 'ngoe ea likhoeli tse sa tsitsang le tse moferefere bakeng sa mebaraka ea lichelete, e pakiloeng ka lilemo tse ngata. Khoeli e koetsoe ka ho oa ho hoholo mebarakeng e ka sehloohong ea lichelete (DJIA le SPX), e bonoeng ka lilemo tse peli. Ho oa ha Hlakubele bakeng sa DJIA ke -4.28%, SPX e ngolisitse ho oa -3.89%. Le index ea NASDAQ, e ileng ea phonyoha boholo ba tokiso ea mmaraka e ileng ea ba teng mathoasong a Hlakola, e koetse khoeli ka ho oa ha -1.86%. Limmaraka tsohle tse tharo li ntse li ngolisa ho phahama ha 2018, ka khatiso ea NASDAQ selemo ho fihlela joale e nyolohile ka holimo ho 5.3%, empa ntle le pelaelo, batseteli limmarakeng tsa equity (mohlomong lefats'eng ka bophara), ba hlotsoe ho khutlisa ts'epo ea bona ea 2017, kamora ho rekisa nang le boiphihlelo pejana khoeling.
Haeba batseteli ba ne ba batla molula-setulo e mocha oa Fed Jerome Powell ho ba fa lebaka la ho reka litheko kapa ho boloka chelete, ba tla be ba tlohetsoe maobane maobane ka bopaki ba hae ba hawkish ho phanele ea Ntlo, nakong eo a ileng a etsa tlhahiso ea hore Fed / FOMC e tla khomarela leano la eona la ho nyolla sekhahla sa tsoala ka makhetlo a mararo ho 2018. Leha ho le joalo, seo se ka fetisetsoa ho tse 'ne, haeba eena le komiti ea hae ba lumela hore moruo oa USA o matla ho lekana ho mamella letoto la likhahla tse joalo. Baetsi ba mmaraka le bareki ba baholo ba setoko, joale ba pentiloe ka khoneng; likhoebo ha li khone ho sebelisa chelete e theko e tlase ho kenya chelete ka theko ea setoko ho romella litheko li phahame ho latela bohloka, li ke ke tsa nolofatsa habonolo seo li seng li se tšoere, li ke ke tsa kalima ka theko e tlase ho nahana, likhoebo ha li sa tla khona ho fihlella nalaneng lichelete tse theko e tlase ka hona phaello ea bona e tla putlama.
Litaba tsa hore GDP ea Amerika e hlolohetsoe se boletsoeng esale pele, e kenang ka 2.3% bakeng sa Q4, e ke ke ea re tšelisa haholo, ha ho nahanoa hore YoY ea selemo le selemo, palo ea GDP e fihlile hantle ho 2.5%. Ts'ebeliso ea motho e ile ea oela Q4, 'me lihlahisoa tse tala le peterole tsa phahama, tsa baka hore litheko li oele phapanyetsanong ea matla. Lintlha tsa morao-rao tsa USA tse emetseng tsa thekiso ea lapeng li ferekantse; tebello e ne e le ho phahama ha 0.5% kamora ho putlama hoa linako tsa selemo ka Pherekhong, Pherekhong ho ngolisitsoe ho -4.7% ho oa, ho nka ho oela ha YoY ho -1.7%. Hape, metric e joalo e ka sebetsa e le sesupo sa hore haeba bahlahlobi le bashebelli ba mmaraka ba ka sheba tlasa bonnet ea makoloi a moruo a USA, ba tla fumana hore enjene e fosahetse.
Babali ba kamehla ba li-blog le likholomo tsa rona ba tla hlokomela hore re tsoetse pele ho lemosa bareki mabapi le boemo bo ntseng bo tsoela pele le bo hlahang ba Brexit, le hore na e tla qala ho ama boleng ba sterling (e ileng ea natefeloa ke kholo ea 2017) ha nako e ntse e ea March 2018 tsoa. Mmuso oa UK ha o sa ikhanyetsa feela, empa o qala ho kenella lintoeng tsa kahare, tsa kahare. Tlhahiso ea moeli oa khoebo khoebong ea Ireland, ke tlou e ka phapusing, e bontšang ho le thata ho e hlokomoloha le ho e qoba.
Michel Barnier, mohokahanyi ea ka sehloohong ho ea ka pono ea EU, o hlahisitse tokomane ea moralo oa molao oa EU ka Laboraro, e nang le melao ea Brexit, eo tonakholo ea UK e ileng ea e hana hanghang. Mong Barnier o ile a tlameha hape ho hopotsa tsamaiso ea UK hore ba na le likhoeli tse leshome le metso e meraro feela ho hlophisa ho tsoa ha bona. Kamehla 'muelli oa liphatlalatso, nehelano ea hae e ne e qoba bohale le pherekano, tlhaloso e ke keng ea sebelisoa ho UKPM oa mehleng John Major, ea ileng a tabola ho hloleha ha mokha oa hae oa Tory ho fana ka mmapa o momahaneng oa ho tsoa ho fihlela joale. GBP / USD e oetse haufi le 1%, ha e babatsehang e oele khahlanong le lithaka tsa eona tse ling.
HO SEBELISA
GBP / USD e rekisoa ka mokhoa o pharalletseng oa letsatsi le letsatsi, ho hatisa matsatsi a mahlano a intraday a tlase ho 1.375, ho koala letsatsi ho theosa le 0.8%, ha o ntse o roba S2, ho 1.375. Banyalani ba ka sehloohong ba lichelete joale ba lahlehetsoe ke li-pips tsa 450, ho tloha ha ba romella selemo sa bona ho fihlela joale bekeng ea boraro ea Pherekhong. DMA ea 100 e bonoa ho 1.354, mme e ka shebisoa, haeba mokhoa oa bearish o ntse o tsoela pele. Ponto ea UK e oele ka karolo e fetang 1% khahlanong le yen, GBP / JPY e putlama ka karolo ea boraro ea ts'ehetso le 200 DMA, e koala ka circa 1.3% ho 146.8. Yen o ne a bonahala e le sebaka se sireletsehileng ha a bapisoa le lithaka tse ngata, nakong ea khoebo ea mots'eare.
LOLOLO LA US
USD / JPY e rekisitsoe ka mokhoa o moqotetsane oa letsatsi le letsatsi, o ts'osetsa ho oela boemong ba bobeli ba ts'ehetso nakong ea seboka sa New York, ho koala letsatsi ho theosa le 0.5% ka letsatsi ho 106.6. USD / CHF e rekisitsoe ka mokhoa o pharalletseng oa letsatsi le letsatsi, e roba R2, e koala circa 0.7%, kaholimo ho mola oa bobeli oa ho hanyetsa R2, ho 0.944. Franc ea Switzerland e oetse haholo khahlanong le lithaka tsa eona tse ngata nakong ea liboka tsa Laboraro. USD / CAD e boetse e rekisa ka mokhoa oa letsatsi le letsatsi, e nyolohang ka R1, e ts'osetsang ho roba R2, e koala circa 0.5% ho 1.283.
Yuro
EUR / GBP e rekisitsoe ka mokhoa o pharaletseng, o tloaelehileng oa letsatsi le letsatsi, o nyoloha ka R2, o koala letsatsi ho isa ho 0.7% ho 0.886, ho fihlela boemo bo holimo bo bonoang bekeng mme qetellong ho tlola 100 DMA. EUR / USD e theohile haholo ho tloha ha ho hatisoa selemo ho fihlela joale ka la 16 Hlakola, theko e theohile ho tloha ho circa 1.25 ho isa ho 1.219. EUR / JPY e rekisitsoe ka mokhoa o pharalletseng oa letsatsi le letsatsi, o oela boemong ba boraro ba tšehetso S3, e koala circa 1.1% ho 130.05, haufi le ho roba mohala o boima oa 130.00.
Gold
XAU / USD e rekisoa ka tsela e moqotetsane haholo, e mahlakore nakong ea khoebo ea letsatsi, e potoloha ho potoloha letsatsi le leng le le leng, ho ngodisa litefiso tse phahameng tsa 1,318 nakong ea khoebo ea letsatsi le tlase ea 1,317, theko eo tšepe ea bohlokoa e koetsoeng ka eona khoebo ea letsatsi ka. Theko e ntse e le kaholimo ho 100 DMA e bonoang ho 1,300, sepheo se ke keng sa hlokomolohuoa, ho fanoe ka maikutlo le moetlo oa bearish, o bonoang chate ea letsatsi le letsatsi ho tloha bohareng ba Hlakola.
LITLHAKU TSE KHOLO TSE BONAHALANG KA LA 28 FEBRUARY.
• DJIA e koetse 1.50%.
• SPX e koetse 1.11%.
• FTSE 100 e koetse 0.69%.
• DAX e koetse 0.44%.
• CAC e koetse 0.44%.
LITLHAKISO TSA SEHLOOHO TSA K'HALENDA EA LITABA TSA Moruo 1
• CHF. Sehlahisoa sa Lelapa (YoY) (4Q).
• GBP. Mokoloto oa Litšenyehelo oa Basebetsi (JAN).
• EUR. Sehlahisoa sa Lelapa sa Kakaretso sa Selemo le selemo (YoY) (2017).
• USD. PCE Core (YoY) (JAN).
• USD. Tlhahiso ea ISM (FEB).
• USD. Mosebetsi oa ISM (FEB).
• JPY. Index ea Theko ea Bareki ea Tokyo (YoY) (FEB).
K'HALENDA E TSELETSA BATHO LEBONA KA MOTSOALLE NAKONG EA LABONE LA LA 1 PELE.
Franc ea Switzerland e ile ea rekisoa nakong ea liboka tsa Laboraro, lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa GDP li reretsoe ho lokolloa ka Labone, mme ponelopele e tla nyolohela ho 1.7% YoY ho fihlela Q4. Mabapi le hore na ponelopele ena e atamelang e sebelisitse boleng ba CHF ha e na bonnete, leha ho le joalo, ha sephetho se lokolloa, boleng ba franc ea Switzerland bo ka hlahlojoa. Li-PMI tse ngata tsa tlhahiso ea Eurozone lia lokolloa mabapi le: Italy, France, Jeremane le bloc e pharalletseng ea khoebo ea Eurozone, PMI ea tlhahiso ea UK le eona ea lokolloa. Litaba tse ling tsa Europe tsa tlhokomeliso li mabapi le lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa kalimo ea bareki ea UK le tumello ea mokoloto oa ntlo.
Hang ha mebaraka ea USA e buloa re tla fumana lintlha tsa morao-rao tsa lekeno le tšebeliso ea motho ka mong. Ka lebaka la letsoalo le akaretsang la motseteli le bontšitsoeng pejana khoeling, le neng le shebane le infleishene mme haholoholo infleishene ea meputso, metric ena e kanna ea shebeloa ka hloko bakeng sa matšoao afe kapa afe a bofokoli ba bokhoni ba bareki, kapa takatso ea bona ea ho e sebelisa. Litemana tsa morao-rao tsa ISM bakeng sa tlhahiso le mosebetsi ho la USA le tsona li tla phatlalatsoa, metric ea bohlokoa e maemong a holimo haholo (ho latela tšusumetso) ho batseteli ba Amerika ho feta, ka mohlala, litlhahlobo tsa PMI.
« Lichelete tsa Amerika li oa 'me USD ea phahama, ha batseteli ba fetolela bopaki ba Jerome Powell joalo ka hawkish Likhetho tsa Italy tsa 2018 li sa tsoa fihla matsatsi a 'maloa. Bakhethoa ba bohlokoa ke bo-mang le hore na EUR e ka ameha joang? »
