ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWEVEKI 7/12 - 11/12 | UKUQOQWA KWE-USD NGESIKHATHI SOKUQHUBEKA KWENDABUKO YINDABA EDINGA UKUDALULA OKWENGEZIWE
Kunezici eziningana ezazilawula isonto lokuhweba eliphela ngoDisemba 4. UCovid kanye nethemba lokugoma, uBrexit, izinhlaka ezifayo zokuphathwa kukaTrump, kanye nezingxoxo zokuvuselela amabhange amakhulu nohulumeni. Lezi yizinkinga eziqhubekayo ze-macroeconomic ezingahle zilawule ukuthambekela namaphethini esiwabonayo kumashadi wethu we-FX nesikhathi esibekiwe ezinsukwini nasemasontweni azayo.
Umphumela weCovid ezimakethe zokulingana
Ngaphandle kwesifiso sokugoma esivele phakathi nesonto, ohulumeni abehlukene balwa nenselelo yokusabalalisa le mithi ngaphandle kokuphazamisa amandla. Isidakamizwa sikaPfizer sisebenza kuphela ngo -70c, ngakho-ke ukuhambisa umuthi ongahloliwe ngaleyo ndlela kuze kufinyelele engalweni yothile kumelela umsebenzi owawungakaze wenziwe. Futhi, asazi ukuthi umuthi wokugoma uvimbela ukudluliswa okungabonakali noma ukuthi uhlala isikhathi esingakanani.
I-USA iqophe abantu abacishe bafike ku-3,000 200,000 kanye namacala ayi-450 amahle ngosuku ngalunye kulezi zinsuku ezisanda kwedlula kanti nochwepheshe babikezela ukuthi lezi zinombolo zizoba zimbi kakhulu ngaphandle kokuthi i-USA yamukele inqubomgomo ebumbene yokugqoka imaski. Ngaphandle kwalesi silinganiso, izwe libhekene nokufa kwabantu abangaphezu kuka-1K ngoMashi 100, ngokusho kukaJohn Hopkin's University. UJoe Biden uphakamisa inqubomgomo yezinsuku eziyikhulu yokugqoka imaski ngemuva kokugcotshwa kwakhe.
Ngaphandle kokubulawa kukaCovid namanani amacala afinyelela kumarekhodi aphezulu, izinkomba zokulingana zase-USA zinike amandla phambili, zakhipha amarekhodi aphezulu. Ayikho imfihlakalo yokuthi kungani iWall Street ichuma ngenkathi uMgwaqo Omkhulu uwa; isikhuthazo semali nesezimali ezivalelwe ezimakethe. Abukho ubufakazi bokungena phansi; Abantu abadala baseMelika abayizigidi ezingamashumi amabili nanhlanu njengamanje bathola izinzuzo zomsebenzi, kepha izimakethe zikhipha amarekhodi aphezulu.
Ukuwa kwe-USD kubonakala kungapheli
Idola laseMelika belilokhu lehla kakhulu emasontweni edlule. Kokubili ukuphathwa kukaTrump kanye nokuphathwa kweBiden okungenayo akunakwenzeka ukulungisa lolu daba.
Idola elibuthakathaka linenzuzo eyodwa ebucayi; kwenza ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kushibhile, uhlangothi lwe-flip ukukhuphuka kwemali, kodwa ku-ZIRP (inqubomgomo yenzalo yesilinganiso senzalo) ukwehla kwamandla emali kufanele kugcinwe kuhlolwe.
Idola elibhidlizayo kungumphumela ongenakugwenywa wezigidigidi zamadola ezishukumisayo i-Fed ne-USA govt abazibandakanye ekuvuseleleni umnotho oshaywe yiCovid. Uma iCongress neSenate ekugcineni zingavuma esinye isigaba sokukhuthaza kuleli sonto elizayo, singalindela ukuthi idola lihlale libuthakathaka.
Ngesikhathi sokuhweba eLondon ngoLwesihlanu ekuseni, inkomba yedola (DXY) ithengiswe eduze nefulethi ngo-90.64. Lapho ukhumbula ukuthi inkomba ibambe isikhundla esiseduze ne-100 kule minyaka edlule, ukuwa kuyalinganiswa. I-DXY yehle cishe isondele -6% unyaka kuze kube manje, futhi yehla -1.29% masonto onke.
Inani le-USD uma liqhathaniswa ne-euro libuye lilinganise ukungabi nesifiso sokubamba amadola. Futhi kubalulekile ukuthi wazi ukuthi i-ECB isebenzisa izinqubomgomo ze-ZIRP ne-NIRP okungafanele zikhombise i-euro njengenketho yokuphepha. I-EUR / USD ibidayisa ngo-0.13% esimisweni sasekuseni; kukhuphuke ngo-2.93% njalo ngenyanga kanye no-8.89% unyaka kuze kube manje.
Ku-1.216 i-currency pair edayiswa kakhulu ihweba ngezinga elingabonwa kusukela ngo-Ephreli-Meyi 2018. Uma kubhekwa eshadini lansuku zonke, ukuthambekela kuyabonakala kusukela ekupheleni kukaNovemba, futhi abadayisi be-swing kuzodingeka baqaphe isimo ngokucophelela mhlawumbe ngokulungisa ukulandela kwabo kuyama ukuqinisekisa ukuthi bagcina iphesenti lezinzuzo.
IBrexit esondelayo ayikalifinyeleli inani le-sterling okwamanje
I-UK manje sekusele izinsuku ezingama-27 ukuthi iphume ezweni lama-27 lokuhweba nge-EU, futhi yize uhulumeni wase-UK ecindezela inkulumo-ze esindisa ubuso ngomzuzu wokugcina, iqiniso eliqondile lihlala likhona; i-UK ilahlekelwa ukufinyelela emakethe okukodwa. Abantu, izimpahla, imali kanye nezinsizakalo ngeke zisakwazi ukuhamba ngokungemthetho futhi ngaphandle kwamanani.
Abahlaziyi nabahlaziyi bezimakethe kudingeka basuse amehlo abo kumashadi abo futhi baqonde izinxushunxushu ezingaba khona kusukela ngoJanuwari 1. I-UK ingumnotho ngo-80% othembele emisebenzini nakumthengi, imigwaqo yamaloli ayisikhombisa amamayela emachwebeni ase-UK izogxila ezingqondweni. Kumanje izinhlangano ezithwala abantu zithela umphakathi ukuthi ulindele amashalofu angenalutho ezitolo ezinkulu.
Ubuthakathaka beDola kulo lonke ibhodi buvune i-GBP; i-sterling ikhuphuke kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa ne-USD ngezizathu ezimbili; ubuthakathaka bedola nethemba likaBrexit. Ukwehla kwe-USD emasontweni adlule kungenzeka kufihle ukungavikeleki okuzungeze i-GBP.
Esikhathini saseLondon ngoDisemba 4, i-GBP / USD yayidayisa -0.25% ngemuva kokuthi womabili amaqembu wezingxoxo zeBrexit ekhiphe izitatimende eziphakamisa ukuthi izingxoxo ziyawa.
Ithimba laseBrithani ligxile ngamabomu kwezokudoba, okuyimboni okungaphansi kuka-0.1% we-GDP yase-UK. Udaba lwasolwandle lushukumisa umuzwa wobuzwe nokushisekela izwe phakathi kwalawo maBrits afunda izincwadi ezimbalwa zobuchopho.
I-GBP / USD ikhuphuke nge-2.45% njalo ngenyanga futhi i-2.40% unyaka kuze kube manje. Intengo yamanje iqhelelene ngokulingana phakathi kwe-USD ne-GBP abahlaziyi abaningi babikezela ngokuzethemba ngalesi sikhathi ngonyaka odlule, ubhadane lweBlack Swan lube nemiphumela eminingi ebingalindelekile nengahlosiwe.
AbakwaSterling bathole inzuzo ebhalisiwe uma kuqhathaniswa ne-euro ngonyaka ka-2020, kanti ngesikhathi sokuqala, i-cross-currency pair EUR / GBP ithengiswe ngo-0.905 yenyuka ngo-0.33% ngenkathi isongela ukwephula i-R1. I-EUR / GBP inyuke ngo-6.36% unyaka kuze kube manje. Lokhu kukhuphuka, kuhambisana nezimali ze-antipodean ze-NZD ne-AUD nazo ezikhuphuka uma kuqhathaniswa ne-GBP, kukhombisa imizwa ebuthakathaka jikelele nokwesaba ukubamba amakhilogremu ase-UK. Iphawundi nayo yehle ngama--2.31% uma kuqhathaniswa ne-yen ngo-2020.
Igolide licwebezele njengendawo ephephile ngo-2020
Ngisho nabaphethe ama-PhDs e-physics bangazabalaza ukuchaza ukuthi kungani izimakethe zokulingana sezikhuphukile e-USA nakwamanye amazwe ukuqopha amanani aphezulu, kuyilapho izindawo zokuphepha ezinjengeSwitzerland franc, i-yen yaseJapan nezinsimbi eziyigugu zikujabulele ukuzuza okukhulu.
Igolide lenyuke ngama-20% unyaka kuze kube manje ngenkathi isiliva lenyuke ngama-34.20%. Isiliva lingene ngaphansi kwe-radar. Ngenkathi umthelela wokuqala wobhadane lweCovid ubusaphaza izimakethe ngoMashi nango-Ephreli, kwakunzima ukuthola isiliva lomzimba.
Ngaphandle kokuthola i-PM ngokusebenzisa idijithali / okubonakalayo kusho ukuyithenga ngendlela ebonakalayo kunengqondo ngokuphelele kubatshalizimali abancane. I-ounce lesiliva lingaphansi kwama- $ 25, i-ounce legolide lingu- $ 1840. Kuyisinqumo esilula kubatshalizimali abaningi abancane (kepha abakhonjisiwe), abalahlekelwe ukwethemba kwabo ohulumeni nokunikezwa kwemali.
Imicimbi yekhalenda lezomnotho ngesonto elizayo yokudayisa
Abahwebi kufanele baqaphe zonke izingqinamba ezishiwo ngenhla zomnotho omkhulu nezepolitiki ngesonto elizayo, ngaphezu kokukhishwa kwedatha nezimemezelo ezibalulwe kukhalenda. Ake sithi uhulumeni wase-USA akakwazi ukuvuma ukugqugquzela imali ethe xaxa futhi uma amacala kaCovid nokufa kukhuphuka emhlabeni jikelele futhi uma izingqinamba zeBrexi zingaxazululwa. Uma kunjalo, i-USD, i-GBP ne-EUR izothinteka.
Kodwa-ke, ukukhishwa kwedatha yekhalenda nemicimbi kusenamandla okuhambisa izimakethe zethu ze-forex, futhi ngesonto elizayo kunemicimbi ejabulisayo ehleliwe.
Ukufundwa okuhlukahlukene kwemizwa ye-ZEW ngeGerman kuyashicilelwa ngoLwesibili, ngoDisemba 8. Isibikezelo ngesokuwa, okungakhombisa ukuthi imikhakha yaseGerman isaluthola umthelela wokuwa okuhlobene neCovid.
ICanada izomemezela isinqumo sayo sezinga lenzalo ngoLwesithathu 9, kanti isibikezelo asikho ushintsho. I-CAD inyuke ngo-1.67% uma iqhathaniswa ne-USD evikini eledlule. Uma i-BoC yehlisa izinga lisuka ku-0.25% laya ku-0.00%, lezi zinzuzo zingaba ngaphansi kwengcindezi. NgoLwesine abakwa-UK ONS bazoshicilela imininingwane yakamuva ye-GDP. Isibikezelo seReuters esokwehla kokukhula okungu-1% okubhaliswe ngenyanga edlule. Ukufundwa kweQoQ kulindeleke nokuthi kwehle kusuka ku-15.5% okurekhodelwe i-Q2. I-ECB ibuye iveze izinqumo zabo zamazinga wenzalo; isilinganiso sokuboleka kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale ku-0.00%, kuthi isilinganiso sediphozi sibe ngu -0.25%. Akukho ukusikisela kokuthi i-ECB izothatha inani eliyisihlokwana elingaphansi kuka-0.00% kulesi sigaba senhlekelele yeCovid.
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