Kodi Lachisanu lomwe likuchedwa kubwereranso m'misika yamalonda lipitilira koyambirira sabata ino ndipo kodi zomwe zakubwera zidzakhudze bwanji USD?
Sabata yochuluka kwambiri pafupifupi zaka ziwiri kuti USA ikugulitsidwe malonda atatsekedwa Lachisanu latha lapitali ngati zizindikirozo zatha kumalo abwino; DJIA ku 1.39%, SPX ku 1.49% ndi NASDAQ ku 1.44%. Zizindikirozi tsopano zachokera kumalo okonzedwanso (otchedwa ngati pansi 10% kuchokera pachimake chaposachedwa), koma akadali kulembetsa chaka kufikira lero, DJIA pansi -2.14% ndi SPX pansi -2.04%. Chisokonezo pakati pa osamalima chikuwoneka kukhala wamanjenje, zomwe sizosadabwitsa chifukwa chakuti ndondomeko yayikulu yayambira kuchokera ku circa 12,000 mu 2012, mpaka kufika pafupi kwambiri. 26,600, phindu lapadera la 121% peresenti. Zaka 5. Kuwuka kotereku kwachititsa kuti mabanki ambiri m'misika ya US asakhale osayang'anitsitsa ndikuyang'ana misika yogwirizana monga njira imodzi yogulitsira, motero sadziwa zambiri ndipo sali okonzeka kukonza, kapena kubala misika.
Pakati pa chiwerengero chochepa cha chiwongoladzanja, komwe kubwezeretsa kusungidwa kosakhalapo, kwa anthu ambiri payekha misika imapereka mpumulo ndi malo othawirako ndalama zawo. Mwadzidzidzi iwo akuyenera kusankha; kodi amachoka ndi kupita kuzinthu zina, kapena amakhalabe ndi ndalama? Ngati iwo akusunthira ndalama zawo kunja kwa msika, kodi ali ndi chuma chotani? zitsulo zamtengo wapatali, ndalama, mgwirizano? Kapena kodi tsopano akufunikira kuphunzira luso lapamwamba la momwe angapezere zizindikiro zochepa? Luso limene amalonda ambiri amayesetsa kuti likhale langwiro.
Pogwiritsa ntchito njira yanu kupitilira kumapeto kwa sabata zachuma, pamene misika yatsekedwa pambuyo pa sabata loopsya, lingaliro lonse likuwoneka kuti misika imakhala nthawi yowonjezera. Zili ngati kuti babu akungosinthidwa mosavuta monga a zachuma, a zachuma ndi olemba, pa mlingo woyendetsa misika yathu, mwadzidzidzi anazindikira zimenezo; Kuphatikiza chiwerengero cha chiwongoladzanja cha US kuchokera ku 0.75% kufika ku 1.5% ku 2017 ndipo FOMC yomwe ikuopseza katatu ku 2018 pamsonkhano wawo wa December 2017, ikhoza kukhala ndi zotsatira zoyipa pazoyendera, ngakhale kudulidwa kwa msonkho kwa Trump.
Zimatengera nthawi kuti msika uwu udodometsedwa kuti uiwale, akugulitsa malonda, opanga malonda ndi oyendetsa msika adzayandikira misika m'njira yowonjezereka kwambiri pa masabata akubwera ndipo mwanjira imeneyo mwina kukonzekera kuyenera kuyang'ana bwino; izo zapanga kuyitana kwaukaup. Kuyembekeza kuti misika idzabwezeretsere malire nthawi zonse ndi kupusa, panthawi ina malamulo a zachuma, masamu komanso mwina physics amatha. Nthawi ya kubwereka / kubwereka kwachisawawa kwatha, pali malire a kukula kwachuma muyeso iliyonse, ndipo kutanthauza kuti kubwezeretsa kudzachititsa kuti misika iwonongeke ndikubwezeretsanso pazifukwa zosiyanasiyana.
Tidziwa zambiri, ponena za mlingo wa zowonongeka kwa azimayi ku misika ya USA yazunzidwa ndi maganizo awo, kamodzi kogulitsa misika ku New York Lolemba madzulo. Sitikudziwa kuti tidzatha kudziwa momwe zinthu zidzakhalira mtsogolo msika Lamlungu usiku madzulo Lolemba mmawa mu malo ovuta kwambiri. Lachitatu, ziwerengero zatsopano za CPI za USA zidzasungidwa mwatsatanetsatane kuwonjezeka kwa chiwombankhanga kwa zaka zambiri, malinga ndi kunena kuti mantha a inflationary, omwe amayamba chifukwa cha kuwonjezeka kwa malipiro, adayambitsa selloff. Chaka cha khumi chachuma chafika ku 2.88% Lachisanu, chapamwamba cha zaka zinayi.
Njira imodzi yokha yomwe amayesedwa ndi kuyesedwa pofuna kuchepetsa kutsika kwapakati-kukweza mitengo ya chiwongoladzanja mpaka ndalama zapakhomo zikukwera. Ndalama yowonjezereka imayambitsa kutsika kwapangidwe kwamtengo wapatali kugwa. Komabe, kayendetsedwe ka USA ndi FOMC / Fedza zili ndi zovuta zowonongeka zochitika; iwo akufuna kulimbikitsa kuchuluka kwa kupanga ndi kutumiza kunja ndipo ndalama zochepa zimakwanitsa cholinga ichi, mwachidule. Koma mitengo yamtengo wapatali ikukwera ndipo USA ikukwera chifukwa cha 80% yogulitsidwa ndi ogulitsa komanso chuma chokhazikika, ndipo omwe akukwera kunja ndalama zopangira ndalama adzagwedeza opanga. Kodi dola ya ku America inagwera kwambiri ku 2017, kodi FOMC imafuna kuwonjezera mwamphamvu ndipo n'chifukwa chiyani malonda akugwedezeka posachedwapa, popeza kuti 2.1% CPI sivuta kwambiri?
Ulosiwu ndi wa chilengezo chachitatu kuti CPI yabwereranso ku 1.9% YoY, ngati izi zikuwonetseratu kuti zili zolondola ndiye kuti mpumulo ukhoza kuchititsa kuti mayiko ayambe kuwuka, mwinamwake kubwezeretsa malo awo otayika. Ngati chiwerengero cha chiyero sichidzabwezeretsedwe pogwiritsa ntchito chiwerengero chochepa cha CPI, ndiye akatswiri angayambe kukayikira kuti pali zifukwa zina zambiri zomwe zinayambitsa chifukwa cha kuwombera, chiphunzitso chomwe chinapeza maumboni ambiri pamisonkhano yama sabata.
Lolemba ndi tsiku lokhazikika pa nkhani za kalendala zachuma, Swiss CPI inflation imaneneratu kuti idzafika -0.2% kwa January ndi 0.8% YoY. Ndondomeko ya bajeti ya mwezi uliwonse kuchokera ku USA ndi kutulutsidwa kwa kalendala yotsatira pa tsiku; chiyembekezero ndi kugwa mofulumira kwa mwezi wa January mpaka $ 51.0b kuchokera ku $ 51.3b.
« Panthawi yomwe Fedha ya US ndi US ikuyenera kuwona kuti USD ndi yotsika kwambiri? Pomwe ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri za CPI (inflation) zikutulutsidwa, Kodi Bank of England izitsimikizira kuti chiwongola dzanja chake chili pa 0.5%? »
