Kungani abathengisi be-FX bedinga ukuqapha isinqumo sesilinganiso se-FOMC kanye nesitatimende sengqungquthela yabezindaba sikaJerome Powell esalandela
NgoLwesithathu January 30, ngo-7:00pm ngesikhathi sase-UK, i-FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) izodalula isinqumo sayo mayelana nezinga lenzalo elibalulekile lomnotho wase-USA. Izinga lamanje lingu-2.5% futhi lo mcimbi wekhalenda olindelwe ngabomvu, ubikezelwa ukuthi ngeke ubangele ushintsho esilinganisweni, ngokusho kwezinhlangano zezindaba ze-Reuters ne-Bloomberg, ngemva kokuba besanda kuhlola iphaneli yabo yosomnotho.
I-FOMC yakhiwe izinhloko/izihlalo zamabhange esifunda ase-Federal Reserve, asebenza ngokuhambisana noSihlalo we-Fed u-Jerome Powell, ukuphatha inqubomgomo yezimali yase-USA. Ikomidi lathatha isinqumo phakathi nonyaka ka-2018, sokwamukela inqubomgomo yemali yama-hawkish; bakhuphule amanani ngo-0.25% isikhathi ngasinye, ukuze baqale lokho okubizwa ngokuthi “inqubo yokujwayela”; umzamo wokubuyisela izinga lenzalo elibalulekile mhlawumbe libe yinkambiso yomlando engu-3.5%, ekupheleni konyaka wezi-2019. Isibopho sabo ukulawula le nqubo, ngaphandle kokuphazamisa ukusimama komnotho okusobala kanye nokukhula kwe-GDP, umnotho omkhulu wembulunga yonke oye wabhekana nakho, kusukela ngaleso sikhathi. ukubalekela ukuwohloka komnotho okukhulu.
Phakathi nekota yokugcina ka-2018 futhi ngaphezu kwalokho phakathi namasonto okugcina onyaka, izimakethe zezabelo ze-USA zehla, i-DJIA, SPX kanye ne-NASDAQ bonke bavala unyaka ngobomvu, kuyilapho i-Santa Rally edumile, ukwanda kwentshiseko kwakamuva kwamanani entengo. , yehluleka ukuvela okokuqala ngemva kweminyaka eminingi. UMongameli uTrump wabeka icala lokuwohloka kobuphathi bukaMnu. Powell, ejikijela icala empini yakhe yezohwebo, ngendlela yentela kanye nokuvinjelwa kweChina neYurophu.
Lezo zimpi zohwebo kubikezelwa ukuthi zibe nomthelela ezibalweni zakamuva ze-GDP yase-USA, lapho zishicilelwa ngoLwesithathu ntambama, ngaphambi kokuthi i-FOMC ihlelelwe ukuveza isinqumo sayo. Isibikezelo se-Reuters singokwehla sifike ku-2.6% we-GDP yonyaka, sisahlaba umxhwele, kodwa sihlehla kakhulu ekukhuleni okucishe kube ngama-4% umnotho wase-USA osanda kuba nakho. I-FOMC ingase ibone kusenesikhathi izibalo ze-GDP njengoba ihlangana izinsuku ezimbili kusukela ngoLwesibili, noma ingase icabangele isibalo sangempela uma sesishicilelwe, esingathonya isinqumo sabo sezinga lenzalo.
Akusona nje isimemezelo sangempela sezinga lenzalo esingase sibangele ukuthi izimakethe zethu ze-FX zihambe; abahlaziyi, abenzi bezimakethe kanye nabahwebi ngabanye, bazoqapha ngokucophelela isithangami sabezindaba uJerome Powell ophethe isigamu sehora kamuva, nganoma yimiphi izinkomba mayelana noshintsho lwenqubomgomo yezimali.
Bonke abahlanganyeli be-FX bazolalela ubufakazi, ngokulandela isiqondiso sangaphambili, ukuze bathole ukuthi uMnu Powell kanye ne-FOMC baye bashintsha yini inqubomgomo yabo. Ikakhulukazi, bazobe belalele ngokucophelela noma ibuphi ubufakazi esitatimendeni sakhe, bokuthi i-FOMC ne-Fed iyihlehlile inqubomgomo futhi yamukela isimo esibucayi kakhulu. Okuzoholela ekutheni ibhange lombuso kanye nekomidi lingaqinisi inqubomgomo (ukwenyuswa kwamanani) ngodlame njengoba bebekade bechaza.
Kodwa-ke, isitatimende singaqinisekisa ukuthi i-FOMC isasendleleni yokunyusa amanani ngo-2019, njengokwezibopho zayo zangaphambilini. Bangase babe nokukhathazeka mayelana: ukukhula komhlaba wonke, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuhle, ukwehla kwe-GDP, izimpi zohwebo neChina, kodwa zilungiselele ukubeka lokhu kukhathazeka ohlangothini olulodwa ukholelwa ukuthi inqubo yokulinganisa izinga ayikwazi ukumiswa okwesikhashana, ngokusekelwe kudatha yakamuva.
Noma ngabe yisiphi isinqumo, noma ngabe yikuphi ukulandisa okwethulwa nguMnu. ebhange elikhulu. Unalokho engqondweni, abadayisi be-FX bazokwelulekwa ukuthi badalule izehlakalo, ukuze babe sesimweni sokuphatha izikhundla zabo kanye nokulindelwe kwe-USD.
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