Septhemba 20 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-12913 • 5 Amazwana ethi When the Tree Falls, the Monkeys Scatter – 树倒猢狲散
Izaga zesiShayina, ungase uchithe iminyaka ufunda izitanzana ezimfushane ngenkathi ucabanga ngencazelo futhi uthotshiswe ukuhlakanipha kwesiko lasendulo elisungule, lanciphisa futhi lahlukanisa izehlakalo ezithile zempilo zibe imishwana emifushane eguquguqukayo.
Imibono ye-Yoda njengezikhulu zaseShayina, zicabanga ngenhlonipho ngamaparele azo ezomnotho, ngokuhlebeza okuthulile emhlanganweni wamamandarin, kuyilapho uhlezi ezihlalweni ezihlotshisiwe ezihlotshiswe ngegolide ezicijile emithunzini yempepho emagumbi amnyama acatshangelwa kalula. Lawa maparele okuhlakanipha abe esephenduka inqubomgomo, ebamba abanye abadlali emdlalweni, enxenxa ophikisana naye ngobumnene ukuthi azithobe ekuhlakanipheni kwakhe ngokuphambene namandla angokwenyama.
Ukuthi amaShayina adlala umdlalo omfushane noma cha, umdlalo omude, nanoma yimuphi umdlalo akunakwenzeka ukubalekela umuzwa nenkolelo yokuthi ngokwezomnotho, ngokwesiko nangokomdlalo wegeyimu okhaliphile siphumile ngokuphelele (e-Europe nase-USA) wokujula komnotho wethu uma sizama 'ukuncintisana' neChina.
Abahlaziyi bemakethe abehlukene kanye nosomnotho abahlonishwayo basho ngokungananazi ukuthi amaShayina agcine eshintshile amatafula, athi nawo adinga isilo sabathengi sase-USA ukuze sikhule ngaphandle kwalokho ukukhula kwawo komnotho kuzominyazwa, noma ukuthi ngokubamba isamba esingu-$1 trillion sesikweletu somcebo wase-USA. empeleni ngamaShayina 'akwi-pickle' hhayi i-USA. Kodwa-ke, lezi zimangalo zivame ukuvela e-USA abaphathi bayo bamanje, njengePhini likaMongameli u-Joe Biden, bakhombise ukuzithoba okwanele ngesikhathi sokuvakasha kwakamuva kwe-Beijing ukuze babonise ukukhathazeka kwabo nokwazi indawo yabo. Izimangalo zokungaphumeleli kokugcina kwenqubomgomo yaseShayina nazo zivela ezikhwameni zothango ezixhunywe kahle ezinenqwaba 'yesikhumba emdlalweni'.
Izindaba namuhla ziye zavela ukuthi iBhange LaseShayina, inkampani enkulu emakethe emakethe yezokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe eChina, imise ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe futhi ishintshanisa ukuhweba namabhange amaningana aseYurophu ngenxa yenkinga yezikweletu eYurophu, imithombo emithathu enolwazi oluqondile lwe udaba utshele abeReuters ngoLwesibili. Amabhange ase-Europe ahlanganisa ababolekisi baseFrance i-Societe Generale, i-Credit Agricole ne-BNP Paribas, kanye ne-Bank of China imise ukuhweba nawo ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga likaMoody's, kusho imithombo. Elinye ibhange laseShayina lithe seliyekile ukuhwebelana ngama-yuan senzalo namabhange aseYurophu. Ethintwa ngalesi sinyathelo samabhange aseChina, abakhulumeli beSociete Generale, UBS kanye neBNP Paribas banqabile ukuphawula. UCredit Agricole akatholakalanga ukuba aphawule.
I-Bank of China nayo iyekile ukuhwebelana ne-UBS ngemuva kokulahlekelwa kwalelo bhange ngo-$2.3 billion ngenxa yehlazo lokuhweba elibi. Amabhange ase-Asia nakwezinye izindawo abenciphisa imigqa yezikweletu kanye nokuchayeka emabhange aseYurophu phakathi nezinyanga ezimbalwa ezedlule, engazimisele ukubeka engcupheni yokungakhokhi i-Greece, nanoma yiliphi elinye izwe laseYurophu.
Lesi senzo se-China akufanele silinganiselwe. Ukuthi ukuvukela kweShayina emnothweni we-Eurozone kulezi zinsuku ezimbili ezedlule bekuyiqiniso, noma ukuthi (emzamweni omkhulu wokuthenga isikhathi) amahemuhemu okusekela i-Euro kwaseShayina avela embonini ye-spin yomkhakha wangaphakathi kahulumeni wase-Italy awabalulekile. Okubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi iShayina, ngokusebenzisa ibhange laseShayina, 'ikhulumile' futhi abenzi bezinqubomgomo akufanele bangakhohliswa ngobucayi nokubaluleka kwalokhu kudelelwa. Kokubili ngokwezokuxhumana nakwezomnotho kuyigalelo elikhulu.
Phakathi kwemibono egqamile futhi ephikisanayo uma kuqhathaniswa nokubusa unomphela kwe-China kukhona umphathi we-hedge fund u-Hugh Hendry onesikhwama se-Eclectica esiqhume ngenani phakathi nezinyanga ezimbili ezedlule njengoba izimakethe zomhlaba zehla futhi ontanga yezimboni bebhekene nomonakalo omkhulu wokuthola imali. Umbono kaHendry ngeChina awuyona imfihlo, ulindele ukuphahlazeka okufana neJapan ngeminyaka yawo-1920 eChina futhi unesikhumba emdlalweni ngokwamaShayina akhe. Emuva ngoMeyi 2011 u-Hendry wenze inhlolokhono neBusiness Week lapho aphakamisa khona ukuthi kube nokufana okumangalisayo neJapan ngeminyaka yawo-1920, lapho ekugcineni lonke uhlelo lwawohloka. I-China, ngokombono wayo ocatshangelwayo, ingadala inkinga enkulu kakhulu kwenye indawo emhlabeni. I-Hendry's flagship Eclectica Fund, isikhwama se-global macro hedge fund esinempahla eyizigidi ezingama- $ 180, singazuza cishe amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-500 ezinhlelweni zayo uma umnotho waseChina uwela esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho.
U-Hendry ukholelwa ukuthi ukuba sengozini kweChina kokuphahlazeka kuvela “ekungazinzini kwayo okungokwemvelo” okudalwe ukuboleka ngokweqile amaphrojekthi engqalasizinda “okungakaze kubonwe eminyakeni engama-400 yomlando wezomnotho”. Izwe liphinde livezwe ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe emnothweni wase-US ongahle wehle usuka ku- $14.6 trillion ekupheleni kukaMashi uye ku- $10 trillion kungakapheli iminyaka eyishumi, kusho yena.
“Izwe laseChina lisemseni webhamuza lesikweletu. Uma usulikhiphile i-genie likhona. Abazinzile ekugcineni futhi yilokhu kungazinzi okudala ukushona kwabo.” U-Hendry ubikezela ukuthi ibhamuza laseShayina lingase liqhume ungakapheli unyaka, noma kungathatha iminyaka emithathu, ucaphuna osomnotho be-Citigroup Inc. uWillem Buiter noShen Minggao njengabasekeli bombono wakhe. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi i-Hang Seng okwamanje yehle cishe ngo-13.5% unyaka nonyaka u-Hendry angafakazelwa ukuthi ulungile.
[typography font=”IM Fell DW Pica” size=”18″ size_format=”px” color="#c70626″]冰 凍 三 尺 非 一 日 之 寒
Usuku olulodwa lwezinga lokushisa elingaphansi kweziro alwanele ukudala amafidi amathathu eqhwa.[/typography]
[typography font=”IM Fell DW Pica” size=”18″ size_format=”px” color=”#8f031a”]熊瞎子摘苞米，摘一个丢一个
Ibhele eliyimpumputhe likha ummbila, likha owodwa bese liwisa owodwa.[/typography]
chinainhlekelele ye-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambili
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Lapho Isihlahla Siwa, Izinkawu Ziyasakazeka - 树倒猢狲散
Septhemba 20 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-12913 • 5 Amazwana ethi When the Tree Falls, the Monkeys Scatter – 树倒猢狲散
Izaga zesiShayina, ungase uchithe iminyaka ufunda izitanzana ezimfushane ngenkathi ucabanga ngencazelo futhi uthotshiswe ukuhlakanipha kwesiko lasendulo elisungule, lanciphisa futhi lahlukanisa izehlakalo ezithile zempilo zibe imishwana emifushane eguquguqukayo.
Imibono ye-Yoda njengezikhulu zaseShayina, zicabanga ngenhlonipho ngamaparele azo ezomnotho, ngokuhlebeza okuthulile emhlanganweni wamamandarin, kuyilapho uhlezi ezihlalweni ezihlotshisiwe ezihlotshiswe ngegolide ezicijile emithunzini yempepho emagumbi amnyama acatshangelwa kalula. Lawa maparele okuhlakanipha abe esephenduka inqubomgomo, ebamba abanye abadlali emdlalweni, enxenxa ophikisana naye ngobumnene ukuthi azithobe ekuhlakanipheni kwakhe ngokuphambene namandla angokwenyama.
Ukuthi amaShayina adlala umdlalo omfushane noma cha, umdlalo omude, nanoma yimuphi umdlalo akunakwenzeka ukubalekela umuzwa nenkolelo yokuthi ngokwezomnotho, ngokwesiko nangokomdlalo wegeyimu okhaliphile siphumile ngokuphelele (e-Europe nase-USA) wokujula komnotho wethu uma sizama 'ukuncintisana' neChina.
Abahlaziyi bemakethe abehlukene kanye nosomnotho abahlonishwayo basho ngokungananazi ukuthi amaShayina agcine eshintshile amatafula, athi nawo adinga isilo sabathengi sase-USA ukuze sikhule ngaphandle kwalokho ukukhula kwawo komnotho kuzominyazwa, noma ukuthi ngokubamba isamba esingu-$1 trillion sesikweletu somcebo wase-USA. empeleni ngamaShayina 'akwi-pickle' hhayi i-USA. Kodwa-ke, lezi zimangalo zivame ukuvela e-USA abaphathi bayo bamanje, njengePhini likaMongameli u-Joe Biden, bakhombise ukuzithoba okwanele ngesikhathi sokuvakasha kwakamuva kwe-Beijing ukuze babonise ukukhathazeka kwabo nokwazi indawo yabo. Izimangalo zokungaphumeleli kokugcina kwenqubomgomo yaseShayina nazo zivela ezikhwameni zothango ezixhunywe kahle ezinenqwaba 'yesikhumba emdlalweni'.
Izindaba namuhla ziye zavela ukuthi iBhange LaseShayina, inkampani enkulu emakethe emakethe yezokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe eChina, imise ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe futhi ishintshanisa ukuhweba namabhange amaningana aseYurophu ngenxa yenkinga yezikweletu eYurophu, imithombo emithathu enolwazi oluqondile lwe udaba utshele abeReuters ngoLwesibili. Amabhange ase-Europe ahlanganisa ababolekisi baseFrance i-Societe Generale, i-Credit Agricole ne-BNP Paribas, kanye ne-Bank of China imise ukuhweba nawo ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga likaMoody's, kusho imithombo. Elinye ibhange laseShayina lithe seliyekile ukuhwebelana ngama-yuan senzalo namabhange aseYurophu. Ethintwa ngalesi sinyathelo samabhange aseChina, abakhulumeli beSociete Generale, UBS kanye neBNP Paribas banqabile ukuphawula. UCredit Agricole akatholakalanga ukuba aphawule.
I-Bank of China nayo iyekile ukuhwebelana ne-UBS ngemuva kokulahlekelwa kwalelo bhange ngo-$2.3 billion ngenxa yehlazo lokuhweba elibi. Amabhange ase-Asia nakwezinye izindawo abenciphisa imigqa yezikweletu kanye nokuchayeka emabhange aseYurophu phakathi nezinyanga ezimbalwa ezedlule, engazimisele ukubeka engcupheni yokungakhokhi i-Greece, nanoma yiliphi elinye izwe laseYurophu.
Lesi senzo se-China akufanele silinganiselwe. Ukuthi ukuvukela kweShayina emnothweni we-Eurozone kulezi zinsuku ezimbili ezedlule bekuyiqiniso, noma ukuthi (emzamweni omkhulu wokuthenga isikhathi) amahemuhemu okusekela i-Euro kwaseShayina avela embonini ye-spin yomkhakha wangaphakathi kahulumeni wase-Italy awabalulekile. Okubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi iShayina, ngokusebenzisa ibhange laseShayina, 'ikhulumile' futhi abenzi bezinqubomgomo akufanele bangakhohliswa ngobucayi nokubaluleka kwalokhu kudelelwa. Kokubili ngokwezokuxhumana nakwezomnotho kuyigalelo elikhulu.
Phakathi kwemibono egqamile futhi ephikisanayo uma kuqhathaniswa nokubusa unomphela kwe-China kukhona umphathi we-hedge fund u-Hugh Hendry onesikhwama se-Eclectica esiqhume ngenani phakathi nezinyanga ezimbili ezedlule njengoba izimakethe zomhlaba zehla futhi ontanga yezimboni bebhekene nomonakalo omkhulu wokuthola imali. Umbono kaHendry ngeChina awuyona imfihlo, ulindele ukuphahlazeka okufana neJapan ngeminyaka yawo-1920 eChina futhi unesikhumba emdlalweni ngokwamaShayina akhe. Emuva ngoMeyi 2011 u-Hendry wenze inhlolokhono neBusiness Week lapho aphakamisa khona ukuthi kube nokufana okumangalisayo neJapan ngeminyaka yawo-1920, lapho ekugcineni lonke uhlelo lwawohloka. I-China, ngokombono wayo ocatshangelwayo, ingadala inkinga enkulu kakhulu kwenye indawo emhlabeni. I-Hendry's flagship Eclectica Fund, isikhwama se-global macro hedge fund esinempahla eyizigidi ezingama- $ 180, singazuza cishe amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-500 ezinhlelweni zayo uma umnotho waseChina uwela esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho.
U-Hendry ukholelwa ukuthi ukuba sengozini kweChina kokuphahlazeka kuvela “ekungazinzini kwayo okungokwemvelo” okudalwe ukuboleka ngokweqile amaphrojekthi engqalasizinda “okungakaze kubonwe eminyakeni engama-400 yomlando wezomnotho”. Izwe liphinde livezwe ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe emnothweni wase-US ongahle wehle usuka ku- $14.6 trillion ekupheleni kukaMashi uye ku- $10 trillion kungakapheli iminyaka eyishumi, kusho yena.
“Izwe laseChina lisemseni webhamuza lesikweletu. Uma usulikhiphile i-genie likhona. Abazinzile ekugcineni futhi yilokhu kungazinzi okudala ukushona kwabo.” U-Hendry ubikezela ukuthi ibhamuza laseShayina lingase liqhume ungakapheli unyaka, noma kungathatha iminyaka emithathu, ucaphuna osomnotho be-Citigroup Inc. uWillem Buiter noShen Minggao njengabasekeli bombono wakhe. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi i-Hang Seng okwamanje yehle cishe ngo-13.5% unyaka nonyaka u-Hendry angafakazelwa ukuthi ulungile.
[typography font=”IM Fell DW Pica” size=”18″ size_format=”px” color="#c70626″]冰 凍 三 尺 非 一 日 之 寒
Usuku olulodwa lwezinga lokushisa elingaphansi kweziro alwanele ukudala amafidi amathathu eqhwa.[/typography]
[typography font=”IM Fell DW Pica” size=”18″ size_format=”px” color=”#8f031a”]熊瞎子摘苞米，摘一个丢一个
Ibhele eliyimpumputhe likha ummbila, likha owodwa bese liwisa owodwa.[/typography]
chinainhlekelele ye-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambili
« I-Italy yehliselwa phansi futhi manje sekuyithuba likaBerlusconi lokubiliswa Ukuqonda Ukulindela Okuhle Ekuhwebeni Kwangaphambili »