Pomwe ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri za CPI (inflation) zikutulutsidwa, Kodi Bank of England izitsimikizira kuti chiwongola dzanja chake chili pa 0.5%?
Pa February 13th pa 9.30AM bungwe lowerengera ku UK la ONS, lifalitsa ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri zakukwera kwachuma ku UK. Ziwerengero zama inflation zikuphatikiza: CPI, RPI, inflation yayikulu, kulowetsa, kutulutsa ndi kukwera kwamitengo ya nyumba. Ndizo ziwerengero zazikulu za CPI, mwezi ndi mwezi komanso chaka, zomwe zidzayang'aniridwa ndi akatswiri ndi osunga ndalama ndipo zomwe zanenedwa zitha kupangitsa msika ku UK ukamasulidwa, ngati kuneneratu kukwaniritsidwa.
Chiwerengero cha kukwera kwamitengo pamwezi chikuyembekezeka kugwera mpaka -0.6% mu Januware, kuchokera pamlingo wa 0.4% mu Disembala. Chiwerengero cha chaka chikuyembekezeka kugwa mpaka 2.9% ya Januware, kuchokera ku 3% mu Disembala. Kugwera m'malo olakwika m'mwezi wa Januware, kuyimira 1% kwathunthu kuchokera pachisindikizo cha 0.4% cha Disembala, zitha kutenga ndalama kwa ambiri (omwe alephera kukhalabe pamwamba pazofufuza zomwe zikubwera) modabwitsa Bank of England nkhawa zokhudzana ndi kukwera kwamitengo, zomwe amafalitsa pamsonkhano wawo atolankhani sabata yatha.
A BoE adatinso za mantha akukwera kwamitengo kwakanthawi kochepa, ngati chifukwa chomveka chankhani yawo ya hawkish yomwe idaperekedwa sabata yatha, pomwe sanasankhe chilichonse chokhudza chiwongola dzanja cha ku UK. A Mark Carney adapereka chitsogozo chotsimikiza kuti osunga ndalama azikonzekera chiwongola dzanja chambiri pazaka zikubwerazi; kukwera kungakhale kokwera komanso mwachangu. Adakana kupereka nthawi, komabe, mgwirizanowu udawoneka kuti ukukwera katatu kwa 0.25% kumapeto kwa 2019, ndikutsika mpaka 1.25%. Komabe, chenjezo komanso kunyalanyaza komwe kungachitike mtsogolo, zitha kukhala zovuta pazokambirana za Brexit m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi ikubwera, zotsatira za Brexit kuyambira Marichi 2019 kupita mtsogolo komanso magwiridwe antchito azachuma aku UK munthawiyo.
UK mapaundi adakwera kwambiri pambuyo pa lingaliro loyambira la BoE komanso msonkhano wotsatira wa atolankhani; chingwe (GBP / USD) chinawuka ndipo EUR / GBP idagwa. Komabe, zopindulitsazo zinali zakanthawi kochepa pomwe mantha a Brexit adawonekeranso, sterling idabwereranso kumalengezedwe a BoE, motsutsana ndi ndalama zake ziwiri zazikulu. Ngati kulosera kwa MoM kwa kugwa kwa -0.6% kumakhala koona, kapena kuwerengera koyipa pafupi ndi chiwerengerochi kudalembedwa, ndiye kuti ziwonetsero za BoE ndi mantha okhudzana ndi kutsika kwa zinthu zitha kukhala zosachedwa, chifukwa mapaundi atha kugulitsidwa, osunga ndalama akuwona kuti nkhawa zazachuma zakokomeza.
MFUNDO ZOFUNIKA ZAUZIMU KU UK ZOKHUDZA KWAMBIRI KUMASULIDWA.
• GDP YoY 1.5%.
• GDP QoQ 0.5%.
Chiwongola dzanja cha 0.5%.
• Mtengo wama inflation wa 3.0%.
• Mulingo wopanda ntchito 4.3%.
• Ngongole zaboma v GDP 89.3%.
• Ntchito PMI 53.
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