Ukuqonda Ukulindela Okuhle Ekuhwebeni Kwangaphambili
Phakathi kwamakhulu ezincwadi zokuhweba ezitholakalayo indaba yokuphathwa kwemali ayikaze ixoxwe, okuqukethwe okuyinhloko kwezincwadi zokuhweba ngokuvamile kunamasu, amaphethini, amafomula. Bhekisisa izinombolo zezivakashi ezigabeni zenkundla encane futhi uzothola ngokushesha ukuthi okugxilwe kakhulu kumasu namasu, izinkundla zokuphatha imali zinokhula oluvunguza phakathi kwazo. Kodwa-ke, njengengxenye yokuphatha imali ngempumelelo komdayisi nokuziphatha kubalulekile ukuqonda isikhathi okulindelekile ngaso.
Kuyini ukulindela?
Ukulindela yinani elimaphakathi ongalilindela ukuliwina (noma ulahlekelwe) ngeyunithi ngayinye yohlobo lwemali engcupheni. Nansi ifomula yesikhathi esilindelekile:
I-Expectancy = (Amathuba Okuwina * I-Average Win) – (Amathuba Okulahlekelwa * Ukulahlekelwa Okumaphakathi)
Sizosebenzisa ama-Euro ezibonelweni esizikhethayo ukuze sibonise ukuthi yini okulindelekile nokuthi ukuyithola 'ilungile' kungayisiza kanjani inzuzo yakho. Kodwa okokuqala nakhu ababhali ababili abahlonishwayo kanye nezomnotho imicabango mayelana okulindelekile;
UDkt. Van K. Tharp:
Uhlelo lwakho lokuhweba kufanele lube nokulindela okuhle futhi kufanele uqonde ukuthi lokho kusho ukuthini. Ukuchema okungokwemvelo abantu abaningi abanakho ukuya kumasistimu amakhulu anokuthembela okuphezulu. Sonke sinikezwa lokhu kuchema okumele ukwenze ukuthi ulungile. Sifundiswa esikoleni ukuthi amaphesenti angama-94 noma ngaphezulu uno-A kanti u-70 noma ngaphansi awuphumeleli. Akukho okungaphansi kuka-70 okwamukelekayo. Wonke umuntu ufuna izinhlelo zokungena ezinokwethenjelwa okuphezulu, kodwa ubude bayo obungukhiye. Futhi ukhiye wangempela wokulindela ukuthi uphuma kanjani ezimakethe hhayi ukuthi ungena kanjani. Uyithatha kanjani inzuzo nokuthi uphuma kanjani esimweni esibi ukuze uvikele impahla yakho. Isikhathi esilindelwe siyinani ozolenza ngokwesilinganiso ngedola ngalinye elisengozini. Uma unendlela yokwenza eyenza ube namasenti angu-50 noma kangcono ngedola ngalinye elisengozini, kuhle kakhulu lokho. Abantu abaningi abakwenzi. Lokho kusho ukuthi uma ubeka engcupheni u-$1,000 ozowenza ngokwesilinganiso esingu-$500 kukho konke uhwebo - lokho kuwukulinganisa abawinile nabahluliwe ndawonye.
Nassim Taleb:
Kwamanye amasu nezimo zokuphila, kuthiwa, umuntu ugembula ama-dollar ukuze awine amasenti alandelanayo. Kwabanye umuntu uzifaka engcupheni yokulandelana kwamasenti ukuze awine amadola. Nakuba umuntu engacabanga ukuthi isigaba sesibili singakhanga kakhulu kubatshalizimali nama-ejenti ezomnotho, sinobufakazi obuqand’ ikhanda bokuduma kwesokuqala.
Isibalo sokulindela:
- Iphesenti lokuwina 6%
- Isilinganiso sokuwina 60%
- Amaphesenti okulahlekelwa ngu-4%
- Izinga lokulahlekelwa ngu-40%
Ngakho-ke isikhathi esilindelwe yi-2.0% ngokuhweba ngakunye, noma (6% x 60%) - (4% x 40%).
Ngakho-ke, ngokwesilinganiso sokuhweba, i-2% yemali edayiswayo iyinzuzo. Manje, ekuhlolweni kokuqala okungenzeka kungafundi njengembuyiselo ehloniphekile. Uma ukuhweba kwakho okumaphakathi kungu-€10,000 kusho ukuthi u-2% yinzuzo engu-€200 ngokuhweba ngakunye. Kodwa-ke, uma unokuhwebelana okungu-300 ngonyaka, khona-ke unenzuzo engu-€60,000 ngonyaka ngokuhwebelana okumaphakathi kwama-euro ayi-10,000 kuphela. Lokhu akubandakanyi noma iyiphi inzuzo uma unquma ukuhlanganisa uhwebo ngalunye.
Lapho behlola 'ifomula yokulindela', abathengisi basheshe babone ukuthi ayikho isethi eyodwa 'yezinombolo' enikeza isikhathi esilindelekile, kodwa kunenombolo engapheli yamasethi ngakho-ke (ngokombono) kunenombolo engapheli yezinhlelo zokuhweba ezingase zivele. ube nenzuzo. Lowo musho wokugcina unzima kubathengisi abaningi (abaqalayo nabanolwazi) ukuthi bawubambe njengoba udabula izindwangu zokuhweba - ukuhweba okuhlelekile / komshini. Imodeli yokulindela iphakamisa ukuthi ngisho nezinhlelo ezingahleliwe zingaba nenzuzo uma ukuphathwa kwemali kuzwakala. Imodeli yokulindela ingase futhi ibe nomthelela kwenye inkolelo yokuhweba; kungenzeka ukuthuthukisa amasistimu kusetshenziswa isikhathi esilindelekile kanye nosayizi wesikhundla (ingozi iyonke) njengezisekelo eziyisisekelo lapho ukulahlekelwa kokuma kukhulu kunomgomo wenzuzo. Ukulahlekelwa kokuyeka kungase kubhekwe njengokungafuneki, uma isikhathi sakho senzuzo sihle.
Singasebenzisa ukweqisa okuhlobene, sibeke ukulahlekelwa kokuma okungu-20% kanye nethagethi yenzuzo engu-5% futhi siphume nokulindela okungu-2% uma izinga lokuwina liphezulu ngokwanele. Izinga lokuwina elingu-88% kulesi sibonelo lizoveza u-2.0%, umphumela (5% x 88%) - (20% x 12%). Ungase ube nokulindela okuhle ngamazinga okuwina aphansi kakhulu.
Enye yezinombolo zeminyaka elindelekile edume kakhulu isuka ohlelweni lwe-CAN SLIM. I-CAN SLIM isho i-mnemonic enamacala ayisikhombisa eshicilelwe yiphephandaba laseMelika i-Investor's Business Daily, elithi liwuhlu lokuhlola izici ezenza isitoko esivame ukwabelana ngazo ngaphambi kwezinzuzo zazo ezinkulu. Ithuthukiswe umhleli weBusiness Daily yabatshalizimali uWilliam O'Neil okubikwa ukuthi wenze amakhulu ambalwa ezigidi zamaRandi ngokusebenzisa njalo indlela yakhe.
Ukubamba ngekhanda:
Izingxenye eziyisikhombisa ze-mnemonic zimi kanje:
C imele Iholo lamanje. Ngesheya ngalinye, umholo wamanje kufanele ufinyelele ku-25%. Ukwengeza, uma imali engenayo ikhula ngesivinini ezindaweni zakamuva, lokhu kuwuphawu oluhle lokubikezela.
A imele Iholo Lonyaka, okufanele lenyuke ngo-25% noma ngaphezulu eminyakeni emithathu edlule. Izinzuzo zonyaka ngokulinganayo kufanele zibe ngu-17% noma ngaphezulu
N imele umkhiqizo omusha noma isevisi, okubhekisela embonweni wokuthi inkampani kufanele ibe nombono omusha oyisisekelo obhebhezela ukukhula kweholo okubonwa ezingxenyeni ezimbili zokuqala ze-mnemonic. Lo mkhiqizo yiwo ovumela isitoko ukuthi siphume kuphethini yeshadi efanele yenzuzo yaso edlule ukusivumela ukuthi siqhubeke sikhula futhi sifinyelele ukuphakama okusha kwentengo. Isibonelo esiphawulekayo salokhu i-iPod ye-Apple Computer.
S imele i-Supply and demand. Inkomba yesidingo sesitoko ingabonwa ngevolumu yokuhweba yesitoko, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi sokwenyuka kwentengo.
L imele Leader noma laggard? U-O'Neil uphakamisa ukuthenga "isitoko esihamba phambili embonini ehamba phambili". Lesi silinganiso esithize sekhwalithi singalinganiswa ngokuhle kakhulu nge-Relative Price Strength Rating (RPSR) yesitoko, inkomba eklanyelwe ukukala intengo yesitoko ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezedlule uma kuqhathaniswa nayo yonke imakethe ngokusekelwe ku-S&P 500 noma i-TSE 300 ngesikhathi esimisiwe.
I imele uxhaso Lwesikhungo, olusho ubunikazi besitoko nge-mutual funds, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni zakamuva. Isilinganiso sobuningi lapha Isilinganiselwa Sokunqwabelana/Sokusabalalisa, okuyigeji yomsebenzi wesikhwama esihlangene esitokweni esithile.
M imele izinkomba zeMakethe, ikakhulukazi i-Dow Jones, i-S&P 500, ne-NASDAQ. Ngesikhathi sokutshalwa kwezimali, u-O'Neil uncamela ukutshala izimali ngezikhathi zokunyuka okuqondile kwalezi zinkomba ezintathu, njengoba izitoko ezintathu kwezine zivame ukulandela iphethini yemakethe evamile.
Uma sisebenzisa izinombolo zokuma neziqondiso zika-O'Neil zika-8% no-20% kanye nezinga lakhe lokuwina elishicilelwe lika-30%, isikhathi okulindelekile singabalwa ukuthi: (20% x 30%) - (8% x 70%) noma + 0.4%. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ibhizinisi lakhe ngalinye lilindele u-0.4%. Nakuba ebusweni bayo i-0.4% ROI ibonakala iyimbuyiselo enesizotha ngokuhweba ngakunye uma ukuzethemba okungu-100% kukhona kule ndlela khona-ke amathuba enzuzo makhulu.
Ukulindela kufanele kube kuhle uma ufuna ukwenza inzuzo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ungalokothi usebenzise uhlelo olunoziro noma olunegethivu okulindelekile, awukwazi ukunqoba. Ngeke wenze imali eningi ngaphandle uma unamathuba amaningi okuhweba, kuyilapho i-CAN SLIM ka-O'Neil ingase ibe nomkhawulo, uma kubhekwa ihlobene kakhulu nesitoko kune-forex, ayikho leyo mikhawulo kumapheya e-forex. Ukwazi indlela yokudala indlela, (okungenani ephepheni), ngokulindela okuhle kuyinkinga eyodwa, kodwa uma sithuthukisa uhlelo olunokulindela okungu-8% futhi uhlelo lukhiqize ukuhweba okukodwa kuphela ngonyaka, ngeke kuhwetshwe. Ukube besinendlela ekhiphe u-0.2% ngokuhweba ngakunye futhi lolo hlelo lukhiqize ukuhweba okungu-1,000 ngonyaka izikhathi eziyi-1,000 u-0.2% bekungaba imali ebucayi kakhulu ngesikhathi esifushane kakhulu.
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